Turkiye vs Belgium: The tactics board - Arda Guler's magic undone as Doku and De Cuyper overrun Turkiye's right

Arda Guler gave Sergen Yalcin a dream start to his first game in charge with a stunning free-kick, but it was not enough. Belgium hit back twice in three minutes, both times down the same flank, to win 2-1 in Izmir, keep their Nations League quarter-final hopes alive and confirm Turkiye's relegation from League A.

Mark van Bommel's side move up to second in Group 1 on nine points, knowing that a win over Italy in their final game can guarantee a place in the quarter-finals. Turkiye remain bottom without a point after five games and close their campaign away to France on Sunday.

The hosts had more of the ball, but Belgium did far more with it. Turkiye enjoyed 53% possession and completed 456 passes to Belgium's 382, yet the visitors produced 1.85 expected goals (xG) to 0.51, had 33 touches in the opposition box to 23 and created three big chances to Turkiye's two.

Yalcin made six changes from the 3-1 defeat to Italy and set up in a 4-2-3-1. Ugurcan Cakir started in goal behind a back four of Oguz Aydin, Merih Demiral, Ozan Kabak and Ferdi Kadioglu, with Ismail Yuksek and Orkun Kokcu in midfield. Guler returned to the side behind Enes Unal, back in the squad for the first time since 2024, with Yunus Akgun on the right and Baris Alper Yilmaz on the left.

Turkiye settled well, pushing into the Belgium half and waiting patiently for an opening, and they had an early penalty appeal turned down when Kokcu's pass struck Youri Tielemans. Their breakthrough came from a dead ball. Guler won a free-kick from Nicolas Raskin in the 19th minute and, from a long way out, curled it around the wall and into the top-left corner. The chance was worth just 0.04 xG, and it was his eighth goal for his country.

That was almost everything Turkiye produced before the break. They managed only two shots in the first half and reached the interval with 0.07 xG. Their best opening came in the 35th minute, when Yilmaz broke clear and was denied one-on-one by Senne Lammens, although the flag went up for offside. Yilmaz was caught offside twice, and Turkiye three times in all, while Belgium were not flagged once.

Turkiye's problem was turning territory into chances. They completed 143 passes in the final third to Belgium's 83, but had fewer touches in the box, and only two of their 15 crosses found a team-mate. Most of their attacks, 46% of them, came down the right through Aydin and Akgun, the same flank where Belgium did all their damage.

Van Bommel also made six changes after the 4-1 defeat to France and went with a 4-3-3. Lammens started in goal behind Timothy Castagne, Nathan Ngoy, Brandon Mechele and Maxim De Cuyper, with Raskin in the middle of a midfield three alongside Kevin De Bruyne and Tielemans. Romelu Lukaku missed out through injury, so Charles De Ketelaere led the line between Diego Moreira and Jeremy Doku, while De Bruyne won his 128th cap.

Belgium had the ball in the opening stages, and Doku slipped De Bruyne through as early as the third minute, forcing Cakir to rush out and clear. The plan was clear from there. Belgium sent 45% of their attacks down the left, where Doku and De Cuyper went up against Aydin, compared with 25% through the middle.

Doku got the better of Aydin in the fifth minute and was a problem all night. Aydin committed five fouls, and all of them were on Doku, while Yuksek was booked in the 50th minute for bundling the winger over. Belgium completed 14 of their 24 dribbles, while Turkiye managed four from 13.

The game was decided on Belgium's left, against Turkiye's right, the flank where both sides sent most of their attacks. Turkiye's lead lasted seven minutes. In the 27th minute, Doku beat Aydin, cut inside and found De Bruyne waiting on the penalty spot, and the midfielder guided a right-footed finish past Cakir.

Three minutes later, Belgium completed the turnaround down the same side. De Cuyper fed Moreira, whose shot was saved by Cakir, but the ball fell back to the left-back. He escaped the goalkeeper and squared for De Ketelaere to poke into an empty net. That chance alone was worth 0.79 xG, and Belgium had 1.39 xG by half-time to Turkiye's 0.07. Kabak's frustration showed soon after, as he was booked in the 32nd minute.

De Cuyper was the game's standout player. As well as the assist, he set up Moreira twice and De Bruyne once, and his ball over the top sent De Ketelaere through in the 59th minute, only for Cakir to save at his near post.

Yalcin made his first changes on 58 minutes, and they were like for like. Hakan Calhanoglu, making his first appearance for Turkiye since the World Cup, replaced Kokcu, and Deniz Gul came on for Unal. Calhanoglu lifted the hosts. He delivered a free-kick for a Kabak header in the 65th minute, had a shot blocked a minute later and then drilled an effort just wide from the centre of the box.

The second half was a different contest. Turkiye took eight of their 10 shots after the break, and their xG rose from 0.07 to 0.51, almost matching Belgium's second-half output of 0.46. At the 70-minute mark, Yalcin sent on Zeki Celik for Aydin and Salih Ozcan for the booked Yuksek, and Celik made an impact on the right. In the 82nd minute, Guler found him in space, and his ball across forced Lammens into a save from Gul. Five minutes earlier, Guler had gone down under pressure from Raskin inside the box, but the referee waved away the penalty appeals.

Van Bommel refreshed his attack in two stages. Dodi Lukebakio and Leandro Trossard replaced Moreira and De Bruyne on 69 minutes, before Mika Godts and Hugo Cuypers, on his debut, came on for Doku and De Ketelaere in the 80th minute. Belgium took their time on the ball in the Turkiye half to run down the clock, and Hans Vanaken replaced Raskin in stoppage time.

The changes did not end Turkiye's push. Lammens had to save from Gul, from a long-range Akgun effort a minute later, and, in the 92nd minute, from Calhanoglu, whose powerful shot from the right of the box was kept out by the goalkeeper's feet. Lammens finished with six saves.

Turkiye had more of the ball and scored the goal of the night, but Belgium found the weak spot on Turkiye's right and punished it twice in three minutes. Calhanoglu's introduction made the hosts far more threatening after the break, and Lammens had to work hard at the end, but the damage had already been done down Belgium's left. Van Bommel's side now take their fate into the final game against Italy, while Yalcin's first match in charge ended with Turkiye's relegation confirmed.