Wyndham Championship Analysis
Summary of Tips:
Gold Medal Pick - Hideki Matsuyama 20/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Silver Medal Pick - Davis Thompson 50/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Bronze Medal Pick - Alex Fitzpatrick 45/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Longshot to Watch - Michael Kim 80/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Prop Bet of the Week - Cameron Young, Hideki Matsuyama & Davis Thompson Top-20 - TBC (LiveScoreBet)
First Round Leader: Brian Campbell 200/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
*Odds correct when posting
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Introduction & Course Breakdown
Moving onto our final event of the regular season on the PGA Tour, we head to Sedgefield for the Wyndham Championship, which was won by Cameron Young last year as he claimed his first PGA Tour title. Young became the third first-time winner here in the last five years, highlighting how well this course can suit players looking to break through.
Sedgefield is a short course, creeping just over 7,000 yards, which is around -5% shorter than the average PGA Tour venue. It plays as a traditional par 70 with two par 5s, while scoring has averaged around 19-under over the last five years. Given the length of the course, distance isn't as much of an advantage here, with driving distance generally below the PGA Tour average and players often choosing not to hit driver off the tee. This is further highlighted by the list of recent winners, with short hitters such as Aaron Rai, Tom Kim, Lucas Glover and Kevin Kisner accounting for four of the last five champions.
Another reason for this is the importance of accuracy off the tee. The fairways are around -14% narrower than the PGA Tour average, while the scoring differential between the fairway and rough is +13% higher than usual, making it important for players to keep the ball in play. Sedgefield tends to reward the plotters rather than the bombers, and with GIR sitting around +9%pts above the PGA Tour average, players have plenty of opportunities to find the greens and separate themselves with their approach play, particularly from shorter distances.
The Bermuda greens are around average in size at approximately 6,000 square feet but typically run fast, making putting an interesting dynamic. Despite winners putting well during their winning weeks, the course has produced several champions who aren't necessarily elite putters, suggesting it's difficult for even the best putters to consistently separate themselves on these surfaces.
Last 5 Years Winner Trends
Looking at the previous five winners, there are clear trends around both course form and current form which should help guide us when picking our winner.
Course form appears to be almost irrelevant, with only one of the last five winners having previously recorded a top-10 at Sedgefield. The exception is Kevin Kisner, who had an impressive three top-10 finishes here before finally winning. While I wouldn't completely disregard course form, it certainly shouldn't be a major factor in the model and is perhaps best used as a deciding factor between similarly matched players.
The more important factor at this tournament is clearly current form, with every winner having recorded at least two top-10 finishes in their previous five starts. This strongly suggests you need to arrive at Sedgefield playing well if you're going to contend for the title.
Moving onto the strokes gained metrics from the week they won, two categories immediately stand out: approach play and putting. Approach edges putting as the most important, with Aaron Rai's 22nd-place ranking being the lowest of any winner. As mentioned earlier, GIR is significantly higher than the PGA Tour average here, so players need to be able to capitalise on those opportunities by putting their approaches in good positions.
Putting is a slightly strange one this week. As I've already alluded to, you clearly need to putt well to win at Sedgefield, but that doesn't necessarily mean you need to be an elite putter coming into the tournament. Instead, it appears to be more about spiking with the putter for four days. This is highlighted by the average putting ranking of the four winners with available data being just 73rd, excluding Tom Kim, who didn't have strokes gained data available in his winning season.
Looking at the other two metrics, off-the-tee play doesn't appear to be as important, although it can certainly help carry a player if they're struggling in other areas, as shown by Cameron Young. Meanwhile, around-the-green play appears to have very little importance, which is likely a result of the high GIR percentage at Sedgefield meaning players simply aren't required to scramble often enough for it to become a major differentiator.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach (Key yardages 125-175)
Driving Accuracy
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Birdie or Better %
Par 4 Scoring
Looking at the key stats for my model this week, and based on the need to hit quality approaches to set up plenty of birdie opportunities, I've chosen Strokes Gained: Approach as my number one metric. The key yardages are between 125-175 yards, with more than 40% of approaches coming from this range. However, it's also worth noting that while only around 13% of approaches come from both the 100-125 and 200-225 yard ranges, those figures are still above the PGA Tour average. Because of this, I'll be leaning more towards overall approach play rather than focusing solely on one specific yardage bucket.
Moving on, I've chosen Driving Accuracy as my second-most important metric. When looking at the top-five finishers from the last five years, their average ranking for driving accuracy was just as strong as their ranking for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, highlighting how important keeping the ball in play is at Sedgefield. Players need to find these narrow fairways regardless of how far they hit it, giving themselves the best possible chance to attack the pins.
In third, I've selected Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, which should help identify players who have their games together across the board. As highlighted by the current-form trends, players arriving in good form have historically performed well here, so this should help identify those who are consistently producing quality golf.
Finally, I've gone with two scoring metrics to round out the model: Birdie or Better %, with players needing to go low around Sedgefield, and Par 4 Scoring. With 11 par 4s making up the majority of the course, players who can consistently outperform the field on these holes should have a significant advantage.
Although I haven't included Putting as one of my core metrics, it's certainly something I'll be keeping an eye on when making my selections. As we've seen with previous winners, you don't necessarily need to be an elite putter to win at Sedgefield, you just need to find a hot week with the putter. I'll therefore be looking for players who have shown they can spike on the greens and, ideally, have done so relatively recently.
