The AFC Championship Game will feature familiar foes with the second-seeded New England Patriots taking on the top-seeded Denver Broncos. This will be the sixth-ever postseason meeting between these two squads and the first playoff game between Denver and New England since the 2016 AFC Championship Game.

Although the Broncos defeated the Buffalo Bills in overtime last weekend, 33-30, the mood quickly shifted after it was revealed that Denver's starting quarterback, Bo Nix, had suffered a broken bone in his foot that would require season-ending surgery.

“He's such a strong, faith-based guy. He was sitting in the hallway with his family, and I went over, and we're all talking to him, and he knows that God's got a plan for him,” Broncos head coach Sean Payton told reporters during the postgame press conference. “He said he had one in high school. And then, he said he had one at Auburn… But he's a tough cookie. I said, ‘Listen, I believe you're the second quarterback in year two to take your team to a championship game.’ The first is Mahomes. This team, all year, has lost key players, and we'll rise up for the next challenge, and we'll go from there.”

With Nix out of the lineup, seventh-year quarterback Jarrett Stidham is expected to get the start for Denver. Though Stidham has only started four NFL games, Sean Payton knows he'll be ready for the Patriots.

“So, it started with our evaluation in New Orleans. He was a target for us in the draft. That doesn't really mean anything other than we liked this player coming out,” Payton said to members of the media. “I know how he was coached in New England. I know exactly how he was coached in New England. And then, I know how (Josh) McDaniels felt about him when he brought him from New England to Vegas. And then, I know reports on how he played, and then we saw him play real time. But ultimately… it's our three years here and our three years watching him day in and day out that you don't have access to. So, he will be ready to go and ready for the moment.”

Unsurprisingly, Stidham has the full support of the Broncos' organization. Pro Bowl wide receiver Courtland Sutton, who has spent the last three seasons with Stidham, knows what he's capable of.

“I know Jarrett very, very well. Been able to spend a lot of time with him in terms of OTAs, training camps, preseason, getting some reps with him throughout the week, whatever it may be. And so, I have no doubt in my mind that Jarrett’s going to be ready to go play,” Sutton said on Wednesday. “If there's a guy that prepares as well as Bo, it's him. He goes in. He knows the entire playbook. He knows everything that needs to be done for us to go out there and have success.”

The Broncos aren't the only team that's familiar with Jarrett Stidham. He spent the first two years of his career in New England and even joined Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels in Vegas when he served as the head coach of the Raiders.

“[He’s] smart, accurate, [a] great human being,” McDaniels said of Stidham on January 22nd. “[He] worked hard, great teammate. [He] just hadn't had an opportunity, based on the situations and those kinds of things. I just enjoyed working with him. Enjoyed my time with him. [I’m] sure he'll be ready to go this week, for sure.”

As important as Jarrett Stidham and Denver's offense will be in this matchup, the defense needs to be lights out. New England has averaged 22 points per game in the playoffs despite playing against the league's second- and ninth-ranked scoring defenses.

“It's a really good offense, and the quarterback is well-trained,” Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph told reporters on Thursday. “I mean, he's playing at a high level for a young guy. I mean, his footwork, his reads are quick. He can make every single throw… So, it's him, but he's being trained well. Josh has been around a long time, with some really good quarterbacks, so it’s no different now. I mean, it's a really efficient offense that's hard to stop. So it'll be a challenge.”

Unlike the Broncos, the Patriots came away from their Divisional Round matchup relatively unscathed. They rode a dominant defensive performance to a 28-16 win after recording three sacks, four interceptions, and a fumble.

“Well, I'm always excited for our organization, excited for the players. I am appreciative of their work [and] their efforts,” New England head coach Mike Vrabel said after the win. “Everybody's stepping up. We're using everybody. Everybody's making plays. Everybody's helping us win… It wasn't pretty. Defense kept us in there, and then - when we needed it - our offense was able to come through late in the game there in the second half with a touchdown [to] give us a two-score lead… They're playing well together. I feel like they're complementing each other, and our turnovers are created by more than one guy… And that's what it's going to take in the playoffs, is you’ve got to take care of the ball and turn it over.”

As Mike Vrabel explained, taking care of the football will be crucial, especially for New England quarterback Drake Maye. Despite his four passing touchdowns in the Patriots' two wins, he has thrown two picks and fumbled the ball six times.

“I think just work on it in practice,” Maye said on Wednesday. “Be mindful back there, and just know that my job is to protect the football, and that's every game. I think one of the biggest things with the guys up front is it's my job to have a timer in my head, and those guys’ve done a great job all year. I haven't lost trust in those guys up front, and I know that we faced some pretty good edge rushers in the past couple weeks, and I know we’ve got another good set of edge rushers coming up this week. So, just know, have a feel for it, and just protect the football because that's my job.”

This will be the Pats' first road game since December 28th, a 42-10 win over the New York Jets. Fortunately for New England fans, their team is undefeated on the road this season.

“We played a lot of different environments, and you’ve got to take care of the football,” Vrabel told reporters on January 21st. “You're going to have to try to find a way to win in critical situations. At the end of the half, at the end of the game… I just think back to - defensively - getting stops in Miami. We made a critical kick. [In] Tampa Bay, we executed at the end of the half and certain situations. Five-minute in New Orleans. So, I think each game kind of has its own story, but you better take care of the football, especially in Denver.”

One interesting note is that the Patriots have never won a playoff game in Denver. New England is 0-4 at Mile High and knows that this atmosphere will be different than the others the team has played in.

“I think the loudness of the stadium for this week will be different than what we've kind of heard just because of the AFC Championship at a road opponent that has had a history of winning Super Bowls and playing in playoff games and has a great team,” Maye said. “The magnitude of the noise will be, probably, something we haven't seen this year yet.”

Prediction for New England Patriots (-4.5) @ Denver Broncos

A lot of the conversation surrounding this game has to do with Jarrett Stidham and the cupcake schedule that the Patriots have faced. However, one thing that has gone overlooked is New England's defense. The Pats have the second-best scoring defense in the playoffs this year, allowing just 9.5 points per game. On top of that, they’ve given up the second fewest total yards per game (224). With Bo Nix unavailable, Denver will want to rely on its ground game to get things going. There are two problems with that gameplan. First, Denver has the second-worst rushing attack this postseason (70 yards per game). Second, New England has been the best run-defending team in the playoffs (67.5 yards per game allowed). This is going to come down to Jarrett Stidham making enough plays to help Denver win the game. Regardless of what the Patriots and Broncos say, Jarrett Stidham is not going to play well enough to beat the Patriots and advance to the Super Bowl. New England has the most takeaways in the playoffs (six) and is tied with the Texans for the most sacks in the postseason (nine). The Pats will make life miserable for Stidham in his fifth career start as New England advances to its 12th Super Bowl in franchise history.

Prediction: Patriots 23 - 13 Broncos

How to watch New England Patriots (-4.5) @ Denver Broncos

Patriots @ Broncos starts at 3:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday at Empower Field at Mile High. You can watch it on CBS or stream it via the Paramount+ app or NFL+.

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