Valero Texas Open Analysis
Summary of Tips:
Gold Medal Pick - Sepp Straka 22/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 2.25pts E/W
Silver Medal Pick - Jordan Spieth 16/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 2pts E/W
Bronze Medal Pick - Thorbjørn Olesen 50/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 1pts E/W
Longshot to Watch - David Lipsky 200/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 0.5pts E/W
Acca of the Week - Oleson, McCarthy & Mitchell Top 20 - 16/1 (LiveScoreBet)
First Round Leader - Keith Mitchell 45/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
*Odds correct when posting
CLAIM OFFER
Introduction
For part two of the pre Masters Texas swing, we head to San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open, where Brian Harman got the job done in difficult, windy and cold conditions last year. Sunday turned into a real game of attrition and, much like The Open Championship in 2023, Harman rose to the top despite a +3 final round.
The Valero is the last chance for players to qualify for The Masters Tournament, with the winner heading straight to Augusta on a private jet post-victory.
As shown last year, TPC San Antonio can be massively impacted by the weather due to its exposed nature, adding to what is already a difficult test. The cut line is rarely below par (interestingly, it was last year before the brutal weekend conditions hit).
The front nine is the real test, featuring seven of the nine hardest holes on the property. It also includes the hardest par 5, stretching over 600 yards and playing only slightly under par (-0.019) last year, with a bogey-or-worse rate of 16%.
San Antonio Weather Forecast
Adding to the complexity of TPC San Antonio, the course features 64 bunkers, including one in the middle of the 16th green. Strokes gained from bunkers here is below the PGA Tour average, further increasing the difficulty.
TPC San Antonio also boasts some of the hardest greens to hit on tour (59% GIR), and with fairways around 3 yards narrower than average, fairway percentage drops by roughly -3%pts, reinforcing that this is a true ball striker’s test.
Using Data Golf to assess correlating courses, two stand out. The first is Monterey Peninsula Country Club, which featured on the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am rotation until 2023. The second is Port Royal Golf Course, host of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, another venue heavily influenced by weather conditions.
Last 5 Years Winner Trends
Looking at the last five winners at TPC San Antonio, all had prior experience at the course before winning, with an average of four previous appearances. However, Corey Conners, had previously won here and that was on just his second appearance in 2019.
There is a slight lean toward a “horses for courses” angle. Both Jordan Spieth and Conners had top-10 finishes prior to their victories, with Conners never finishing outside the top-40 here, recording four top-20s in seven appearances. His success highlights the ideal player profile: a heavy emphasis on hitting fairways and greens, with less reliance on putting.
This is reinforced when analysing strokes gained metrics. Approach play stands out as the most important, with four of the last five winners ranking inside the top-5 in that category during their winning week. Beyond that, the data is more mixed, showing there’s more than one way to succeed at this venue.
Three of the five winners ranked top-10 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, reducing pressure on their short game, with none of those players ranking inside the top-15 for putting. The other two winners took a different route, ranking lower off the tee but compensating with elite putting (top-6), with Spieth also ranking 3rd around the green.
Akshay Bhatia stands out as a slight outlier, winning at -20, which set a 72-hole scoring record (matched by Denny McCarthy, who he defeated in a playoff). That week, his tee-to-green game was exceptional.
Interestingly, recent form appears to be the least predictive metric. Only Spieth entered with a top-10 (in fact, three), while across the other four winners, just 20% of their previous five starts resulted in top-20 finishes. This likely reflects how much weather can influence outcomes at the Valero Texas Open, often opening the door for less obvious contenders.
Key Stats
Ball Striking
Strokes Gained: Approach (Key yardages 150-200 & 100-125)
Good Drives %
Strokes Gained: Around the Green (Scrambling from bunkers)
Par 5 Scoring
Diving into the key stats for TPC San Antonio, and based on the ball-striking excellence of Conners and his affinity for this course, I’m making ball striking the most important stat to consider. Three of the last six winners have ranked 1st in this category, with only one ranking outside the top-10 (15th). Being able to gain off the tee and consistently hit greens in regulation goes a long way to alleviating the pressure this course applies.
Off the back of that, Good Drives % is another key metric. As long as players are finding greens after their tee shots, they’re in a strong position. The rough at TPC San Antonio isn’t overly penal if you’re far enough down the hole, but the further back you are, the more difficult those firm, fast greens become to hit from the rough.
As highlighted by previous winners, approach play is crucial. With greens tough to hit, precision is key. The main yardage buckets fall between 150–200 yards, with year to year it swinging between 150-175 or 175-200 being the most important, so it makes sense to group them together (accounting for roughly 35% of approaches).
I’ve also included 100–125 yards, as a higher-than-average number of approaches come from this range, likely due to players laying up on the longer par 5s. Because of this, par-5 scoring is also important. With four on the course, targeting players who score well on these holes, often through smart, strategic play is a strong angle.
To cover both player profiles, I’m also factoring in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, with an emphasis on bunker play. This allows for players who may not be elite ball strikers but can consistently get themselves out of trouble. Given how difficult these greens are to hit, everyone is going to miss them at some point, and when they do, the ability to scramble and avoid dropped shots is crucial at the Valero Texas Open.
