Thursday Night Football features one of the most important matchups of the season when the 7-5 Detroit Lions play host to the 6-5-1 Dallas Cowboys. Both teams are currently on the outside of the NFC Playoffs, so whoever wins will have a much better shot at reaching the postseason because these are the eighth- and ninth-seeded teams in the NFC.
Not only have the Cowboys turned things around and currently find themselves in the middle of a three-game winning streak, but they have won back-to-back games over the AFC and NFC representatives from Super Bowl LIX.
“I'll say this. We're playing good teams, and we're playing really good, and we're playing good on both sides of the ball, really,” said Cowboys owner Jerry Jones after Dallas’ 31-28 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. “I feel good about where we are as compared to where we were… We're playing teams that are obviously hard to beat, and they don't go easy, as you can see right at the end. But what a thrill to compete at this level.”
Dallas has shown a notable improvement on the defensive side of the ball over their last three games. Since the bye week, they have held opponents to 21.7 points per game, well below their season average of 28.5 points per game.
“I really think it's just consistency, continuity, guys executing well, and then us focusing on improving, getting better, and staying in the process during that time,” said Cowboys defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus on Monday. “The guys have done a really good job in terms of the walkthroughs, talk-throughs, and all those things that we've done with the practice. Obviously, getting the two safeties back is a big part of that. The addition of some obvious talent in there with (DeMarvion) Overshown and Q (Quinnen Williams) and all those guys. But really, it comes down to all 11 of us doing it together. That's the most important thing. And I think the guys have done that.”
This game will be a huge test for the new-look Dallas defense since they'll have to go against a Detroit Lions squad that is third in scoring (29.2 points per game). Matt Eberflus knows that stopping the ground attack will be a top priority for his unit.
“Today's a big day for all of us on third down, in two-minute, and those types of things. The pass downs that we have, but still focusing on the run game because, obviously, they run the ball very well,” Eberflus explained. “They have two really good runners. [The] offensive line does a really good job of creating angles and getting numbers where they want them. So, it's going to be a big challenge for us this week.”
Meanwhile, the Lions' Thanksgiving was not nearly as joyous as the Cowboys' after Detroit fell to the Green Bay Packers 31-24. Very little separated those two teams. At the end of the day, Green Bay won because it executed in high-pressure situations, and Detroit didn't.
“Really, this game came down to fourth down and those critical moments,” explained Lions head coach Dan Campbell during the Week 13 postgame press conference. “We were 0/2, and they were able to capitalize on three of them. Those are the one or two plays, really, that make the difference when you're playing a really good team. So, that's really kind of what it came down to.”
The Lions didn't have time to sit around and lick their wounds. Detroit has spent the last six days making preparations for the Cowboys' new and improved defense.
“They're playing really well since the bye,” said Detroit quarterback Jared Goff on November 30th. “They're playing with a lot of energy. They're playing hard. They're playing fast, flying around. [The] defense is getting better, it seems, every week. And, Coach Eberflus, [I’ve] got a lot of respect for him and his scheme, so we'll have to put in some work this week and come out ready to go.”
Though the Cowboys' defense is good, the offense is the driving force behind Dallas' success. The 'Boys rank near the top of the league in several key statistical categories, including total yards (first), passing yards (first), and scoring (second).
“Dak's just playing at a very high level. He has for a number of years, but this has helped him. He's got weapons. They got a run game,” explained Dan Campbell during a Tuesday interview. “They run G. They run gap. They run outside zone, inside zone. They do it all... These guys are trying to get 30 carries a game if they can. And now, it sets up the play-pass. And Dak is dangerous that way.”
Containing the wide receiver duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens will be a point of emphasis for Detroit. Both guys rank in the top ten in terms of receiving yards per game (Pickens is second and Lamb is sixth). Despite the daunting task of having to cover those two pass catchers, defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard looks at this as a new opportunity for his unit to turn things around, even though the secondary is dealing with multiple injuries.
“They have some of the top personnel in the league, and I told the defense, ‘We're exactly where we want to be.’ Like, that might sound crazy, but in my opinion, we're exactly where we want to be,” Sheppard said on December 1st. “You can say backs against the wall. What I see is a great opportunity with everything. When we started this year, we had goals and aspirations. All those goals and aspirations still lie ahead of us. But now, it's just more of a sense of urgency, which it always should have been. But sometimes, it's human nature. You need a little nudge. You need a little reminder of where you've been instead of where you’re at or where you think you're owed if you're owed something… There's an urgency, and there's a margin for error that's no longer tolerable, and it's as simple as that.”
Prediction for Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions (-3)
Though it feels like Detroit has had Dallas' number recently, it has actually been the other way around. The Lions are just 1-4 in their last five matchups against the Cowboys. Granted, they kicked Dallas' ass last year, but these teams look very different this time around. The Lions are banged up in the secondary and were just picked apart by a Green Bay receiver room that lacks a true number-one wideout. That's incredibly worrisome considering the Cowboys have the best wide receiver duo in the NFL. Dallas has also been much better at defending the run since the bye week, holding opponents to fewer than 70 rushing yards per game. If the Cowboys can get out to an early lead and force the Lions to abandon the rushing attack, then the defense can pin its ears back and focus on stopping Jared Goff, which plays into Dallas' strengths.
Prediction: Cowboys 31 - 30 Lions
How to watch Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions (-3)
Cowboys @ Lions starts at 8:15 p.m. EDT at Ford Field. You can watch it on Amazon Prime Video.
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