Tonight, the 2026 Major League Baseball season kicks off with the San Francisco Giants playing host to the New York Yankees at 8:05 p.m. EDT. After that, we will see 2,429 combined regular-season games played from March 26th through September 27th.
There is only one thing people will be asking this year: Does anybody have what it takes to knock off the Los Angeles Dodgers, or are they destined to win their third straight World Series? Let's take a look at how the regular season will shake out, who will make the playoffs, and who will eventually hoist the Commissioner's Trophy.
American League
AL East: New York Yankees
Injuries really hurt the Yankees the season after the team reached the 2024 World Series. Number-one pitcher Gerrit Cole missed the entire year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Designated Hitter Giancarlo Stanton also played fewer than half the team's regular-season games (77). Even perennial MVP candidate Aaron Judge missed time due to injury. Despite all of these things, the Yanks still managed to finish the season with the same number of wins as the Toronto Blue Jays, who had the best record in the American League (94-68). With their best pitcher back in the rotation and Max Fried not forced to be the team's ace, New York should be able to win the AL East, since their team ERA should be better than 3.91 (14th in the MLB). As long as they continue to mash home runs (274 last season, 1st in the MLB), the Yankees will be a force in the American League.
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers had one job this off-season: do not let pitcher Tarik Skubal out of the building. By simply not trading away the two-time Cy Young award winner, Detroit accomplished its goal and showed the rest of the AL that it intends to compete for a World Series this season. If they had just done that, it would've been enough for them to win the AL Central. However, they made a huge swing by signing pitcher Framber Valdez to a three-year, $115 million contract. He will be a welcome addition to the Tigers' rotation since he was 24th in the league in ERA (3.66) and tied for seventh in baseball in quality starts (20). He’ll help Detroit improve its ERA from 16th in the league last season (3.95). By signing Valdez and retaining All-Star second baseman Gleyber Torres, the Tigers are positioned to not just make the playoffs but win the AL Central for the first time in 12 years.
AL West: Seattle Mariners
I don't love that they parted ways with an Opening Day starter (DH Jorge Polanco) AND an All-Star third baseman (Eugenio Suárez), but the Mariners are still the team to beat in the AL West. Seattle accomplished its two most pressing goals this off-season: add a lead-off hitter and re-sign Josh Naylor. They didn't have to break the bank to bring back Naylor, signing him to a five-year deal that has an average annual value of $18.5 million. Also, the acquisition of Brendan Donovan gives the Mariners a reliable batter at the top of the lineup who finished the season tied for 32nd in the league in on-base percentage (.353) and tied for 19th in batting average (.287). If they can navigate the losses of Suárez and Polanco, which I expect they will, then this team should represent the AL West in the 2026 MLB Playoffs.
Wild Cards:
1. Baltimore Orioles
If we want to talk about teams decimated by injuries last year, then we have to discuss the Orioles, who had 29 players spend some time on the injured list during the 2025 season. Hell, seven of the team's nine players in the Opening Day lineup failed to appear in 100 regular-season games last year. They will not have the same level of bad injury luck this season. The Orioles also have a fantastic core with Jackson Holliday, Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Tyler O'Neill, and now Pete Alonso. Once Holliday is cleared to return to the field, this team will be a tough out for anybody in the MLB. Baltimore must find a way to improve its pitching if they want to make any noise in the playoffs because a 4.60 ERA (26th in the MLB) won't cut it in October.
2. Toronto Blue Jays
We can be honest and admit that All-Star shortstop Bo Bichette signing with the New York Mets is a huge loss for this team. Simultaneously, we can say that the addition of an ace pitcher like Dylan Cease will help fans get over Bichette's departure. The Blue Jays had a pitching problem in the postseason, not a hitting issue (first amongst playoff teams in batting average, .285). So while Toronto might have lost its fourth-most consistent batter (.348 batting average in the postseason), they also got a guy in Cease who didn't give up a single run in his only postseason start. On top of that, the signing of Kazuma Okamoto could completely make up for Bichette's loss. Okamoto is a power hitter who dazzled fans and MLB scouts with the Yomiuri Giants in Japan. It'll be tough for him to put up the same numbers in the MLB that he did in Japan, but if he can play close to that level, Okamoto will neutralize Bichette's absence for the most part.
3. Boston Red Sox
The only real loss they suffered this off-season came when they parted ways with Alex Bregman, but that's why the Red Sox traded for third baseman Caleb Durbin. Not only is he five years younger than Bregman, but his WAR (wins over replacement) rating was only 0.7 points lower than Bregman's last year. Considering Durbin is on a rookie deal, and Bregman will cost up to $35 million annually over the next five years, it was an easy decision for Boston to allow Bregman to leave in free agency. The Red Sox also added two starting pitchers in Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray, as well as a starting first baseman (Willson Contreras). With two new pitchers in the rotation and Garrett Crochet establishing himself as this team's ace, Boston will be a playoff team since they'll once again be near the top of the MLB in team ERA (3.70 last year, tied for fourth).
