Wimbledon Finals Betting Trends: What the Last 10 Years Tell Us

Wimbledon 2025 and 2026: A Tournament Increasingly Prone to Shocks

At Wimbledon 2025, records were set left, right, and centre, but not all good ones!

36 seeds were eliminated in the first two rounds of the tournament, with eight of the top 10 eliminated in the first round alone, a new Open Era record.

It is also the first time in the Open Era that two of the top three seeds went out in the first round and that just one of the top five seeded women progressed to the third round.

There were four of the top 10 ranked players out in the first round for just the third time in a Slam over the past 25 years.

The trend continued into 2026. A total of 17 seeds fell in the first round alone, more than a quarter of the combined field, with 25 seeds gone after two rounds, including top-10 casualties Ben Shelton and Mirra Andreeva. That total falls short of the 2025 record, which still stands, but it confirms that early upsets are now a recurring feature of the Championships rather than a one-off.

You can see the current odds for the tournament in our Tennis betting guide.

Factors Affecting Players at Wimbledon

So why have there been so many early exits at Wimbledon in recent years? Below, we have looked at some of the potential factors affecting players.

• Weather Conditions -The weather system of the UK can result in uncertainty of conditions up until the day of a match. Extreme heat or cool, damp conditions can play a part and affect the performance of players as well as the performance of the tennis balls themselves.

• Short Grass Court Season - The grass court season lasts for less than 50 days. This limits the amount of grass court preparation and experience players can get ahead of the Grand Slam. It is a quick turnaround from the clay court season and is one of the surfaces players spend the least amount of time on.

• Busy Tennis Calendar - Discussions around the length and intensity of the tennis season have always been happening, and several top players have referred to 'burnout' as a factor in their early exits from tournaments. The tennis season typically runs for around 11 months. Long-term injury absences, such as those suffered by Carlos Alcaraz and Jack Draper through 2026, have also fuelled the debate around scheduling and player workload.

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Other Grand Slam Early Exits (First Two Rounds)

• Wimbledon 2025 - 36

• French Open 2020 - 35

• Wimbledon 2002 - 33

• French Open 2025 - 33

• US Open 2003 - 31

• Wimbledon 2013 - 31

• US Open 2017 - 31

• Wimbledon 2026 - 25

Wimbledon Champions: Last 10 Years

It is not uncommon for Wimbledon to throw a spanner in the works of the usual players we expect to see heading into the latter stages of a Grand Slam.

Over the last ten years, only a handful of Wimbledon Ladies' Singles champions have come from the top three seeds, with Serena Williams (2015 and 2016) among them. Linda Noskova's win as the ninth seed in 2026 continues that trend, reinforcing that the women's draw at SW19 remains one of the least predictable in tennis.

Once the final is set, our guide to betting on the Wimbledon final covers markets beyond just picking the winner.

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If your tennis summer continues past SW19, our full guide to the Cincinnati Open covers the next big tournament on the calendar.