Truist Championship Analysis
Summary of Tips:
Gold Medal Pick - Xander Schauffele 10/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 3.5pts E/W
Silver Medal Pick - Adam Scott 33/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 1.25pts E/W
Bronze Medal Pick - Alex Smalley 66/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 0.75pt E/W
Longshot to Watch - Alex Fitzpatrick 100/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 0.5pts E/W
Acca of the Week - Schauffele Top 10, Scott & Fowler Top 20 - 7.4/1 (LiveScoreBet)
*Odds correct when posting
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Introduction & Course Breakdown
Next up on the PGA Tour schedule, we head to North Carolina for the Truist Championship, formerly known as the Wells Fargo Championship. Last year’s event was held at Philadelphia Cricket Club due to the PGA Championship taking place at Quail Hollow, where Scottie Scheffler cruised to victory.
It’s also worth noting that this event hasn’t always been played at Quail Hollow, it was moved in 2022 due to the Presidents Cup and in 2017 when Quail Hollow again hosted the PGA Championship. When the major is held here, the course is typically lengthened further and the rough grown out, placing even more emphasis on accuracy.
This week, Quail Hollow should present a similar test to last week at Trump National Doral (Blue Monster), long and demanding, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see some crossover on the leaderboard. The course plays at just under 7,600 yards, around +3% longer than the PGA Tour average, with round scoring typically just over par. That difficulty is largely driven by the par 3s and par 4s, which play significantly tougher relative to par, while the par 5s are more in line with tour average and offer the main scoring opportunities.
The closing stretch, known as the “Green Mile”, is one of the toughest on tour, collectively playing around +1 over par on average. The 17th is the standout, a long par 3 over water where even a miss right onto land leaves a very tricky up-and-down playing up to green with water on the other side.
Distance off the tee has historically been a key advantage here, with driving distance trending around +3% above tour average. While fairways are harder to hit (around -6%pts. below average), the rough isn’t overly punitive, meaning players can still score from it if they avoid the strategically placed bunkers and don’t get blocked out by the tree-lined fairways. Strong driving, both long and accurate, remains a major edge.
Looking at DataGolf comparison courses, strong overlaps can be found with Doral (Cadillac Championship), Los Angeles Country Club (host of the 2023 U.S. Open), and Oakmont Country Club ( 2016 & 2025 U.S. Open). Notably, Wyndham Clark picked up wins at both LACC and Quail Hollow in the same year, further reinforcing the correlation between these demanding setups.
Last 5 Years Winner Trends
Looking at previous winners, it quickly becomes clear that course form isn’t essential for success here. Both Wyndham Clark and Max Homa had average finishing positions north of 60 prior to winning, while Scottie Scheffler hadn’t even played the event before his victory, although that’s less surprising given who it is. In contrast, Rory McIlroy’s four wins here better highlight the specific skill set required to consistently contend.
Current form does stand out as a strong indicator. Four of the last five winners had recorded at least one top-10 finish in their previous five starts. The exception was Max Homa, whose win came somewhat unexpectedly after a fairly average run of form, largely driven by an exceptional putting performance.
From a strokes gained perspective, the importance of tee-to-green strength, particularly off the tee and on approach is clear. None of the last five winners ranked outside the top-20 in either category for the week. Approach play appears to be the most critical, largely due to the difficulty of gaining strokes with many longer iron shots required and greens in regulation sitting around -5%pts below the PGA Tour average. Off the tee is slightly less decisive but still demands an elite level to stay competitive on a course of this length.
Putting is another key differentiator. Four of the last five winners ranked inside the top-10 for the week, with three placing inside the top-3. Poor putters rarely get it done here, which aligns with the challenge posed by the complex Bermuda greens. If a player isn’t gaining significantly with the putter, they need to replicate something close to Scheffler’s all-round excellence, ranking highly across the rest of the game.
Around-the-green play, on the other hand, appears less consistent as a predictor. Previous winners show that it’s not essential to excel in this area, provided putting is strong enough to compensate. Ultimately, scrambling ability still matters, but it’s far less of a deciding factor compared to approach play and putting.
Key Stats
Ball Striking
Strokes Gained: OTT (Driving distance emphasis)
Strokes Gained: Approach (Key yardages 175-200 & 200+)
Putting 5-15ft
Par 5 scoring
Moving onto the key stats for the test Quail Hollow Club provides, I’ve started with ball striking as the primary metric given how crucial both off-the-tee performance and hitting greens in regulation (GIR) are here. Across the top-5 finishers in the last five editions, the average rank for ball striking was 10th, with off-the-tee averaging 18th and GIR 11th, interestingly even stronger than approach alone.
Next, I’ve doubled down on strokes gained: off-the-tee to further emphasise its importance. This is highlighted by Rory McIlroy’s repeated success at this venue. Within that, driving distance stands out as the more valuable component due to the course’s length, the average top-5 rank over the past five years is 21st for distance compared to 36th for accuracy.
