UEFA Nations League Preview: Turkey vs Italy – Team News, Lineups & Prediction
Turkey and Italy will both be looking to bounce back from opening-day defeats when they meet in Bursa in the UEFA Nations League on Monday evening.
Vincenzo Montella’s side suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat to France in their first-ever League A campaign, while Italy’s return under Roberto Mancini began with a 2-0 home loss to Belgium. With both nations already playing catch-up in a group that also contains France and Belgium, another slip-up could leave either side with a major uphill battle.
Match Preview
Turkey
Turkey head into the contest with plenty to prove after losing three of their last four matches. Their latest setback came against France, with Kylian Mbappe’s goal settling a closely fought encounter in Kocaeli.
However, Montella’s men can draw confidence from their impressive home record. Turkey have won nine of their last 13 outings on home soil (D2, L2). Their defeat to France also ended a ten-match unbeaten home run in the Nations League, including play-offs, during which they recorded six wins and three draws.
The biggest concern remains their attacking output. Turkey have scored more than once in just one of their six competitive matches in 2026, while they have also conceded the opening goal in each of their last five games.
Their recent home matches have mostly been low-scoring affairs, too. Only two of Turkey’s last eight competitive home fixtures saw both teams find the net. The spotlight will be on Real Madrid star Arda Guler, who has scored 12 of his last 14 goals for club and country before half-time, highlighting his tendency to make an early impact.
Italy
Italy could hardly have asked for a worse start to Mancini’s second spell in charge, suffering a 2-0 defeat to Belgium in Rome. The result marked their third loss in their last four competitive games, leaving the Azzurri under pressure to respond immediately in Bursa.
Nevertheless, the Euro 2020 winners have reasons to feel confident away from home. They won all three of their away group-stage fixtures during the previous Nations League cycle, while six of their last nine competitive away matches produced at least three goals.
Italy have also developed a habit of striking first. They have opened the scoring in eight of their last nine internationals, which could prove significant against a Turkey side that has conceded first in five consecutive games. Defensively, though, the Azzurri have work to do. They have kept only one clean sheet in their last nine Nations League outings.
Moise Kean could be a difference-maker in Bursa. The new Como striker has been on the winning side in seven of his last nine appearances in which he scored for club or country, with the other two ending in a draw and a defeat.
Head-to-Head
Italy have dominated this fixture historically and have never lost to Turkey in 13 previous meetings, recording nine wins and four draws.
The Azzurri also won the most recent competitive encounter 3-0 at Euro 2020. Interestingly, only two of the last eight meetings between the nations failed to see both teams score, although the most recent meeting ended 0-0 in June 2024.
Team News
Turkey will be without first-choice goalkeeper Uğurcan Çakır after he was sent off during their defeat to France. With the Galatasaray ace unavailable for selection, Altay Bayındır is expected to start in goal. However, Montella cannot call upon Serie A stars Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz.
Italy, meanwhile, have no fresh concerns following their loss to Belgium. Federico Dimarco, Manuel Locatelli, and Bryan Cristante remain out of the squad, with Riccardo Calafiori set to replace the Inter wingback. Meanwhile, Torino midfielder Rolando Mandragora could make his first international start since 2018.
Turkey vs Italy Potential Starting Lineups
Turkey (3-4-2-1): Bayındır; Çelik, Bardakcı, Demiral; Elmalı, Özcan, Yüksek, Kadioglu; Güler, Uzun; Yılmaz.
Italy (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Coppola, Calafiori; Barella, Frattesi, Tonali; Kean, Esposito, Cambiaghi.
Turkey vs Italy Prediction
Both sides have plenty of motivation after losing their opening Nations League fixtures, but the statistics point towards an intriguing contest.
Italy would be well-advised not to take anything for granted, especially given Turkey’s formidable home record. However, the Azzurri’s historical H2H advantage and tendency to open the scoring could prove decisive.
Prediction: Italy to Win
