'Opta' predicts the Champions League winner: shocking ranking for Real Madrid, Barcelona and Paris

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The new UEFA Champions League season is almost upon us, and the predictions are already heating up. Opta's supercomputer has named the team most likely to lift the trophy, with a major surprise in store for the current holders.

Opta ran 10,000 simulations of the 2026-2027 campaign, and Arsenal came out on top with 21.2%. That put them narrowly ahead of Bayern Munich on 19.9%, with Manchester City third on 12%.

The Gunners earned their billing after an exceptional European campaign. Mikel Arteta's side reached the final last time out before losing to Paris Saint-Germain on penalties, and their performances have made them the supercomputer's standout pick for the new season.

Holders out of the race for the top spot

Here comes the twist. Paris Saint-Germain, the reigning champions, sit only fourth, with the statistical model handing them just a 7.7% chance of retaining their crown and winning the competition for a third year running.

The French side dream of writing themselves into the tournament's history with a hat-trick of titles. Yet Opta's numbers hand them no meaningful edge over their rivals, for all their success in the last two editions.

Barcelona take fifth on 7%, edging out old rivals Real Madrid, who sit sixth on 5.1%. Liverpool match that figure exactly.

A tough road lies ahead for Barcelona, with clashes against several of the continent's giants already looming. Real Madrid, meanwhile, enter the tournament desperate to reclaim their European standing despite slipping down the computer's rankings.