Tonight's Thursday Night Football matchup features two teams looking to stay afloat in the AFC Playoff picture when the 7-3 Buffalo Bills hit the road to face the 5-5 Houston Texans. Though Buffalo is four games above .500, they still need this win to keep pace with the division-leading New England Patriots. Meanwhile, the Texans are currently on the outside looking in as the eighth seed in the AFC, so a victory in this game could do wonders for their postseason hopes.
With their backs against the wall, the Bills responded excellently with a 44-32 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After an early interception, quarterback Josh Allen threw for three touchdowns and ran for three more, making him the first player in NFL history with multiple 3+ passing TD and 3+ rushing TD games.
“I think it's cool to see the MVP quarterback rip it, and guys run past defenders and catch deep balls,” said offensive lineman Dion Dawkins while addressing the media after the win. “He didn't look the other way. He just looked forward. It's never going to be perfect. I promise you, if the games were perfect, y'all would be bored.”
More often than not, teams dread having to go out and play a game on a short week of rest. Though these matchups present their own set of unique problems, Bills head coach Sean McDermott said there are some benefits to these types of games.
“We love to compete. You get to play within four days instead of waiting for seven days. Our fans get to watch us [in the] middle of the week. They’ve got something to look forward to,” he said on Monday. “But it's hard on the players. It definitely is. Getting their fresh legs back underneath them and coming off a game. There's certainly challenges on the front end, and there's certainly some kind of rest on the back end for the guys, which is important.”
Playing the Texans in Week 12 presents an unusual challenge because the Bills have been preparing for the possibility of playing either starting quarterback C.J. Stroud or backup Davis Mills, since Stroud has missed the last two games due to a concussion. Even though ESPN's Adam Schefter said that the Texans do not expect C.J. Stroud to start tonight, Buffalo defensive coordinator Bobby Babich will have to have his group ready for both QBs.
“It's obviously a challenge. They're both good quarterbacks,” Babich told reporters on November 17th. “We'll do our due diligence on both of them and just be ready to go for whatever happens.”
The toughest test will come on the offensive side of the ball, since the Bills will be facing a Houston Texans defense that ranks first in yards per game (256.1) and points allowed per game (16.3). Offensive coordinator Joe Brady welcomes the challenge of going against the NFL's best defense.
“I think the biggest thing is it's an opportunity for us,” he explained. “We have to control what we can control. Going in and not beating ourselves, understanding that they're going to make football plays, and we've got to go play the next one. It's going to be a battle out there. They're the best defense in the league for a reason. So, it's going to be a great opportunity for us. It's going to be a great test, and a great opportunity, and I'm excited to see our guys.”
Despite C.J. Stroud's recent absence, the Texans find themselves in the middle of a two-game winning streak. After their remarkable comeback victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston beat the Tennessee Titans on a game-winning field goal, 16-13. Davis Mills, who had 274 passing yards and a touchdown, said that it took a collective effort to pull off the victory.
“I think it was just a great team win,” he said during the Week 11 postgame press conference. “Obviously, was able to make a couple big-time plays. [We had a] huge conversion to keep the drive alive to Nico (Collins) near midfield and really just started pounding the rock to get into good field position at the end of it… It took all three phases to win that game today. It's exciting. It's fun to go out there and get another win.”
When facing the Buffalo Bills, teams must contain Josh Allen. Not only is he the Bills' leading passer, but he is also second on the team in rushing yards (351). That presents an extraordinary challenge for Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans and his defense.
“We understand Josh is one of the most dynamic quarterbacks when it comes to buying time and being able to escape the rush. He's [a] big, physical guy. He can ward off defenders, and he can throw the ball as far as he needs to throw it,” Ryans told reporters on Tuesday. “I think, schematically, they've done a good job of their receivers being tied into when he scrambles, where they're going, so it's not just backyard ball. It’s very coordinated in what they do and where they are. So, defensively - for our guys – just you have to keep rushing, you have to keep covering. However long it takes, you’ve got to keep going.”
One of the more underappreciated aspects of the 2025-26 Bills is their pass defense, which ranks second in yards per game allowed this season (169.7). To find success against that unit, DeMeco Ryans said that his squad will have to play complementary football.
“These guys (Buffalo) have played together for a while. They know their scheme. They execute it very well. They have really good coaches. They have good players. They're all tied in together,” Ryans explained. “You’ve got to go earn it versus these guys. We’ve got to do our job collectively as a team, just playing this game the right way, playing complementary football. Everybody playing together. Special teams making impact plays for us, [the] offense sustaining drives, and [the] defense getting the critical stops when we need to.”
Prediction for Buffalo Bills (-6) @ Houston Texans
Expect this game to be a low-scoring affair. The Texans are unimpressive offensively (21st in points per game), but they can hang with the best teams in the NFL thanks to their defense. It feels like Davis Mills' string of good games will come to an end tonight since the Bills rank sixth in passer rating allowed this season (83.5). On a short week, with two of the better defenses in football, we'll be lucky to see four combined touchdowns in this contest. As is the case with most Texans games, the defense will keep things close, but the offense will come up just a little short when crunch time rolls around. Josh Allen is a former MVP who will find a way to score enough points to win this game.
Prediction: Bills 20 - 16 Texans
How to watch Buffalo Bills (-6) @ Houston Texans
Bills @ Texans starts at 8:15 p.m. EDT at NRG Stadium. You can watch it on Amazon Prime Video.
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