Stats Model - Top 10
Tom Kim
Ryan Gerard
Patrick Cantlay
Cameron Young
Davis Thompson
Doug Ghim
Ryo Hisatsune
Austin Smotherman
Hideki Matsuyama
Joel Dahmen
Wyndham Championship Tips:
Gold Medal Pick: Hideki Matsuyama 20/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
My gold pick this week is Hideki Matsuyama, who finally seems to be finding his best form again after an unusually inconsistent season.
Despite not having his best stuff for much of the year, Hideki still ranks ninth in my stats model, but if you filtered the numbers for more recent weeks, he'd probably be right at the top. The start of the season saw him massively struggle with his driver, hitting it off the planet on numerous occasions, including at the WM Phoenix Open, which is very unlike him. However, since the U.S. Open, he's found his driving again, with his accuracy averaging +10%pts better than the field during that stretch.
His approach numbers have remained remarkably consistent throughout the season, with Hideki losing strokes in just four events, and we know how dangerous he can become when the putter gets hot.
Most importantly, his recent form has really started to pick up, finishing inside the top-15 in each of his last four events, including two top-5 finishes in his last two starts. While course form isn't a major factor at Sedgefield, it's encouraging that he finished 19th on his last appearance here.
With his all-round game trending in the right direction and a proven PGA Tour winner already, I finally see enough reasons to come back to the Masters champion this week.
Silver Medal Pick: Davis Thompson 50/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
In silver, I'm back on Davis Thompson, who I haven't picked since backing him to win the John Deere Classic in 2024, a similarly low-scoring contest where you need to have your wedges dialled in and get hot with the putter.
Thompson is another man arriving in excellent form, coming into this event on the back of two consecutive top-10 finishes and ranking seventh in my stats model. He ranks 21st for Strokes Gained: Approach this season and sits eighth from 125-150 yards, a key range around Sedgefield.
While his driving accuracy is fairly average by PGA Tour standards, ranking 71st, he's gained in accuracy in each of his last two events. This is particularly encouraging when he's able to club down, as he did at the John Deere, where his fairway hit rate was +6%pts better than the field.
Thompson can also spike with the putter and did exactly that last week, gaining more than five strokes on the greens over the four rounds. To cap it off, he ranks 20th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and fifth in Par 4 Scoring this season.
Putting all of that together with his excellent course form, finishing inside the top 15 in both of his last two starts here, it feels like Thompson is in a great position to contend again this week.
Bronze Medal Pick: Alex Fitzpatrick 45/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
What an amazing first season on the PGA Tour Alex Fitzpatrick has had, and how good would it be if he could cap it off with a solo victory?
Despite dropping off slightly in his last couple of outings, Fitzpatrick has enjoyed the best season of his career across both tours and is yet to lose strokes on approach since joining the PGA Tour. It's worth noting there isn't a full strokes gained sample for him due to joining halfway through the season, but the numbers we do have are extremely encouraging.
Looking at Data Golf's approach proximity rankings, Fitzpatrick currently ranks sixth from 100-150 yards, which accounts for around 30% of approaches at Sedgefield. Even more impressive, he's the only player inside the top-6 of that ranking to have recorded more than 100 shots from the distance, giving us a much larger sample to work with.
He's also generally very accurate off the tee, regularly hitting a significantly higher percentage of fairways than the field. That has only really started to disappear over his last couple of events in the UK, where he also lost a significant amount of strokes putting. The putter could therefore be his biggest concern this week, having struggled to produce a genuine spike with it for much of the season.
With Fitzpatrick now returning to the U.S. for the first time since those two events in the UK, I'm hoping he can rediscover the form that saw him finish outside the top 20 just twice in his previous eight starts.
Longshot to Watch: Michael Kim 80/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
For my longshot this week, I'm going with another player in excellent form, Michael Kim, who, similarly to Matsuyama and Thompson, has recorded back-to-back top-10 finishes in his last two starts.
Unlike last season, this campaign hasn't quite gone to plan for Kim, but it finally looks like he's starting to piece things together, highlighted by his incredible 59 at the 3M Open a couple of weeks ago. What I particularly like is that he's put together those two recent performances in completely different ways, producing a masterclass on approach at the 3M Open before thriving around the greens at the Rocket Classic.
That gives me confidence that if he can put all facets of his game together in the same week, he could find himself right in the mix at Sedgefield. It's also encouraging that his driving accuracy appears to have improved over those last two starts, removing another area that had been holding him back.
Kim has already shown he can contend here, finishing inside the top five in 2023. If he can carry this recent form into the Wyndham and finally piece everything together, he feels like someone who could surprise a few this week.
Prop Bet of the Week: Cameron Young, Hideki Matsuyama & Davis Thompson Top-20 - TBC (LiveScoreBet)
For my prop bet this week, I'm sticking with three players in excellent form to finish inside the top 20, backing Cameron Young, Hideki Matsuyama and Davis Thompson.
As mentioned, all three enter this week in great form, with each coming in off back-to-back top-10 finishes and all three sitting inside the top 10 of my stats model. On top of that, they all finished inside the top 20 here on their last appearance, so I'm confident they can repeat that feat this week.
First Round Leader: Brian Campbell 200/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
For my First Round Leader this week, I'm backing Brian Campbell, who picked up two PGA Tour titles in his first season last year.
The journeyman has been hampered by injury this season, but announced last week that those issues might have finally subsided. That also coincided with his best approach week of the year, ranking first in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach.
Campbell does struggle for distance off the tee, but that shouldn't be a problem around this short course, and he's deadly accurate, ranking 22nd on Tour. As we've seen on plenty of occasions, he can get extremely hot, and even if that isn't something he can maintain for four rounds, there's a very good chance he could put it all together for one.
If you fancy him to have one of those weeks like he did last season, you can also get him at a massive 500/1 to win the whole thing.
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