How to Pick a Wimbledon Dark Horse Based on Stats

What Defines a ‘Dark Horse’ at Wimbledon?

With so many players taking to the courts at Wimbledon, how do you go about identifying someone to be a potential dark horse? 

We recommend focusing your attention on unseeded players, lower ranked seeds, and up and coming performers who have got close to finals in other tournaments and Grand Slams. Anything can happen in a game of tennis and at an event of the scale of Wimbledon. 

Key Stats to Look at During Wimbledon

First Serve % - The percentage of first serves a player successfully lands in play.

One of the strongest weapons a player can have in their arsenal at Wimbledon is a strong and powerful first serve. This serve is crucial on grass surfaces, and it is common that players who consistently perform on their serve and win a high percentage of first serve points hold an advantage against an opponent.

Aces Per Match - Average number of aces players hit per match

Extremely valuable on grass due to the quick bounce and lesser margin for returns, a high ace count means players can win points quickly and keep the pressure off. It is also able to force tight sets or tiebreaks. 

Break Points Saved - Amount of break points players defend on their serve

Look at players who handle pressure well and can save break points. This allows them to stay in matches longer and break down opponents. 

Return Games Won - Games that a player wins when not serving

The ability to break a player's serve at Wimbledon is key, so analysing players who perform well in return games can be a sign of a potential upset on the cards. It indicates fast reactions and good playing technique.

Grass vs Other Surfaces

To help identify any potential dark horses during Wimbledon, it is vital to look at player performances on grass court surfaces. Look for those with a high win rate on grass, in particular, in the build up to Wimbledon, such as at Queen’s, Halle, and Eastbourne. 

H2H records against Seeds

Another way to spot an underdog is to explore the head-to-head records between players and a seeded opponent. Look out for any upsets where they have beaten seeds in a tournament, and see how they fare overall when up against some of the top tennis players.

For more information on betting on Tennis, head over to our dedicated page.

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