Festival Trials Day is one of the most pivotal meetings on the National Hunt Racing calendar. With all eight contests on the card an official trial for a race at the Cheltenham Festival itself, there are key indicators galore on what is the final raceday at Prestbury Park before the spring showpiece.
296 horses have gone on to run at the Cheltenham Festival after Trials Day over the last decade, but wins aren’t as common as you might think. Just nine per cent, or 26 horses, have gone on to win at the Festival. 12 of those won on both occasions.
It’s not a great return in the grand scheme of things. But when you factor in that it’s predominantly British runners and the Irish have dominated the Cheltenham Festival for most of the last decade, it’s probably not that big of a surprise.
The host nation appears to have a stronger hand going into the 2026 Cheltenham Festival, and the ante-post markets look wider open than they have done in recent years. So, did we see a Festival winner on Trials Day? Let’s look at some of the leading contenders and assess their chances.
The New Lion – Champion Hurdle
The Champion Hurdle looked like it had the potential to be one of the races of the year at the start of the season. Constitution Hill was reportedly back to his best self, The New Lion was stepping up to open company after impressing as a novice, and Irish challengers like Lossiemouth posed a danger.
But it hasn’t exactly panned out that way. Constitution Hill fell in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle on reappearance, and his Cheltenham Festival hangs in the balance, while there are arguably questions The New Lion still must answer.
Dan Skelton’s stable star also fell in the Fighting Fifth, and while he bounced back in the International Hurdle on Trials Day, not everyone is convinced he’s a Champion Hurdle winner in waiting. Red-hot favourite Sir Gino was devastatingly pulled up with an injury, and The New Lion perhaps didn’t capitalise as convincingly as many would have hoped from there on in.
Many pundits and racing fans would have liked to see The New Lion roar clear of his two remaining rivals, Nemean Lion and Brentford Hope, up the hill, especially after receiving 3lb from the former. He did stay on to beat the pair by over a length, but it wasn’t a jaw-dropping performance that screamed Champion Hurdle winner.
With Sir Gino out of the picture, though, the day one feature race has been blown wide open. This weekend’s Dublin Racing Festival (DRF), where Lossiemouth and Brighterdaysahead will clash in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown, could be telling.
The New Lion is still Britain’s leading hope in the Champion Hurdle, and we perhaps haven’t seen him at his best yet this season, given the circumstances of his two appearances. It would be foolish to rule him out, so we’re still giving him a moderate chance.
Ma Shantou – Stayers’ Hurdle
The Stayers’ Hurdle is a race that has been dominated by the Irish since Lisnagar Oscar won for Rebecca Curtis in 2020, with Gordon Elliott and Gavin Cromwell landing two apiece and Henry de Bromhead taking home the top prize last year.
Elliott has the first two in the ante-post market with former winner Teahupoo and Honesty Policy, but Ma Shantou has shot up to third favourite after staying on impressively to win the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle from Impose Toi.
Nicky Henderson’s progressive eight-year-old had been Britain’s biggest chance after winning at Aintree, Newbury and Ascot in his three starts this season, but the manner in which Emma Lavelle’s seven-year-old streaked clear and won going away with plenty left in the tank is hard to ignore.
It’s hard to overlook Elliott’s pair, especially Teahupoo, following his dominant victory in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, but he proved to have chinks in his armour when beaten by Bob Olinger in last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle, and Ma Shantou has solid claims after his Trials Day performance.
As for Impose Toi, his Stayers’ Hurdle ambitions are up in the air after connections admitted they are debating whether to send the eight-year-old after he was well beaten in the trial.
Maestro Conti – Triumph Hurdle
Another winner on Trials Day for the Skelton team, Maestro Conti opened as the favourite for the Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle earlier in the week but was almost friendless in the market on the morning of the race, drifting out and losing his place at the fore of the market to Minella Yoga.
The old saying goes that horses don’t know their odds, and the exciting four-year-old proved that stepping up in class to Grade 2 company on what was just his second start on British soil after joining Skelton from France at the start of the season.
Maestro Conti, who won his sole outing across the Channel for Noel George and Amanda Zetterholm and followed up at Kempton Park last month, was a few lengths down on One Horse Town at the final hurdle but rallied on up the hill gamely under Harry Skelton and won going away from his rivals.
It wasn’t a performance that blew everyone away like his almost 10-length win at Kempton over Christmas, but it was a much more testing race when you factor in the track, soft ground, and that he was giving away a penalty to the field, so if anything, there was just as much to like.
When you strip back results like that, the ones that don’t look that appealing to the naked eye, you can sometimes find a bit of value, and the general 9/1 on offer for Maestro Conti could prove a good price at this stage. Ante-post favourite Narciso Has can lay down a marker at the DRF this weekend, though, so that’s worth watching.
Spillane’s Tower – Gold Cup
Spillane’s Tower boosted Ireland’s hopes of landing an eighth consecutive Gold Cup with a victory in the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase. The Jimmy Mangan-trained horse kicked the market leader Grey Dawning before the off, before keeping on to just hold L’Homme Presse.
The eight-year-old’s jumping wasn’t always fluent, but he finished the race strongly, and there was plenty to like. The Gold Cup will pose a completely different challenge. Facing the likes of Galopin Des Champs, Inothewayurthinkin, and The Jukebox Man will be a big step up in quality from this field.
But Spillane’s Tower might not have reached his ceiling yet, and horses can only beat what is put in front of them, which he did. It still seems somewhat likely that he’d be challenging for a place finish, at the very best, given that this year’s Gold Cup field already looks strong.
It’s also important to mention Grey Dawning. The kick before the off might not have been as costly as his mistake when trying to challenge two out from the finish. He couldn’t recover, but he stayed on behind the front pair, and he’s not out of the Gold Cup picture entirely despite his prep not going to plan.
Jagwar – Ultima Handicap Chase or TrustATrader Plate
Jagwar tested his Ryanair Chase credentials in the Premier Handicap Chase on Trials Day, but despite finishing second to Donnacha by just a head, joint trainers Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero appear set to lower the seven-year-old’s sights.
It will now likely be between the Ultima Handicap Chase or the TrustATrader Plate for Jagwar, with the ante-post markets now slightly preferring the former of those two races. It’s made more complicated as his stablemate and fellow JP McManus-owned horse, Iroko, is also in contention for the Ultima.
With that in mind, Jagwar could try and defend his Plate title. He won the race by almost three lengths last year, but it’s switched from the New course to the Old course this year, and that takes away the need for stamina, which Jagwar has in abundance.
There’s a lot to figure out between Guerriero, Greenall and McManus’ team between now and the Festival, but wherever Jagwar goes, he’ll have a solid chance of winning, even considering he’s now facing another hike in the weights after Trials Day.
