How often have Community Shield winners gone on to win the Premier League?

As Premier League champions, many are forecasting that this might just be the start of a period of dominance for Arsenal. All of the other usual contenders for titles, as well as Tottenham and Newcastle, have changed managers in 2026, Spurs doing so twice, leaving Arsenal the clear favourites to retain their title, something the club have not achieved since 1935.

Thus, Mikel Arteta's team will be looking to lay down something of a marker in Sunday's FA Community Shield. The Gunners will take on Enzo Maresca's Manchester City at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, hoping to enhance their silverware collection.

However, if Arsenal are victorious in the Welsh capital, would that actually be a bad omen? Well, the Community Shield curse has seemingly developed in recent years, with none of the last seven sides to triumph in the curtain raiser going on to become Premier League champions nine months later.

Community Shield winners since 2019 subsequent league finish

No Community Shield winners since Manchester City in 2018/19 have gone on to win the Premier League title in the season to come. Of course, recent winners Leicester City and Crystal Palace were never likely to do so, but this is far from a modern trend.

In fact, since 1989, only eight of 36 Community Shield winners have gone on to become champions.

Community Shield winners who have become champions that season

Thus, amazingly, Pep Guardiola's domestic quadruple winners are the only side to achieve this since 2010. On the flip side, during the same timeframe, ten Community Shield losers have been crowed champions, including the Sky Blues three times during their unprecedented streak of four in a row.

So, what about Arsenal specifically? The Gunners are 17-times Community Shield winners, including one shared title with Tottenham in 1991, so how do they tend to get on after these triumphs?

League finish after Arsenal have won the Community Shield

Amazingly, or perhaps concerningly, the last 13 times Arsenal have been Community Shield winners, they have not gone on to become champions the following season. This includes six second place finishes. The last time the Gunners did achieve this was in 1934/35, which could be a good sign.

In November of that year, George Allison's side demolished Manchester City 4-0 in the Community Shield at Highbury; Ralph Birkett, James Marshall, Ted Drake and Cliff Bastin the scorers. Fair to say, the 32,000+ Gonners travelling to Wales' capital on Sunday would settle for a repeat scoreline. That season is also the last time Arsenal retained the First Division title, scoring 115 league goals, something Arteta's team are aiming to replicate in this forthcoming campaign.

Which club has won the most Community Shields?

Arsenal sit second on the all-time Community Shield winners' list, behind Man United. Sunday will be their 25th appearance in one, drawing level with Liverpool, again behind only the Red Devils' 31.

Clubs with most Community Shield triumphs

Manchester United: 17 + 4 shared.

Arsenal: 16 + 1 shared.

Liverpool: 11 + 5 shared.

Everton: 8 + 1 shared.

Manchester City: 7.

Tottenham Hotspur: 4 + 3 shared.

Chelsea: 4.

Nevertheless, while it may be the least important, by far, of the five competitions Arsenal will enter this season, they still want to claim victory. As already noted, the Millennium Stadium on Sunday will be around 65% full of Gooners, desperate to see their team in action again after a long summer.

Speaking at his press conference on Friday, Arteta himself stated that his players are "hungry" for victory in Cardiff, adding "to start with the first trophy... we are really excited to start the season". So, despite all the historical precedent, don't worry, it's ok to want Arsenal to win this weekend.