We are in the homestretch of the 2025-26 NFL regular season. 28 teams were in action yesterday, giving us a much clearer picture of the 2026 Playoffs, positioning for the NFL Draft, and more. With that in mind, let's review some of the biggest takeaways we have after Sunday's slate of games.
6. Nobody wants to win the NFC South.
On Thursday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fell to the Atlanta Falcons in a fairly surprising 29-28 upset. The Bucs have dropped five of their last six games and have lost to the bottom-feeders of the NFC South in back-to-back weeks.
Following Tampa’s loss, the Carolina Panthers had a chance to take control of first place in the division. All they had to do was beat the 3-10 New Orleans Saints. However, they weren't even able to do that. In a game where quarterback Bryce Young actually did a good job taking care of the football, the Saints defeated the Panthers 20-17 on a game-winning field goal from second-year kicker Charlie Smyth.
The Panthers and Buccaneers are playing hot potato with first place in the NFC South. It feels like each week, when one team is about to take control of the division, they suffer an inexplicable loss to a lesser opponent. The game of hot potato will take a very interesting turn this weekend when the Bucs and Panthers go head-to-head for the first time all season. Whoever wins that game will take control of first place in the NFC South. Then again, that control might be short-lived since these teams play each other again in Week 18. It wouldn’t be surprising if that game is for the division and a spot in the 2026 NFL Playoffs. For now, though, we will get a better idea of who might actually win the NFC South crown on Sunday when the Panthers play host to the Buccaneers.
5. At least two AFC South teams will make the playoffs.
Sunday was a good day for playoff contenders in the AFC South. The Houston Texans won their sixth game in a row to improve to 9-5 on the season. The Jacksonville Jaguars defeated the New York Jets for their fifth consecutive win and a 10-4 record. Even 44-year-old quarterback Philip Rivers put his Indianapolis Colts in a position to beat the Seattle Seahawks yesterday, when he put together a drive that gave Indy the lead with 47 seconds left in the game. However, the defense let the team down by allowing Seattle to connect on a game-winning field goal as time expired.
With the way things are shaking out, it feels like at least two AFC South teams are guaranteed to reach the postseason. Hell, that number could be higher if the Colts can pull off an upset over the final three weeks of the season.
The Jaguars will have a tough test against the Denver Broncos this week, but after that, they face the Colts and the Tennessee Titans. They'll probably beat the Titans at the very least, giving them 11 wins, which should be enough to earn Jacksonville a playoff spot.
This weekend, Houston plays the hapless Las Vegas Raiders, which should be an easy victory for the Texans. If they can beat the Los Angeles Chargers or the Colts in the final two weeks of the season, they'll also finish the campaign with 11 wins, which will earn them a Wild Card berth or maybe even the AFC South crown.
The real question mark is Indy. They have the San Francisco 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans remaining on their schedule. They could do wonders for their playoff chances by beating San Fran this weekend. Even if they lose that game, they'll have head-to-head matchups with the other two teams in their division that are vying for a postseason spot. Should they win one of those games, the Colts might have enough victories to earn them a playoff berth.
4. The Green Bay Packers' Super Bowl LX hopes died on Sunday.
The Packers were humming early on Sunday and had the number-one seed in the AFC on the ropes at home. With a 23-14 lead in the third quarter, it looked like Green Bay was going to blow the doors off the Denver Broncos. Then, their season began to fall apart before our very eyes.
Things took a turn when Jordan Love was picked off by Denver cornerback Patrick Surtain II. Wide receiver Christian Watson suffered what appeared to be a really bad shoulder or chest injury on that play, which took the wind out of Green Bay's sails offensively. There was still hope for the Packers to hold onto the lead, even after they gave up a touchdown. But then, disaster struck. Pro Bowl defensive lineman Micah Parsons went down with a non-contact knee injury that is believed to be a torn ACL. The Packers were never able to recover from that moment, eventually falling to the Broncos 34-26.
According to ESPN's Rob Demovsky, Christian Watson's injury is not expected to be a long-term issue, and there's even a chance he plays this weekend. Though that's good news, it does not make up for the monumental loss of Micah Parsons on the defensive side of the ball. Parsons' presence covered up a lot of the Packers' defensive deficiencies, namely in the secondary. Even with him on the field, Green Bay’s defense ranks 20th in completion percentage allowed and 16th in passer rating. With Parsons unavailable to get after opposing QBs and make them uncomfortable, the Packers' opponents will have no problem picking apart Green Bay's weak secondary.
