PGA Championship Analysis
Summary of Tips:
Gold Medal Pick - Cam Young 12/1 (7 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 4pts E/W
Silver Medal Pick - Matt Fitzpatrick 18/1 (10 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 2.75pts E/W
Bronze Medal Pick - Rickie Fowler 33/1 (10 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 1.5pt E/W
Longshot to Watch - Alex Smalley 110/1 (10 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 0.5pts E/W
Prop Bet of the Week - Matt Fitzpatrick Top-10 SUPER BOOSTED - 4/1 (LiveScoreBet)
First Round Leader - Rickie Fowler 45/1 (7 Places – LiveScoreBet)
*Odds correct when posting
CLAIM OFFER
Introduction & Course Breakdown
For the second major of the year, we head to Philadelphia for the PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club, which will be hosting its first ever major championship. The last significant event held here was the 2018 BMW Championship, won by Keegan Bradley, who defeated Justin Rose in a Monday playoff after a rain-soaked week that led to extremely low scoring.
Aronimink is a classic Donald Ross design, with Gil Hanse overseeing a major restoration that was completed in 2018. The course features many trademark Donald Ross characteristics, most notably the back-to-front sloping greens and a huge number of bunkers. Following Hanse’s redesign, which introduced additional fairway bunkering to better restore the original layout, the total bunker count rose to an astonishing 174.
For this PGA Championship setup, the course will play roughly 100 yards longer than it did in 2018, while the rough will also be grown out to provide an extra layer of defence. Hanse himself has noted that there is only so much that can be done to toughen the course unless conditions become firm and fast, which is unlikely in Philadelphia during May.
One particularly notable feature compared to recent PGA Championship venues is the size of the greens. At just over 8,000 square feet on average, they are around +55% larger than the greens seen at the previous four PGA Championship courses. When the course hosted in 2018, greens in regulation sat at 77%, +11%pts above the PGA Tour average. While not quite as quick, the size and undulation of these greens are reminiscent of Augusta National, meaning approach shots still need to find the correct sections of the green to avoid being repelled away or leaving near-impossible putts.
Although Aronimink will play around +2% longer than the average PGA Tour venue, it is still roughly -200 yards shorter than recent PGA Championship setups. That could reduce the overwhelming advantage bombers have enjoyed at recent editions. However, players with enough distance to carry the cross fairway bunkers should still gain an edge, especially given the wider-than-average fairways, which are approximately +16% broader than tour norm. Even so, avoiding the rough, particularly if conditions turn wet, will likely remain crucial.
Other notable Donald Ross venues include Oak Hill Country Club, host of the 2023 PGA Championship won by Brooks Koepka, East Lake Golf Club, home of the FedEx Cup finale, and Sedgefield Country Club, which hosts the Wyndham Championship.
Last 5 Years Winner Trends
Despite the PGA Championship rotating venues each year, there are still some strong trends we can take from previous winners. For this analysis, I’m removing Phil Mickelson’s 2021 victory as a complete outlier, although it is worth noting he had previously won the PGA Championship back in 2005.
Looking at the previous four winners, all had an extremely strong PGA Championship record before lifting the Wanamaker Trophy. Each had recorded at least one top-10 finish in their previous five appearances at the event, while both Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka were already winners of the championship.
Current form has also been a major indicator. The last four winners averaged a finishing position better than 20th across their previous five starts, with each posting at least three top-10 finishes during that stretch. That strongly highlights the level of form typically required to win this event. In addition, every one of those four players had finished inside the top 10 at the previous major championship (The Masters) while even Mickelson managed a respectable 21st before his surprise win.
Looking at strokes gained data from the week these players lifted the Wanamaker Trophy also reinforces the importance of elite tee-to-green play. Three of the last five winners ranked inside the top-10 off the tee, while four of the last five ranked inside the top-10 for approach. Across those winners, the average tee-to-green rank for the week was 4th, underlining just how important high-level ball striking is in this championship.