Third, I’ve included strokes gained: approach with a clear focus on long-iron play. Key yardages here are 175–200 yards, which account for over 20% of approach shots, well above the PGA Tour average, and 200+ yards, which make up over 30%. This also factors in the demands of the longer par 3s, reinforcing the need for strong long-iron performance.
Given that four of the last five winners ranked inside the top 10 for putting, I’ve added putting from 5–15 feet. The only exception came during the PGA Championship year, which appears to be an outlier, with just one of the top-5 ranking inside the top 10. Excluding that, the average rank across the other four years is 16th, highlighting how crucial mid-range putting is for contention.
Finally, with the par 3s and par 4s playing so tough, I’ve included par-5 scoring. These holes represent the primary scoring opportunities, and players need to take advantage. When Rory McIlroy won here in 2024 at -17, he played the par 5s in -9, including two eagles on the final day, showing just how pivotal they can be in shaping the leaderboard.
Stats Model - Top 10
*Due to not enough rounds this season McIlroy is excluded
Xander Schauffele
Min Woo Lee
Cameron Young
Matt Fitzpatrick
Jake Knapp
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
Adam Scott
Rickie Fowler
Chris Gotterup
Ludvig Åberg
Truist Championship Tips:
Gold Medal Pick: Xander Schauffele 10/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 3.5pts E/W
For my gold medal pick this week, I’ve gone with Xander Schauffele, a two-time runner-up at Quail Hollow.
Schauffele looks to be gradually rediscovering the level that saw him win two majors in 2024. Across his last five starts, he’s recorded three top-10 finishes and hasn’t placed outside the top-25 since WM Phoenix Open, showing a strong level of consistency.
He also ranks 1st in my model, sitting inside the top-20 across all key metrics apart from putting. While his numbers from 5–15 feet aren’t great, he has still gained strokes putting in all but one event this season. Notably, in his last two appearances at Quail Hollow, he’s gained over a stroke on the greens each time, suggesting he’s comfortable on this surface.
It feels like only a matter of time before Schauffele gets another win, and given his strong course history and well-rounded profile, this looks like an ideal opportunity for him to finally get over the line here.
Silver Medal Pick: Adam Scott 33/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 1.25pts E/W
Next up for my silver medal pick, I’ve gone with Adam Scott, who continues to age like fine wine. Now 45, he still ranks 16th in driving distance on tour, which is seriously impressive. On top of that, he sits 5th in ball striking and 1st in approach, backed up by elite long-iron numbers, ranking 2nd from 175–200 yards and 5th from 200+ yards. He’s also been excellent on the par 5s, currently 6th in scoring, which as we know is key here.
Like Schauffele, putting has been the main thing holding him back this season. However, he does seem to have a strong feel for these greens, gaining over a stroke putting in two of his last three appearances here. In those starts, he’s finished inside the top-30 each time, including a best of 5th in 2023.
Scott’s best performances this season have also come on long, demanding layouts, finishing 4th at Doral and at Riviera, which further highlights how well his game suits this type of test. If the putter cooperates even slightly, there’s every chance he can turn back the clock and challenge for his first PGA Tour win since 2020.
Bronze Medal Pick: Alex Smalley 66/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 0.75pt E/W
In bronze, I’ve gone with another in-form player and North Carolina native, Alex Smalley. He’s trending strongly right now, with his last four results reading 21st–14th–2nd–7th, with the only natural next step being a win.
Smalley clearly enjoyed the test at Doral last week, ranking 6th in ball striking and 4th in approach, both strong indicators heading into another long, demanding layout. Over the season, he sits 24th in ball striking and 16th in approach, including 18th from 200+ yards, which further underlines his suitability for this test.
He also has some positive course experience at Quail Hollow, with two top-30 finishes in limited appearances. Given his current trajectory and comfort on this type of setup, he looks well placed to contend this week.
Longshot to Watch: Alex Fitzpatrick 100/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 0.5pts E/W
My longshot this week is a bit of a punt, but at the price I’m happy to take it, and that’s Alex Fitzpatrick.
He’s riding a wave of momentum right now, winning his first DP World Tour title in India before securing his PGA Tour card on his next start winning the Zurich Classic alongside his brother. He then followed that up with a 9th-place finish on his debut in a signature PGA Tour event, so confidence should be sky high.
Looking at his performance at Doral, a strong comparison course for this week, his numbers are really encouraging. He ranked 3rd in ball striking, including 1st off the tee and 17th in GIR. He also placed 12th in approach, underlining how well his long game is trending. The only thing that held him back was the putter, so if that warms up even slightly, he has the profile to massively outperform his odds.
Acca of the Week: Schauffele Top 10, Scott & Fowler Top 20 - 7.4/1 (LiveScoreBet)
All players arrive in strong form, all rank inside my top 10 in the model, and all have previous top-10 finishes at Quail Hollow - what’s not to like!
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