Week 11 is in the books, and fans have already started to gear up for the Thursday night matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Houston Texans. Before we focus on that game, we have to run down the list of the hottest takes that came from last week and determine if they're a proper reaction or an overreaction.
The New England Patriots or the Denver Broncos will be the AFC Champions.
Proper reaction
The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots currently sit atop the AFC with 9-2 records. The Broncos find themselves in first place because they have a 6-2 record against teams in the conference, while the Pats are slated to be the number-two seed with a 5-2 record against AFC opponents. Both squads are riding eight-game win streaks. More importantly, they have signature wins over long-time divisional leaders. The Patriots have already beaten the Buffalo Bills on the road, while the Broncos defeated the Kansas City Chiefs at home last weekend, 22-19.
Let's start by discussing the "weaker" of these two teams, the New England Patriots, who have answered every test that has been thrown at them after that Week Three stinker against the Pittsburgh Steelers. During their eight-game winning streak, they've beaten the Bills and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and have a perfect 5-0 record on the road. They're the only team without a road loss this season, meaning they should be able to take care of business in the postseason regardless of where their games are being played. We also have to give our flowers to quarterback Drake Maye, who is playing like an MVP candidate and leads the league in passing yards. With a good head coach in Mike Vrabel and a top-flight QB, the Patriots have everything you would want in an AFC Champion.
Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos have been just as good during their winning streak, if not better. They have signature victories over the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs. On top of that, they have won games in many different ways. From blowouts to comeback victories and everything in between, the Broncos just keep winning. They also have a championship-caliber defense that ranks in the top five in points allowed per game (third), yards allowed per game (third), passing yards allowed per game (fifth), rushing yards allowed per game (fourth), and sacks (first). Couple that with a Super Bowl-winning head coach, and the Broncos look like a legitimate threat to win the AFC.
Outside of the Indianapolis Colts, no team in the American Football Conference has looked as impressive this season as either Denver or New England. If it's a three-team race between the Colts, Broncos, and Patriots to win the AFC, there's a 66% chance that either New England or Denver makes the Super Bowl. As the son of a mathematician, I like those odds.
The Chicago Bears will win the NFC North.
Overreaction
The Chicago Bears are 7-3 and stand alone atop the NFC North. After starting the season 0-2, they're 7-1 in their last eight games and just got revenge on the Minnesota Vikings for that embarrassing Week One loss they suffered at home. Simultaneously, the Green Bay Packers have been struggling to stay afloat against inferior opponents, and the Detroit Lions would miss the playoffs if the regular season ended today! Despite all of these factors, the Bears are paper tigers and still have to have a lot of things go right if they want to win the NFC North.
During this eight-game stretch, Chicago has not beaten a single team with a winning record. In fact, they lost to the only team they have faced this season that has a winning record. And calling that Week Two game against the Lions a loss is being polite. In reality, it was a 52-21 massacre! It's also noteworthy that the Chicago Bears have a -6 point differential. They're the only team in the NFL that has allowed more points than they have scored that is currently in a playoff position. Lastly, the Packers and Lions are right on Chicago's tail. The Bears only have a half-game lead over both Green Bay and Detroit. Not only do they have to play the Lions again and the Packers twice, but they're also scheduled to go against the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers. It would be genuinely shocking if they won all of those games.
The Bears are a good team, and they keep finding ways to win, which is all you can ask for from a group that went 5-12 last season. But to assume they're going to win the NFC North because they lead the division after 11 weeks is foolish. They strike me more as a wild card team and not a division winner.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in trouble.
Proper reaction
On Sunday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers suffered a terrible loss to the Buffalo Bills, 44-32. Following that defeat, the Bucs find themselves in the middle of a two-game losing streak. They're also 1-3 in their last four matchups, with their only win coming against the lowly New Orleans Saints. What once looked like the best team in the NFL would only be the fourth seed in the NFC if the regular season ended today. Needless to say, Tampa currently finds itself in murky waters.
