Al-Hilal the biggest beneficiary: how do the Clasico and the Derby unite to bring down Al-Nassr?
A anticipated clash in the fifth round of the Roshn league
The fifth round of the Roshn League opens with a bang. The draw has thrown together two heavyweight fixtures at almost the same time. Al-Hilal clash with Al-Shabab in the Riyadh derby, while Al-Ittihad meet Al-Nassr in a Clasico that could prove one of the strongest encounters of the round.
Between those two matches, the shape of the title race could be decided. Al-Hilal and Al-Nassr each sit on 12 points after a perfect start.
This clash of the summit heavyweights is nothing new. The rivalry between Al-Hilal and Al-Nassr has burned strongly since last season, and every match for either side can now shift the shape of the race early.
In this round specifically, Al-Hilal may end up the biggest beneficiary of their rival's fixture. Any slip by Al-Nassr, coupled with a win for "the Boss", could hand Al-Hilal the chance to sit alone at the top.
Al-Ittihad capable of toppling Al-Nassr, with Al-Hilal watching on
Al-Ittihad head into the Clasico against Al-Nassr with a new project, fresh ambitions and the players to make a difference. Play it smart and stay disciplined, and the Dean can rattle the leaders. Top-of-the-table clashes rarely come down to the quality of the names. They turn on the details.
Al-Nassr carry serious attacking power, yet Al-Ittihad have the tools to stop them dictating the tempo. The Dean's knack for exploiting spaces and breaking quickly could prove decisive.
Should Al-Ittihad bring down Al-Nassr, the leaders take the direct hit, and Al-Hilal stand first in line to profit.
Yet the picture isn't complete. Al-Hilal face their own test in the Riyadh derby, and they can't afford to think about the Clasico before settling their business against Al-Shabab.
Riyadh derby: a task that appears easier for Al-Hilal
On paper, Al-Hilal have the kinder task. "The Boss" hold a clear historical edge over Al-Shabab in the recent period, going unbeaten in the last 6 meetings between the two sides with 5 wins and a draw.
Those numbers hand Al-Hilal a psychological advantage heading into the derby. Al-Shabab, meanwhile, are enduring a wretched start. "The Lions" have failed to win any of their first 4 rounds, so they arrive under pressure to find a first victory.
A derby remains a derby, though, and history guarantees nothing. Al-Shabab know that toppling Al-Hilal might be the best way to rescue their season, while "the Boss" know a single slip could squander a golden chance to sit alone at the top.
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A two-legged battle: and the biggest winner could be Al-Hilal
The equation seems clear: Al Nassr need a win to hold on to top spot, Al Ittihad want a big victory to prove their new project can compete with the giants, while Al Hilal have a chance to capitalise on any slip by their direct rival.
Beat Al Shabab, and see Al Ittihad bring down Al Nassr, and the fifth round becomes a pivotal point for Al Hilal. "The Boss" would climb to 15 points and take sole possession of the top of the Roshn League. Al Nassr's tally would halt at 12.
From here comes the idea that "the derby may unite with the Clásico" in Al Hilal's favour, with the result of each match indirectly linked to the other.
An Al Hilal win alone is not enough to make the leap. Nor does an Al Ittihad win alone hand "the Doyen" top spot. Combine the two, though, and you get the biggest change to the shape of the table.
That is why Al Hilal's eyes will be split between the derby pitch and the Clásico pitch. While "the Boss" seek to continue their superiority over Al Shabab, they will keep an ear on Al Ittihad against Al Nassr, because one match in Riyadh could hand them sole possession of the summit, and another in Jeddah could bring down their direct rival.
The fifth round, then, is not merely a collection of strong matches, but a real test of the title-challenge project. Al Hilal want to win their game. Al Ittihad want to bring down Al Nassr. Bring the two results together, and the derby may unite with the Clásico to make a night that is Al Hilal's par excellence.
