Crvena zvezda have won by more than one goal just once in their last eight home European ties
Hapoel Beer-Sheva have lost only two away games in Europe since 2022
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Hapoel Beer-Sheva take a 1-0 lead into the second leg of this Champions League third-round qualifier in Serbia, having held out with 10 men for over half an hour in last week’s victory.
Crvena zvezda failed to score despite recording seven shots on target and that has left them with a hill to climb as they aim to make the League Phase of the competition.
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Team news
Adem Avdic is a long-term absentee for Crvena.
Hapoel are without Matan Baltaxa, who was sent off after being shown two yellow cards in last week’s first-leg.
The stats
Crvena have scored exactly once in six of their last eight home European matches.
The hosts recorded six 1-0 wins in Europe last season.
Since last summer, Hapoel have kept five clean sheets in seven European games.
The visitors lost 2-1 at Iceland’s Vikingur in the last round, but they progressed 3-2 on aggregate.
Hapoel have recorded seven 0-0 draws in Europe since 2022.
Four of the five matches Hapoel have lost in Europe since 2022 were by a one-goal margin
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Prediction
Crvena reached the knockout stage of the Europa League last season, but the Serbian champions are aiming to reach the Champions League proper for the first time since 2024.
The hosts lost in the play-off round of Champions League qualifying last summer, but they are at risk of falling short of that this year after last week’s loss to Hapoel.
Crvena cruised past Larne in the last round with a 9-0 aggregate victory, while Hapoel saw off Iceland’s Vikingur Reykjavik 3-2 in their first Champions League tie since 2018.
Tuesday’s visitors have been regulars in European competition over recent years and they have put together a solid record, losing just five times in Europe since 2022 and suffering only three defeats in 13 away outings during that time.
Of those five defeats, four of those came by a one-goal margin and they head to Belgrade aiming to keep things close. The way they held on to their first-leg lead with 10-men last week suggests they can avoid a heavy defeat in the return fixture.
Crvena won 1-0 on six occasions in Europe last season and they may need extra-time to progress to the next round of Champions League qualifying.
They are also facing a side that has kept five clean sheets in their last seven matches in Europe, so the visitors look good with a two-goal head start.
Score prediction: Crvena zvezda 1-0 Hapoel Beer-Sheva
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