National League
NL East: New York Mets
The Mets had probably the busiest off-season of any team in the Majors. They moved on from Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, and Jeff McNeil, but added Freddy Peralta, Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco, Marcus Semien, and Devin Williams. After everything they've done, it's reasonable to say that the New York will be better than last season, when they came in woefully under expectations and missed the playoffs. The moves they made are somewhat risky, but they should end up paying dividends. The Mets simply need to avoid an epic collapse. After all, they had the best record in baseball through June 12th last season (45-24). If they can get off to another hot start like that, then they'll have no problem winning the NL East. It helps that New York added three relief pitchers after they finished the season with a save percentage of 59%, which was 4% lower than the league average last year.
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
There's no sugar coating it: the loss of Kyle Tucker to the Los Angeles Dodgers was the most shocking move of the off-season. It's an incredible loss since he was tied for third on the team in WAR last year (4.6). Getting a guy like Alex Bregman will help mitigate some of the sting of Tucker’s departure. The Cubs are basically going all in this season, with eight players scheduled to become free agents next year, so they'll probably take a big swing at the trade deadline. The good news is that the team in direct competition with them for the divisional crown (the Brewers) got weaker. after losing their four-time All-Star pitcher. The Reds might have added Eugenio Suarez, but he isn't worth nine wins, which is how far back Cincy finished from the Chicago last year. So long as the Brewers don't break off 14 wins in a row at any point, this division will belong to the Cubbies.
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
How do you follow up a season that ends in a second-straight World Series championship? You add the best closing pitcher in baseball (Edwin Diaz) and an All-Star outfielder (Kyle Tucker). Even after the retirement of Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers are still equipped with the best starting rotation in the Majors (Yamamoto, Snell, Ohtani, Glasnow, and Sheehan). On top of that, they still have the best starting lineup in Major League Baseball with three All-Star starters. There truly is not much to say about this team other than they're good and the best squad in baseball. It would be genuinely shocking if the Dodgers didn't win their division.
Wild Cards
1. Philadelphia Phillies
There's no doubt that the Phillies have one of the most consistent rosters in Major League Baseball. They've made the playoffs each of the last four years and have finished at least six games above .500 every season during that stretch. They accomplished their two biggest tasks this off-season: re-signing both Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto. Considering this core of players has not yet won a World Series for Philly, it feels like this is the last dance for this iteration of the team. They’re going to be extra motivated to make the playoffs, knowing the team might be broken up next off-season. It'll be more difficult without Harrison Bader, Nick Castellanos, and Ranger Suarez. However, the emergence of Cristopher Sanchez gives this team another elite starting pitcher to pair with Zack Wheeler. Those two guys will guide the Phillies back to the postseason for one last hurrah.
2. Cincinnati Reds
Adding a highly coveted free agent like Eugenio Suarez should fix their issues at the designated hitter spot. They only lost one starting pitcher from last season, while adding three reliable arms to their bullpen. That should help them improve their team ERA, which was tied for the 11th-best mark in the Majors last year (3.86). On top of that, two-time All-Star Elly De La Cruz played most of last season with an injury, so he'll likely see his WAR return to the 5.2 level we saw in 2024. Also, Sal Stewart was good in limited action, with two hits and four RBIs in two postseason games. There are talented players sprinkled throughout Cincinnati's roster. They should be a playoff team since the Brewers will take a step back, and the Reds get to beat up on the Pirates and Cardinals.
3. Atlanta Braves
The Braves will have to navigate the season without former All-Star Jurickson Profar. However, they will likely have Ronald Acuña Jr. for most of the campaign after he only played in 144 games over the last two seasons. He will return to MVP form, and that will be a tremendous boost for Atlanta. The last time Acuña was healthy, he had an 8.4 WAR, which is near the top of the league. They only lost three key players from last year's disappointing squad, but brought in an excellent closer in Robert Suarez. They also added depth to their bench, which will allow them to play better in the dog days of summer. Once the Braves are fully healthy, they will be among the best teams in baseball.
World Series
Los Angeles Dodgers over New York Yankees, 4-2.
The Yanks have arguably the best one-two pitching combination in baseball with Max Fried and Gerrit Cole. After the emergence of Cam Schlittler last postseason, New York has the starting pitching necessary to make a deep playoff push. Even if Aaron Judge's bat goes cold in the playoffs, the Yankees’ pitching will be good enough to win them some games. They just need Giancarlo Stanton to be his usual self in the playoffs, and that will be enough to get the Yanks to the Fall Classic.
The Dodgers didn't have many issues last year. If LA had any problems, they clearly addressed them this off-season. They were 18th in save percentage last season (63%), so they added the best closer in baseball. LA's starting left fielder had a WAR of -0.7, so they signed Kyle Tucker, who finished last season with a 4.6 WAR and a .259 batting average in the playoffs. We already said this, but it bears repeating: they have the best batting lineup and pitching staff in baseball.
The Yankees lack the postseason batting efficiency needed to dethrone the Dodgers. However, Los Angeles has a lineup that will give even the best pitchers fits. Somebody in the Dodgers' lineup will get hot against Cole and Fried. Even if that doesn't happen, the Dodgers will crush the Yanks' bullpen. That's why they'll win their third consecutive World Series.