Finally, analysing Keegan Bradley’s strokes gained profile from his win at the 2018 BMW Championship at Aronimink highlights the potential importance of putting at this venue specifically. Bradley ranked 1st in putting that week, gaining an enormous seven strokes across four rounds, which accounted for roughly 60% of his total strokes gained. Tee-to-green performance made up the remaining 40%, a far less common split on the PGA Tour, where elite ball striking usually dominates.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Approach (Key yardages 125-150 & 200+)
Putting 5-15ft & 3-putt Avoidance
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Par 4 scoring
Focusing on the key stats I think are required to win here, I’ve started with strokes gained: tee-to-green due to the clear importance of current form and elite all-round ball striking. Looking back at the 2018 BMW Championship at Aronimink Golf Club, the average tee-to-green ranking among the top 10 finishers was 11th, reinforcing how important this metric is on this layout.
Next up, I strongly considered putting, but ultimately felt like you couldn't win without your approach game being dialled. With the huge undulating greens, simply hitting greens in regulation likely won’t be enough, players need to find the correct sections of the greens to create realistic birdie looks and avoid difficult two-putts. That’s why many are referring to Aronimink as a “second-shot golf course,” similar in style to Augusta. Key yardages based on the last event here, although they may vary slightly due to the course being lengthened, are 125–150 yards, which accounted for around 18% of approaches and sits above PGA Tour average, alongside 200+ yards, which made up just under 30% thanks in part to the demanding par 3s.
Third, for obvious reasons, I’ve included putting. Four of the top five finishers in 2018 ranked inside the top-10 for the week in putting, with an average of 52% of their strokes gained coming on the greens. I’ve specifically focused on putting from 5–15 feet, which is the key scoring range, alongside 3-putt avoidance to limit costly mistakes on these large surfaces.
In addition to that, I’ve also included strokes gained: off-the-tee. While the top finishers in 2018 didn’t necessarily dominate this category, I expect it to become more important this week due to the PGA Championship setup. With the course being lengthened and the rough grown out, there should be a far greater premium on finding fairways, especially if conditions turn wet and the rough becomes difficult to play from, or alternatively if the course firms up and starts running faster.
Finally, with Aronimink playing as a par 70, there are twelve par 4s, placing a huge emphasis on performance across those holes. Players who can separate themselves on the par 4s, survive the demanding par 3s, and capitalise on the limited par-5 opportunities should put themselves in an excellent position to contend, particularly if scoring conditions become favourable.
Stats Model - Top 10
*LIV & DP World Tour players excluded
Ludvig Åberg
Cameron Young
Scottie Scheffler
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Alex Smalley
Matt Fitzpatrick
Chris Gotterup
Patrick Cantlay
PGA Championship Tips:
Gold Medal Pick: Cam Young 12/1 (7 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 4pts E/W
In my gold medal position, I’ve gone back to Cam Young for the second major running. Since The Masters Tournament, Young has continued his electric form, following it up with a dominant victory at Doral before adding another solid top-10 finish at last week’s Truist Championship.
Young also came extremely close to winning the PGA Championship in 2022, missing out on a playoff by a single shot. His major championship pedigree is already incredibly strong, with top-5 finishes in all four majors, including two in his last three major starts.
Statistically, he profiles perfectly for this setup. He currently ranks 6th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, including 6th off the tee and 21st in approach. While he isn’t regarded as one of the elite putters on tour, he still ranks inside the top 50 and has shown the ability to gain strokes on similar large, undulating greens like those at Augusta. He’s also capable of producing spike putting performances, as shown during his third round at the Truist.
Finally, he ranks 2nd in par-4 scoring this season, which is a huge advantage on this par-70 setup. If Young brings his best golf this week, there may not be many players capable of stopping him.
Silver Medal Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick 18/1 (10 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 2.75pts E/W
For my silver medal selection, I’ve gone with another player arriving in excellent form, Matt Fitzpatrick. Across his last five starts, he’s picked up three victories, including the win that secured a PGA Tour card for his brother, which must have come with immense pressure.