As things currently stand, the Bucs only have a half-game lead over the Carolina Panthers for first place in the NFC South. All things considered, there's a realistic chance that Carolina might overtake Tampa Bay for the divisional lead after Week 12. The Buccaneers are going on the road to face the best team in the NFC - the Los Angeles Rams - in a primetime game. It seems unlikely, but if the Panthers can somehow pull off a road win over the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football, then they'll be in first place in the NFC South. Even if they lose that game, Carolina still has two head-to-head matchups against the Buccaneers, which will likely play a huge role in who ends up winning the division. It's too early to say that the Bucs are f*cked, but they have gotten themselves into hot water late in the season. It is reasonable for Tampa Bay fans to be worried right now.
The Dallas Cowboys fixed their defense.
Overreaction
The Dallas Cowboys' defense had its best performance of the season on Monday Night Football. They held the Las Vegas Raiders to 16 points, the fewest points Dallas has allowed in a game this season. Vegas only had 23 rushing yards, which was far and away the fewest yards Dallas has given up on the ground during the 2025-26 campaign. The 238 passing yards the Cowboys gave up was below the 249.9 yards they allow on average. They even forced a turnover, just their eighth of the season! Despite this impressive performance, there are still a lot of issues with the Cowboys' defense.
Dallas still has struggles to defend the pass. They have allowed 23 passing touchdowns this season, which is the second-most in the NFL after only the Cincinnati Bengals (25). Also, we don't actually know how good the run defense is because Las Vegas had to abandon the rushing attack for most of the second half of that game. We also have to take into consideration that this performance came against the Raiders, who are arguably the worst team in football. They only average 15.5 points per game, yet they somehow managed to beat that benchmark against the "new and improved" Cowboys defense. Dallas did what it was expected to do against the Raiders, but to say that the defense is fixed would be a bold and likely inaccurate assumption after just one game against one of the worst teams in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Chargers will miss the playoffs.
Proper reaction
There's no sugar-coating it: that 35-6 loss the Bolts suffered at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars was absolutely devastating. They didn't do one thing well. The offense was a disaster. The defense couldn't stop anything. Even the kick return coverage was bad. Quarterback Justin Herbert had a career-low 81 passing yards. Jacksonville ran all over LA's defense for 192 rushing yards, the most yards allowed on the ground by the Chargers this season. Los Angeles was also held to a season-low 42 rushing yards in the game. They might have limited Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence to 153 passing yards, but that's only because Jacksonville was finding so much success on the ground.
This was a huge missed opportunity for the Chargers. Instead of being 8-3, they're now 7-4 and are currently positioned to be the sixth seed in the AFC Playoff picture if the regular season ended today. It seems highly unlikely that LA catches the Denver Broncos in the race for the AFC West divisional crown, so they'll have to earn a Wild Card spot if they want to make the playoffs. The Jacksonville Jaguars already won the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chargers, which could end up pushing them down into the seventh seed. If the Texans can continue to win games, then the Week 17 matchup between Houston and LA might determine who makes the postseason. It's fair to worry that the Chargers will miss the 2026 NFL Playoffs.
The Houston Texans are better with Davis Mills at quarterback.
Overreaction
Ever since Texans starting quarterback C.J. Stroud suffered a concussion against the Denver Broncos, Davis Mills has been the starter in Houston. Though the sample size is small, he averages 283 passing yards per game in two starts. He has also managed to score four touchdowns while throwing just one pick. More importantly, Houston is 2-0 in its last two games. Obviously, after this recent performance, people are beginning to ask if the Texans are better with Davis Mills as the starting quarterback. That is a ridiculous notion.
C.J. Stroud is the Houston Texans' franchise quarterback. He was taken with the number-two overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and has lived up to the hype that comes with that draft spot. He is better than Davis Mills in almost every measurable way besides neck length. Stroud has a higher career completion percentage, more touchdowns, fewer interceptions, averages more yards per game, and has a higher career passer rating than Davis Mills. And - as much as I hate using records to justify a quarterback's effectiveness - C.J. Stroud is 22-18 with two playoff wins, while Mills is 7-19-1. Davis Mills is not a better quarterback than C.J. Stroud. He just lucked out and got to play a streaky Jacksonville Jaguars squad and the Tennessee Titans. In all likelihood, he'll come crashing back down to Earth on Thursday Night Football.