The offense might be playing well at the moment, and they avoided a disaster with Christian Watson not expected to miss significant time. But this defense without Micah Parsons is not good enough to win a Super Bowl. Heading into this weekend, Green Bay looked like one of the favorites to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LX. After the Parsons injury, the Packers will be lucky to even win their division, let alone a playoff game.
3. The New England Patriots might be pretenders.
On Sunday, the Patriots suffered what can only be described as one of the worst losses in franchise history. In a game where they led 21-0, they were outscored by the Buffalo Bills 35-10 in the eventual 35-31 loss. It was the third-largest blown lead in franchise history and the largest blown lead by the Patriots at home since 1978. On a day when New England should have won its first AFC East divisional crown since the 2019-2020 season, the Patriots did something they never did during the Brady-Belichick era and choked away a massive lead.
The Pats had a chance to silence doubters with a statement win over a good team. After all, the biggest knock on New England is that it had not really faced any world-beaters, with its best wins coming against the Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Buffalo Bills. Instead of shutting the door on doubt, the Patriots opened a can of worms and validated the criticism that they had only beaten bottom-feeders during their ten-game win streak.
The Pats will still probably end up winning the AFC East because they have a one-game lead over the Bills, and they still get to play the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. Now, though, there is a sense that the Patriots are not as good as their record might indicate. The feeling that this team can win the Super Bowl has been replaced by fear that they might be one-and-done in the playoffs, when the competition becomes a lot better. Even if New England wins the AFC East, there will be doubts about what this team is truly capable of.
2. The number-one seed in the NFC will be decided this Thursday.
On Sunday, the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks continued to show their mettle with victories over desperate teams that were trying to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Rams rallied from a 24-14 deficit to beat the Detroit Lions, 41-34. Around the same time, the Seahawks kicked a 56-yard field goal for an eventual 18-16 win over the Indianapolis Colts. At the moment, Seattle and LA are tied for the best winning percentage in the NFC, but the Rams are currently scheduled to be the number-one seed in the conference since they beat the Seahawks head-to-head earlier this season. Therefore, this week's Thursday night matchup between Seattle and LA will probably be the game that decides who gets a first-round bye in the 2026 NFL Playoffs and who will be a Wild Card team.
With games still remaining against the Atlanta Falcons and the Arizona Cardinals, the Rams don't necessarily need to win on Thursday if they want to wind up earning the top spot in the NFC. The same cannot be said for Seattle, which has to play the Panthers and 49ers after this week. Regardless, if the Seahawks win on Thursday, they will improve to 12-3 and have a one-game advantage over the Rams for the number-one seed in the conference. Even if Seattle splits its last two games, it can still be the top-seeded team in the NFC with a win over the Rams because that would give it a 13-4 record, which should be good enough to earn the Seahawks a first-round bye.
1. The Kansas City Chiefs suffered the worst loss of the season.
The only team that lost more than the Green Bay Packers on Sunday was the Kansas City Chiefs. In a must-win game, the Chiefs fell to the Los Angeles Chargers, which meant that they would miss the playoffs for the first time since the 2014-2015 season. As bad as the on-the-field loss was, they suffered an even more catastrophic loss towards the end of the game, when quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL. Not only did KC miss the playoffs, but the team might be doomed for the 2026-27 season as well.
According to the Bass Medical Group, the recovery timeline for a torn ACL, which includes surgery and rehab, is typically between eight to 12 months. Therefore, Patrick Mahomes will probably miss a significant number of games next season. At the very least, he will probably miss the entirety of minicamp, training camp, and the preseason, so he will not be on the same page as the rest of the offense.
After a down year, we can expect the Chiefs will take another step back next season, regardless of Patrick Mahomes' health. The team is projected to be $44 million over the salary cap, so they'll probably have to cut ties with several key contributors from this year. KC will have to do that if it wants to get out of the red! That doesn't include freeing up cap space to sign free agents or draft picks. If they want to make those types of moves, they'll have to release even more players and restructure several big contracts.
The 2026-27 Kansas City Chiefs will probably be without Patrick Mahomes for half the season and will have a completely reorganized roster that features several new individuals trying to fill the shoes left behind by numerous impact players. Based on those two factors alone, it seems pretty clear that the Chiefs are going to struggle next year. On a day when several NFL teams suffered huge losses, nobody lost more than the Chiefs, who will not be competitive again until 2027.
