2026 NFL Playoffs: Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Preview, Predictions, and How to Watch

In the first of three playoff games scheduled for Sunday, the AFC's sixth-seeded Buffalo Bills will be going south to face the third-seeded Jacksonville Jaguars.
Right now, a case could be made that nobody is playing better than the Jaguars. Since Week Eight, they're 9-1 and have an average margin of victory of 14.7 points per game. Thanks to that strong finish, Jacksonville claimed its third AFC South Championship in franchise history.
“I think it's this group, specifically - so many times we've talked after Houston - has really dug in and really treated every week like a playoff game,” first-year Jags head coach Liam Coen told reporters on January 5th. “Trevor (Lawrence), I think, said it best yesterday: we were in must-wins to win the division. To be in the situation that we're in, we kind of treated them all that way, and it was 1-0 each week.”
This will be Buffalo's seventh consecutive postseason appearance, and Liam Coen acknowledged that a lot of the Bills' success has come at the hands of quarterback Josh Allen.
“Huge, huge respect for Josh, and really for the whole Buffalo Bills,” Coen said during a Monday interview on The Rich Eisen Show. “He's a man. I mean, he's just a total freak that plays the game. He's a football player that also happens to play quarterback, right? He's extremely talented. Can run it, can throw it, can improvise, can do so many good things. I really respect the way they run the football, the way that they run things there.”
Josh Allen isn't the only talented quarterback in this matchup. Jags QB Trevor Lawrence threw a career-high 29 touchdown passes this season and also posted the best QBR of his career (58.3).
“He's taking care of the football but also playing aggressive, and he's throwing the ball on time and in-rhythm and accurately, but also using his legs as a weapon and being able to extend football plays [and] make plays outside of the pocket, which forces the defense to defend every blade of grass,” Coen said. “There's nothing more frustrating to a defense that you can't get to him when he's in the pocket, then he escapes… He has complete ownership of the offense right now. He's making audibles, checks, cans, alerts. He's doing everything that you want a franchise quarterback to do, and he's doing it at a high level right now.”
One could argue that the Jaguars currently have the best offense in the NFL, averaging 36.4 points per game since the start of December. In fact, Bills head coach Sean McDermott paid Liam Coen a huge compliment by comparing him to the Los Angele Rams' Sean McVay.
“They do a great job keeping you off balance,” McDermott said on Monday. “They’ve got weapons in the backfield. They’ve got weapons on the perimeter of their offense. [They] do a great job with the quarterback and moving the pocket. They run quite a bit of no-huddle. Reminds me of early on when (Jared) Goff was with Sean McVay. That's kind of where [the] coach comes from. So there's a little bit of communication going on between the quarterback and the coach during the no-huddle stuff that reminds me of LA and Sean McVay.”
Another key to Jacksonville's success this season has been a really good turnover differential (+13, third in the NFL). The Bills are going to have to force some turnovers if they want to steal a win on the road against an excellent Jaguars team.
“The more you possess the ball, the more chances you're going to have,” explained Buffalo defensive coordinator Bobby Babich. “The more you don't possess the ball - and I'm talking offensively - the more you don't have it, the less opportunity you're going to have to score and the less opportunity you're going to have to win. And it goes that way for defense. The more we can take it from them and give it to our offense, we're giving ourselves a better chance to win.”
Liam Coen knows that winning will be predicated on stopping Buffalo's top-ranked rushing attack (159.6 yards per game). The good news for Jacksonville is that they have the league's number-one run defense (85.6 yards per game allowed).
“The pillars of our defense are stopping the run and taking the football away, and we've done it at a high level. These guys have bought into it. These guys detail and coach the heck out of run fits, gap integrity, physicality, strain, and also ball disruption,” Coen said. “I really respect the way (the Bills) run the football, the way that they run things there. [It’s] extremely creative. Joe Brady does a great job. Aaron Kromer, their offensive line coach, does a phenomenal job. We're going to have a huge test for us this week when you've got one of the best run offenses coming into town. We've got a good run defense. I mean, that's what you hope for. You hope for those matchups.”
Though the Jags are equipped with the league's best run defense, Buffalo running back James Cook led the NFL in rushing this season with 1,621 yards. Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady said that his unit will be ready to go against Jacksonville's elite defense.
“You don't make it into the playoffs nowadays without being a strong defense that is going to be able to take away something, whether that's the run or the pass,” said Brady on January 5th. “Look, they've played some of the top runners, right? Jonathan Taylor was in that division. They've played the top, and they’re playing at such an elite level right now. That's going to be a huge challenge, huge opportunity for us to go on the road and do that, but I believe it's a challenge that we'll be up for.”
Though they're a Wild Card team, fans and media members have been arguing that this is the Bills' best chance to advance to the Super Bowl since elite quarterbacks like Cincinnati's Joe Burrow, Baltimore's Lamar Jackson, and Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes aren't in the playoffs this year. Though that might add extra pressure to the team, that's something Buffalo is used to.
“I mean, there's pressure every week. I'm not trying to be generic, but there's pressure every week,” said Bobby Babich. “Every game, every week in the National Football League, there's a lot of pressure on a lot of people. Even on your bye, there's a lot of pressure on you. Whether you want to call it pressure, whether you want to call it expectation, no matter what you want to call it, if you want to win and you want winners, well then, that's always going to be the case. So, it just comes with the territory of the expectation… You want to be a sustainable winner? You want to be a consistent winner? Well then, the pressure is always on you… There's expectations here. And expectations are a privilege based off what you've done previously.”
Prediction for Buffalo Bills (-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Normally, the Bills would simply lean on their rushing attack and gash their opponent, but that will not be the case when going against a Jaguars squad that has allowed the fifth-fewest ground yards per carry this season (3.94). Josh Allen is going to have to put on the Superman cape if the Bills want to win, which is exactly what Jacksonville will be expecting. Though Allen is one of the best in the league when it comes to protecting the football, he still had twice as many giveaways this year as he did last season. And as good as James Cook has been, he has fumbled the ball six times this year. Turnovers will be the Bills' downfall against a Jaguars squad that has the second-most takeaways in the NFL this season. On top of that, Buffalo's 28th-ranked run defense (136.2 yards per game) - which is tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed this season (24) - will not be able to stop the Jaguars, who are tied for the fourth-most rushing TDs this year (22).
Prediction: Jaguars 26 - 24 Bills
How to watch Buffalo Bills (-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Bills @ Jaguars starts at 1:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday at EverBank Stadium. You can watch it on CBS or stream it via Paramount+ app or NFL+.
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