From the top to the spectre of elimination: a catastrophic scenario haunts Zidane with France
Although the French national team went into their meeting with Italy in the fifth round of the group stage of the UEFA Nations League with the ambition of securing top spot in Group One, they now find themselves in a position that could eliminate them from the continental tournament.
France lost 3-1 to hosts Italy on Thursday, throwing their group calculations into chaos and setting up a final match against Turkey on Sunday that could end in a catastrophic exit.
Beat Italy and France would have sealed top spot before the final round. Instead they handed Zinedine Zidane the first defeat of his tenure, squandering the lead Michael Olise had given them before going down by three goals to one at the San Siro.
That result leaves France second on 10 points with a goal difference of +3, trailing leaders Italy, who sit level on points but boast a +5 difference.
The advantage still rests with France heading into Sunday's clash with Turkey in Bordeaux. Avoid defeat and they are through to the quarter-finals.
A draw is enough: and defeat could be fatal
A draw with Turkey books France's place in the quarter-finals, whatever happens in the other match between Italy and Belgium.
Even a loss to Turkey might not knock Les Bleus out, provided Belgium fail to beat Italy in the game kicking off at the same time in Brussels.
One scenario, though, could flip the whole thing on its head and send Zidane's side home.
How can France be eliminated?
Lose to Turkey and France stay on 10 points.
Should Belgium beat Italy at the same time, the Red Devils climb to 12 points, top the group and grab a qualification ticket.
That leaves France and Italy scrapping for second place, both locked on 10 points.
This is where the head-to-head record kicks in. Nations League rules state that the first tiebreaker between two teams level on points is the number of points each has taken from their meetings with one another.
Italy hold a clear edge here, having banked four points from their two matches against France with one win and one draw, against a single point for Zidane's side.
Italy would therefore claim second and reach the quarter-finals, while France would slip to third and bow out at the group stage.
France face a single option to avoid the calculations
The equation looks simple for Zidane and his players. A draw against Turkey seals qualification. Defeat could turn into a disaster if it lands alongside a Belgium win over Italy.
The match carries extra weight with the possible return of Kylian Mbappé, who scored the winner in the first-leg meeting with Turkey. Zidane is counting on his captain for the decisive encounter in Bordeaux.
France's elimination scenario:
France lose to Turkey.
Belgium beat Italy.
France take third place on head-to-head results behind Italy.