Stats Model - Top 10
Collin Morikawa
Si Woo Kim
Ludvig Åberg
Sepp Straka
Ryo Hisatsune
Russell Henley
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
Keith Mitchell
Daniel Berger
Max Mcgreevy
Valero Texas Open Tips:
Gold Medal Pick: Sepp Straka 22/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 2.25pts E/W
First up this week, I’m going back to Sepp Straka, who I’ve already tipped twice this year, both resulting in top-15 finishes, and he now has four top-20s in his last five starts.
Straka is the definition of a ball striker, and despite ranking just 58th on the PGA Tour overall, he has placed inside the top-20 for ball striking in four of his last five events, showing that a couple of weaker performances have skewed his season-long numbers. He also currently sits 12th in Strokes Gained: Approach, ranking inside the top-15 for both key yardage ranges.
His par-5 scoring is another strength, ranking 12th, with strong numbers from the 100–125 yard range setting him up well to take advantage of the longer par 5s this week at TPC San Antonio.
Putting is often his weakness, but as shown by Conners winning here twice, elite putting isn’t essential at this venue and we know he can get hot from time to time. To round it off, Straka finished 22nd on his last appearance here, giving him a bit of positive course experience heading into this week.
Silver Medal Pick: Jordan Spieth 16/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 2pts E/W
I’ve had to make a last-minute change to my silver medal pick with Daniel Berger withdrawing.
After going around in circles for a while, I’ve landed on previous winner Jordan Spieth as my second pick, with his form starting to trend in the right direction. Spieth has recorded three top-12 finishes in his last five starts and has gained strokes on approach in each of his last four events, ranking top-10 in the field in his last two.
After showing improved driving metrics last year, Spieth seems to be reverting slightly to his more erratic style off the tee, but that’s come alongside the uptick in his approach play and the return of his elite short game, gaining strokes around the green in four of his last five starts. That combination is very similar to the formula that saw him win here in 2021.
As highlighted earlier, he also has strong course form at TPC San Antonio, including two top-12 finishes in the last two years since his victory. While the odds are on the shorter side, I’m not letting that put me off what looks like another strong winning opportunity.
Bronze Medal Pick: Thorbjørn Olesen 50/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 1pts E/W
For my final pick, I’ve gone for Thorbjørn Olesen, who hasn’t quite lit up the PGA Tour so far this season, but did finish T14 last time out.
Because of that, his season-long stats don’t immediately jump off the page, but he still ranks a solid 17th in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is key for this test. On top of that, he sits inside the top 60 for both Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Par-5 scoring, giving him a well-rounded profile for this course.
What really stands out, though, is his course form. In two starts here, he’s recorded two top-15 finishes, including a 5th-place finish last year.
With the weather forecast looking tricky again, it’s also worth noting that he was the top scorer in similar conditions last year, firing a final round of -4, which adds further confidence he can contend again.
Longshot to Watch: David Lipsky 200/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 0.5pts E/W
David Lipsky is my longshot for this week, having come close at the Valspar a couple of weeks ago, finishing 2nd.
Lipsky ranks 13th in my stats model, largely driven by his short game, sitting 8th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 4th in putting from 5–15 feet. While that may not be the most critical factor here, it’s still a strong indicator he can get up and down when inevitably missing these tough-to-hit greens.
From an approach perspective, he ranks inside the top-60 overall, but more notably 5th from 100–125 yards, a key range this week, especially when laying up on par 5s or attacking shorter par 4s (with five measuring under 410 yards), which effectively become driver-and-wedge holes for these players.
Despite having no course form at TPC San Antonio, his recent form and underlying stats make him an appealing punt, particularly at the price.
Acca of the Week: Oleson, McCarthy & Mitchell Top 20 - 16/1 (LiveScoreBet)
For my props pick this week, I’ve gone for an acca backing three players with strong course history to all finish Top-20.
Across their last three appearances at TPC San Antonio, all three have finished inside the top-20 every time, highlighting a clear affinity for the course. On top of that, they each arrive in good form, having all finished inside the top-15 in Houston, which should give them confidence returning to a venue they enjoy.
I’ve already outlined my case for Thorbjørn Olesen. Keith Mitchell ranks 8th in my stats model, sitting inside the top 50 across all key metrics apart from around-the-green play. He’s someone I’d strongly consider outright if not for his struggles to close tournaments.
Meanwhile, Denny McCarthy looks to be finding form, ranking top-20 in approach across his last two starts, which is a key indicator heading into this week.
First Round Leader: Keith Mitchell 45/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Finally, for first-round leader, I’ve gone with Keith Mitchell, Mr First Round Leader himself after landing three last year and only missing out here by one shot after firing an -8.
Mitchell hasn’t quite popped in first-round scoring this season, currently sitting 41st, but that could suggest he’s due one soon.
Statistically, he sets up well, ranking 26th in approaches from 150–200 yards, with a lot of approaches coming from this distance. Combine that with his strength off the tee (9th), and if the putter heats up, he has all the tools to go low early.
You can access all our latest Golf Odds over on LiveScoreBet.com
Find all Josh's latest Golf Betting Tips over on LiveScore.
