2026 NFL Playoffs: Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots Preview, Predictions, and How to Watch

The last game of the Sunday tripleheader will showcase two of the most promising young quarterbacks in the NFL. Justin Herbert and the seventh-seed Los Angeles Chargers will be traveling across the country to take on the second-seed New England Patriots and Drake Maye.
Following the events of Week 18, the Pats and Chargers learned around the same time that they would be facing each other. However, New England head coach Mike Vrabel didn't sound too interested to learn this information.
“We'll get ready and get rolling and try to do what we do every week, which is prepare and figure out who we have available and what we feel like the keys are going to be and try to practice and be ready to go,” Vrabel said after the Patriots’ 38-10 win over the Miami Dolphins. “It’s all we've done all year, and it's all we'll be able to do this week in the playoffs.”
Because the Chargers are led by quarterback Justin Herbert, fans often think that LA isn't a physical team, but that couldn't be further from the truth. They're fifth in total defense (285.2 yards per game allowed) and 12th in rushing offense (121.6 yards per game).
“I would just tell you that they play great defense. They're very sound. They're good tacklers. They're physical. They get off the field on third down. They're good in the red zone,” Vrabel said on Monday. “They run the football. It's a physical football team. They possess the football. They lead the NFL in time of possession. They have very good quarterback play. They're well-coached. They play with technique and fundamentals. They don't panic one way or the other… A lot of respect for them. Certainly, what they've done in a short amount of time.”
Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels echoed Mike Vrabel's sentiments, adding that the Chargers are as good a defense as New England has faced all season.
“I think they're really a physical group. The front seven is super physical, and I'll just say the front eight because Derwan James is probably as good of a unique defensive piece that we've played all year,” McDaniels told reporters on January 8th. “This is a really tough preparation because the players are really, really good. They play sound football. They don't beat themselves. They don't give up a lot of big plays. They're going to make you execute and drive the ball, and then they're really good in situational football. So, this is as good a unit as we’ve played... So, we're going to need every ounce of our toughness, our details, our techniques, our fundamentals, and our execution to consistently do anything well against this unit because they're really good.”
As good as the defense has been, it's no secret that quarterback Justin Herbert is the heart and soul of the Los Angeles Chargers. Not only has he been an elite passer this season, but he has also done an excellent job of using his legs to make things happen.
“He’s one of those guys where, shoot, you list everything you want in a quarterback, he’s got it. And running and speed is one of them,” explained Patriots defensive lineman Milton Williams. “So we’ve definitely got to be all on the same page when it comes to running games, keeping him in the pocket, and trying to get pressure on him. No quarterback likes pressure. Try to make him force a read or miss a read or something and give our guys on the back-end a chance to make a play.”
With their playoff spot already locked up before the start of Week 18, the Chargers chose to rest Justin Herbert, who has been playing with an injured non-throwing hand since Week 13.
“[It] continues to get better,” Herbert said on Wednesday. “I'd say definitely not taking hits on it last week was probably pretty helpful for it. [It] limited kind of the swelling and just getting back to making sure that you have got full strength being able to hold on to a football.”
The good news is that Herbert said that this is the best the hand has felt since before he injured it. The Chargers will need him to be as close to fully healthy as possible when going against New England's eighth-ranked defense (295.2 yards allowed per game).
“They’re really [in] the most important categories, I mean, they're top five, top 10,” Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh said on Monday. “A 3-4 team that can also play as a 4-3 team. [A] 4-3 team that can go to a five-down line. Hallmarks in their coverages, which they play really well. [They] play the single high, the split safety, all really good, really effective, very downhill, very physical, very good tacklers. Really, really sound and player-driven. I mean, they put players in position to be successful. They do a great job of that. So, [it’s a] long list of things that they do well.”
Perhaps the thing the Patriots do best, though, is throw the ball. With the emergence of second-year quarterback Drake Maye, New England averaged the fourth-most passing yards per game this season (250.5).
“[I’ve seen] improvement, being in a system, being with a coach that can really develop him. I think we saw the talent. You know, we did play him last year where you saw what made him a high pick and his ability, and now, in an offense and a team where they play a lot of times to his strengths,” said Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. “They have a run game that really helps a quarterback out, so they're able to throw play actions and have a really efficient drop-back game on normal downs. He's been really effective in and out of the pocket, scrambling, keeping drives alive, keeping plays alive. He's playing like one of the top quarterbacks in the league, for sure.”
Jesse Minter added that the key to stopping Drake Maye will be limiting his ability to take off and run with the ball. Therefore, LA will have to treat him as a running back when trying to bring him down.
“I mean, we've always talked about certain guys, you’ve got to tackle them like a running back, and so there's things that you might do to a less athletic quarterback where you may try to knock the ball down. Things like that, whereas you’ve got to really tackle this guy as if he's a running back in the open field once he's maybe out of that initial drop-back area," Minter said. "You don't want to certainly let him just run out, especially to his right, where a lot of right-handed quarterbacks are the most dangerous… Now we’ve got to go out there and do it. Now we’ve got to execute the plan. Try to - at times - make him play from the pocket, not let him get out, and then, when he does, tackle him like a running back.”
Prediction for Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots (-3.5)
In all likelihood, this will be the closest game of the weekend since these teams are so similar. They're both defensively strong groups with an excellent head coach and quarterback combination. Justin Herbert throwing for 300+ yards has been a consistent theme in the games the Chargers have played against the better quarterbacks in the NFL. That could be difficult against the Patriots' ninth-ranked pass defense (193.5 yards per game). New England will be prepared for LA's air attack, so the Chargers will want to lean on the ground game to set up the pass. That also will be tough, considering the Pats allow the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game this season (101.7). This game will come down to whoever's defense can more effectively get after the quarterback. That will be the Patriots, since the Chargers are tied for the second-most sacks allowed this season (60). Los Angeles' offensive line injuries will be too much to overcome on the road against a playoff team with a stout defense.
Prediction: Patriots 20 - 16 Chargers
How to watch Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots (-3.5)
Chargers @ Patriots starts at 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday at Gillette Stadium. You can watch it on NBC or stream it via the Peacock app or NFL+.
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