Aryna Sabalenka is favourite but fallible after a blank slam season
Elena Rybakina can take the crown and world No. 1 ranking off the Belarusian
Coco Gauff is primed and stable in her quest for a second title in New York
As the last major on the calendar, the US Open is often known as the “party slam,” where celebrity cool and socials have an end-of-term feel. But it is deadly serious for the women at the top of the game. The last major of 2026 has the No.1 ranking on the line.
During the first week in the Big Apple, double defending champion Aryna Sabalenka was mainly bothered by the smell from courtside. The top seed hasn’t dropped a set. After becoming only the fifth player to win the Sunshine Double earlier in the campaign, the last couple of months have been ordinary to say the least. However, Sabalenka looked more at home in NYC until the last-16 clash against Taylor Townsend, where her serve again dropped below standard. That's a worry.
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Sabalenka Nerves Will Be Tested Against Wimbledon Champion
Her quarterfinal opponent is Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova, who overcame the in-form Marta Kostyuk in a three-set epic. Noskova had never gone beyond the third round at Flushing Meadows. The sixth seed is not frightened to come back with a vengeance when the match is slipping away, as she proved against Karolina Muchova at SW19. Her record against Sabalenka is 0-2, but the Czech has arrived as a real force in majors. Both women get tense near the finish line, so it could get interesting.
Sabalenka may be favourite for the crown, but her status as world No. 1 is under threat. For the second time in a row, the Belarusian has to snatch the Flushing Meadows crown to save the season in slam terms.
Rybakina Has The Look of a Champion But Zheng is Back with a Bang
That pressure is coming from Elena Rybakina. Rybakina came from 0-3 down in the final set at Melbourne to frustrate Sabalenka’s best chance of a slam in 2026. The Kazakhstani will be guaranteed to be top of the pile if she reaches the semis, but she can get there anyway if Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula don't win the tournament outright.
Rybakina had some injury concerns coming in after pulling out of Cincinnati during her clash with Iga Swiatek, but the way she dismantled Naomi Osaka in the last 16 sent a shiver through the ranks. When the second seed serves like that and powers the groundstrokes with abandon, it's hard to stop. Or see another winner.
Swiatek was just behind the big two in the markets, but her vulnerability in the 2026 majors came to the fore again as she let a 0-5 lead slip against Qinwen Zheng in the last 16. Perhaps bad memories of her crushing defeat against Zheng at the Olympics came back to haunt her.
The Chinese was all but out of the tournament when 0-5 down in the final set against Madison Keys in the third round too. Talk about living on the edge. The Olympic and 2024 Australian Open runner-up could be trouble for the second seed after struggling with injury and dropping out of the top 100. She had to qualify for the main draw and is now reaping the benefits of match toughness.
Gauff Holds the Cards Against Andreeva
Gauff looks at her most convincing in a slam for some time. After winning the Masters 1000 in Cincy and pushing Rybakina to three sets at the National Bank Open semis, the 22-year-old is finally showing stability on serve. That could be crucial when she bumps into bigger hitters. There have been no dropped sets, and the 2023 champion just looks happier. Her match toughness has never been in question. It is the perfect storm with a home crowd behind her,
She would have been in the Wimbledon final if it hadn’t been for an eye-popping miss in that tense tiebreak against Muchova. The women’s 2026 slam circuit has thrown in curveballs with first-time slam winners Mirra Andreeva and Noskova benefiting from the topsy-turvy year. Andreeva, the French Open champion, has never beaten Gauff in five attempts. With a breakthrough year behind her already, the 19-year-old might see it as a free hit.
Pegula Should Cope Against Compatriot Navarro
Pegula hung tough against 2021 runner-up Leylah Fernandez in the third round and is not going to give it away easily to anyone based on her impressive hard court swing at Cincinnati and Washington. If she runs into Sabalenka in the semis, the third seed can play on the champion’s nerves a bit. Time is running out for the 32-year-old to finally land a slam. It’s a tough road when there are so many major winners in the mix. She should get past Emma Navarro to make it to the last four with a 4-0 head-to-head record.
The US Open last eight sees no less than five major winners in the mix, with two other runners-up. It's going to be a fight to the finish.
