Why Italy must beat Turkey: from the possibility of the Nations League quarter-finals to the draw for the European qualifying groups as a top seed

More than three points are on the line. Italy face Turkey in Bologna this evening playing for their future in the Nations League and in qualification for the next European Championship, scheduled for 2028 in Great Britain. After the home defeat to Belgium, the Azzurri bounced back with a convincing 4-1 win in Bursa against Montella's side, then drew in Paris against Zidane's France and the phenomenon Olise. That run changed an ending that had seemed written and has lifted optimism again. Right now, Italy are third in the group on four points, two behind Belgium and three behind France, a position that leaves every scenario in play.

Nations League: the scenarios

The top two in each of the four groups reach the Nations League quarter-finals in March. Teams that finish third face two possible outcomes: the two "worst" third-placed sides and the two "best" fourth-placed sides enter a play-out against the runners-up in Serie B to stay in League A. The two "worst" fourth-placed sides drop straight into League B. A win today, if Belgium do not win in France, would make the November matches crucial in the race for the quarter-finals. In that case, three points against van Bommel's team would be needed, but there will be time to think about that. After three matches, for now, we are the "best third-placed team".

Top seeds in the Euro 2028 qualifying group stage

But there's much more at stake. A win over Turkey today would guarantee Italy at least third place in the group. No small feat: the teams finishing first, second and third in Nations League A will also be the 12 seeded sides in the draw for the Euro 2028 qualifiers (on 6 December in Belfast). Italy can't afford any slip-ups if they want to get back on track.