The first round of the NBA Playoffs is in the books, and we are now left with eight teams vying for the Larry O'Brien Trophy. In the Eastern Conference, the Knicks, 76ers, Pistons, and Cavaliers remain. Meanwhile, the Spurs, Timberwolves, Lakers, and Thunder are the final four squads representing the Western Conference. Let's dive take a look at these matchups and see who will be moving on to the Conference Finals.
East
#1 Detroit Pistons vs. #4 Cleveland Cavaliers
Both Cleveland and Detroit were pushed to the limit in the first round of the postseason. The East’s top-seeded Pistons clawed their way back from a 3-1 deficit to avoid a shocking upset and beat the Orlando Magic in Game Seven, 116-94. The Cavaliers also needed seven games to take care of their first-round matchup, defeating the Toronto Raptors, 114-102.
Offensive struggles were a big reason why the Magic had the Pistons on the ropes. In its three losses to Orlando, Detroit only averaged 98 points per game. A common theme in those matchups was a lack of support for star guard Cade Cunningham. While he averaged 30.3 points per game in those contests, the Pistons' second-best scorer was held to just 20 points per game. Normally, that would be good enough for a victory, but when your bench averages fewer than 20 points per game, you need your second-best scorer to put up more points.
The issue for Detroit is that the Cavaliers are a much better offensive team than the Magic. This was the case during the regular season and remains true in the playoffs. Cleveland has the seventh-best offensive rating in the NBA this season (118.8). That should be worrisome for the Pistons, considering they were just in a dog-fight with an Orlando squad that ranked 21st in the league in that category (114).
Three-point shooting and reliable offense are the two factors favoring the Cavaliers. Detroit struggled against a Magic team that ranked 27th in three-point percentage (34.2%). They'll likely have even more trouble with a Cleveland group that is 16th in that category (35.8%) and ninth in three-pointers made per game (14.2). Also, the Cavs have reliable second and third scoring options, with three guys averaging at least 18 points per game. The same cannot be said for the Pistons, who only have two players averaging at least 18 points per game. Cleveland's bigs will give Detroit problems, while its guards light it up from beyond the arc.
Cavaliers win the series 4-2
#3 New York Knicks vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers
The Knicks and 76ers took similar routes to get to the next round of the NBA Playoffs. After going down 2-1 to the Hawks, New York rattled off three straight wins, including a historic 140-89 victory over Atlanta on Thursday to close out the series in six games. On the other side, the 76ers rallied from a 3-1 deficit to upset the Boston Celtics in Game Seven, 109-100. Now, these Atlantic Division foes renew their longtime rivalry for a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals.
New York and Philly came away from the regular-season series tied two games apiece. The 76ers took the first two matchups, beating the Knickerbockers 116-107 on December 19th and 130-119 on January 3rd. However, New York won the two most recent games, 112-109 and 138-89. It feels like the third game in that matchup will be indicative of how this series plays out.
After a valiant effort against the Celtics, Joel Embiid has less than 48 hours to get himself right before the Sixers and Knicks tip off in Madison Square Garden. He was clearly hurting in the late stages of Game Seven, and those injuries will likely carry over into tonight. Unlike Boston, New York is not going to just jack up three-pointer after three-pointer. The Knicks will use big men Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby to attack the rim since Embiid will have a limited range of movement due to his injuries.
This matchup will come down to whichever team gets more scoring from its frontcourt. Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, and Mikal Bridges will bring it every night. Meanwhile, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe should be able to take advantage of a Knicks backcourt that has struggled against good guards. Based on how injured Joel Embiid looked on Saturday, it's hard not to lean towards New York in this one. Embiid will not have the speed and range of motion necessary to chase Karl-Anthony Towns all over the court for 30+ minutes a night. That’s concerning since Towns can hurt you in the paint and from beyond the arc. In a tight matchup, the Knickerbockers have the edge because their best players are healthier at the moment.
Knicks win the series 4-3
West
#1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #4 Los Angeles Lakers
The Thunder were the best team in the NBA all season long, and they proved it once again in the first round of the playoffs. They made quick work of the Phoenix Suns, taking them down in just four games. By the time OKC takes the court, they will have been off for eight days. However, the Lakers come into this series with only four days of rest after eliminating the Houston Rockets in six games.
We still don't know when (or if) Luka Dončić will play against the Thunder. ESPN's Shams Charania reported yesterday that Dončić will miss the beginning of this series, as he is listed week-to-week with a hamstring injury. Even if he does make his 2026 playoff debut against Oklahoma City, it has been well over a month since he last saw in-game action. There will not be an easing-in process for the league's scoring champ (33.5 points per game). It'll be a baptism by fire against the best defensive team in the NBA (107.9 defensive rating during the regular season and the playoffs).
Regardless of Dončić's availability, it didn't seem to matter if he was on the court when the Lakers faced the Thunder. OKC swept Los Angeles in the regular season 4-0. Hell, the Thunder's average margin of victory against the Lakers was an astonishing 29.3 points per game! That won't be the case this time around, but it's a good indication of how this thing will play out.
The Lakers currently have the second-best scoring defense amongst playoff teams (98.7 points per game allowed). Still, we have to take that with a grain of salt because Los Angeles faced a Houston group missing its best offensive player for most of the series. The Rockets only averaged 107.3 points per game this season when Kevin Durant didn't play, which is the second-worst mark in the NBA ahead of only the Brooklyn Nets. Against an Oklahoma City Thunder squad that ranks fourth in scoring (119.2 points per game), the Lakers are bound to struggle, even if Luka Dončić plays.
Thunder win the series 4-1
#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #6 Minnesota Timberwolves
Despite injuries to their best players, the T-wolves and Spurs played very well in the first round of the 2026 postseason. San Antonio took care of the Portland Trail Blazers 4-1 and basically only lost a game because superstar center Victor Wembanyama was in the NBA's concussion protocol. And though Minnesota went into Game Six against the Denver Nuggets without Anthony Edwards, the Timberwolves handled the Nuggets, 110-98.
Anthony Edwards' availability will have a huge impact on how this plays out. Shams Charania said Ant will probably miss the first two games of this series. However, sources told him that they're "hopeful" Edwards plays in this series. That would give Minnesota a tremendous boost since he averaged a whopping 36.7 points per game in three matchups against the Spurs during the regular season.
The inside battle between defensive juggernaut Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama will be important. Wemby averages 22.6 points and 9.4 rebounds per game in his career against Gobert, so he should still be effective in this series. San Antonio's guard play will need to be really good, in that case. After Wembanyama, the Spurs' top-four scorers are all guards. Against an undermanned Minnesota backcourt, those guys will need to take their game to another level if the Spurs want to advance to the Western Conference Finals.
This series will be decided by Anthony Edwards and how good he looks coming off a knee hyperextension. If the Timberwolves can steal one of the first two games in this series without Edwards, then they’ll be in a good position to win this series. Minnesota's experience and defensive capabilities in the frontcourt should help neutralize Victor Wembanyama. From there, the T-wolves need their guards to outplay San Antonio's incredibly young backcourt, which shouldn't be too difficult if Ant can return by Game Three.
Timberwolves win the series 4-2