Looking at his numbers this season, Fitzpatrick ranks 3rd in strokes gained: tee-to-green and 5th in approach, while also excelling on par 4s where he ranks 11th in scoring. Off the tee, he sits 28th overall, combining elite accuracy, ranking 6th, with underrated distance, where he still ranks 57th. That balance could prove particularly valuable at Aronimink.
Although The Masters Tournament perhaps didn’t go quite as he would have hoped, he still managed a top-20 finish. More importantly, he already owns major-winning pedigree after capturing the U.S. Open at Brookline in 2022. That same season, he finished inside the top-5 at the PGA Championship after playing in the final group on Sunday, before adding another top-10 finish at the event last year, ticking another few trend boxes.
Bronze Medal Pick: Rickie Fowler 33/1 (10 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 1.5pt E/W
In the bronze medal position, I’ve gone with Rickie Fowler, a player I’ve overlooked several times in recent weeks despite him consistently ranking inside my model’s top-10. Even though he only comes out 15th overall this week, I’ve decided this is finally the spot to back him.
Despite the lower overall ranking, Fowler stands out in several of the key metrics. He currently ranks 7th in putting from 5–15 feet and 9th in 3-putt avoidance, both hugely important here. He also sits 2nd in par-4 scoring average, while ranking a respectable 32nd in approach, made more encouraging by the fact he’s gained over a stroke on approach in each of his last three starts.
Fowler also has positive experience at Aronimink, finishing 8th at the 2018 BMW Championship despite an uninspiring final round. Importantly, he ranked 3rd in putting that week, suggesting these greens suit his eye well.
While his recent major championship record hasn’t been particularly inspiring, Fowler has produced multiple top-10 finishes in majors throughout his career and has the experience to contend if his putter heats up.
Longshot to Watch: Alex Smalley 110/1 (10 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 0.5pts E/W
For my longshot this week, I’m sticking with Alex Smalley after backing him at last week’s Truist Championship. Smalley arrives in excellent form, having finished outside the top-20 only once in his last five starts, and even that was just a 21st-place finish.
While he has limited major championship experience overall, he has played the PGA Championship three times and finished inside the top-30 on two occasions. His best result came at Oak Hill in 2023, another classic Donald Ross layout, which is an encouraging crossover given this week’s venue.
Smalley also ranks inside the top-10 in my model, boosted heavily by both his recent form and statistical profile. He currently sits 23rd in strokes gained: tee-to-green, with approach play standing out as his strongest area, ranking 27th overall and 23rd specifically from 200+ yards. Another encouraging metric is par-4 scoring, where he ranks 11th this season. If he can continue to excel in that department, it should at least give him a strong chance of placing, and potentially much more if the putter cooperates.
Prop Bet of the Week: Matt Fitzpatrick Top-10 SUPER BOOSTED - 4/1 (LiveScoreBet)
For my prop bet of the week, I’ve gone with a SUPER BOOSTED Matt Fitzpatrick top-10 finish. Fitzpatrick has been flying this season, finishing inside the top-10 in five of his eleven starts, including three of his last five events, all of which resulted in victories.
His recent major championship form has also been strong, recording top-10 finishes in two of his last four majors, including last year’s PGA Championship.
As previously highlighted, there’s a lot to like about Fitzpatrick’s profile this week. The hope is that last week simply served as a stepping stone to peak again for a tournament that looks extremely well suited to his game.
First Round Leader: Rickie Fowler 45/1 (7 Places – LiveScoreBet)
For my first-round leader selection this week, I’ve gone with Rickie Fowler. As mentioned previously, Fowler arrives in strong form and should be full of confidence after firing a 6-under final round last week, as well as an impressive 8-under second round earlier in the tournament.
The last time he played at Aronimink in 2018, he posted three rounds of 65, with only a below-average final round preventing him from seriously contending. His putting numbers this season are another major positive, particularly given how important that skillset is here.
With a proven record of putting well at Aronimink and signs that his tee-to-green game is returning to its best, I’m happy to back Fowler to come out quickly and make an early move on Thursday.
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