The first game of our Sunday doubleheader will be a mid-afternoon matchup between the fifth-seeded Houston Texans and the second-seeded New England Patriots, with a spot in the AFC Championship Game on the line.

The Texans' defense came to play in the Wild Card Round on their way to a 31-6 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. That level of dominance has become common in Houston, which finished the regular season ranked first in yards per game allowed (277.2) and second in points per game allowed (17.4). Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel argued that this will be the best defense New England has faced during the 2025-26 campaign.

“I mean, they have great talent, great scheme. They play hard, and [we] respect how hard they play,” he said on January 14th. “They're just not only talented, but they have a play-demeanor that I can appreciate… They play to the football. They chase the football, and they get a lot of hats at the football. They create turnovers. They play physical.”

The Texans weren't the only team with a dominant defensive performance in the Wild Card Round. The Patriots held the Los Angeles Chargers to three points last weekend, which is a testament to the culture that Mike Vrabel has already established in New England.

“Mike's been one of the best coaches in this league, and he's kind of put his stamp and imprint on the team,” Houston general manager Nick Caserio said during a Tuesday interview. “Zak Kuhr has done a pretty good job working with Mike on the defensive side of the ball… They do a really good job with their scheme. They make it hard on the offense… So, I mean, this is a formidable defense.”

After an early interception, Patriots quarterback Drake Maye came alive against LA. Not only did he throw for 268 yards and a touchdown, but he also had a game-high 66 rushing yards.

“Yeah, I mean, again we’ve got to take care of the football,” Mike Vrabel said during the postgame press conference. “I thought he came through when we needed him. The tipped pass is something that was unfortunate that turned into an interception. But the throw to Hunter (Henry), I thought, when we needed him, was elite.”

Time and time again this season, Drake Maye has answered the call when the Patriots have needed him to, which is why he's considered an MVP candidate.

“Being a young quarterback, he's made a ton of progress. And, I think it starts just also with Josh McDaniels and how he calls the offense for him,” Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans said on Wednesday. “They have a very aggressive passing attack. They're going to take a lot of shots downfield… And I think the young quarterback has handled it really well. And when it's not there on the deep shots, what he's done this year that sets him apart, he's done a really nice job of escaping the pocket. You saw versus the Chargers, he had a really big run to get them in scoring position. So that's the thing where we have to do a really great job of playing the deep ball very well, keeping the ball in front of us, and we’ve got to do a great job up front this week of really not allowing him to escape, especially up the A- and B- gaps, where he gets out, and he guts a lot of teams.”

Drake Maye isn't the only young quarterback in this game who has accomplished a lot. Texans QB C.J. Stroud already has three playoff wins under his belt in just his third season in the NFL.

“C.J. is a great player. Extremely accurate, has great touch, can layer the ball all over the field,” Patriots defensive playcaller Zak Kuhr said on January 15th. “When he's in a clean pocket, he is deadly. Accurate on time, has one of the better average time to throws in the league. Does a good job of seeing things, what's coming, and knows what read to get to first. And he's athletic. He is a threat to run if you give it to him, and he's good at keeping his eyes downfield, though, and being a passer first. He’s a top-five pick for a reason. He's a great player.”

Outside of C.J. Stroud, several other playmakers played a huge part in Houston's win, like wide receiver Christian Kirk, who caught eight passes for a career-high 144 yards and a touchdown.

“I just think it's a testament to him. I mean, CK's always had a lot of savvy. He's got juice. He understands how to set up routes, and that's why we love the guy,” Texans offensive coordinator Nick Caley said to members of the media on Thursday. “[He] just went out there and executed, made plays, and C.J. did a great job finding him.”

Though Houston and New England emerged victorious last week, they had five combined turnovers in the Wild Card Round. Therefore, whoever does a better job of cleaning up and overcoming those mistakes will likely move on to the AFC Championship Game.

“We had some problems with the snaps, me catching them. Gotta find a way just to catch them and then take care of the ball,” Stroud said earlier this week. “We knew on tape that they did a good job of punching at the ball or trying to get you while you're throwing, get your throwing arm. So, I try to work on that throughout the week, but they made plays. I think these games - the playoff games - from my experience, they're going to make plays, we're going to make plays. It's all about moving forward and trying your best to flush it and keep going.”

Prediction for Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (-3)

Several factors are working against Houston in this matchup. First, the Texans have never won a Divisional Round Playoff game (0-6). Obviously, games from the 2010s are inconsequential when evaluating Houston as a Super Bowl contender in 2026, but this group of Texans players and coaches is 0-2 in their last two Divisional games. Also, Houston struggles in the cold, having lost their last two postseason games played in freezing temperatures. That's noteworthy because the temperature in this matchup will be 24 degrees Fahrenheit when factoring in wind chill. Certain aspects of New England's gameplan have me favoring them over Houston. The Pats are better at defending the run (sixth) than the Pittsburgh Steelers (13th), so Houston won't be able to gash the New England for 164 rushing yards as they did to the Steelers last week. More importantly, the Patriots are WAY better at defending the pass than Pittsburgh (193.5 yards per game vs. 243.9 yards per game), so C.J. Stroud will not be able connect with his wideouts. In a low-scoring affair, the Patriots ride their defense and sixth-ranked rushing attack (128.9 yards per game) to the AFC Championship.

Prediction: Patriots 19 - 17 Texans

How to watch Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (-3)

Texans @ Patriots starts at 3:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday at Gillette Stadium. You can watch it on ESPN or ABC, or stream it via the ESPN app or NFL+.

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