Houston Open Analysis
Summary of Tips:
Gold Medal Pick - Nicolai Højgaard 28/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 2.25pts E/W
Silver Medal Pick - Sahith Theegala 50/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 1.50pts E/W
Bronze Medal Pick - Ryan Fox 66/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 1.25pts E/W
Longshot to Watch - Alejandro Tosti 150/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 0.5pts E/W
Props Pick of the Week - Stephen Jaeger Group E Winner - 7/2 (LiveScoreBet)
First Round Leader - Alejandro Tosti 90/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Introduction
For part one of the two-part Texas swing, we head to Memorial Park Golf Course for the Houston Open, where my selection last year Min Woo Lee picked up his maiden PGA tour title holding off a late charge from world number one Scottie Scheffler.
Memorial Park is the third-longest course on the PGA Tour and plays as a par 70 with just two par 5s, meaning it effectively plays even longer. The par 4s average around 480 yards (+4% vs tour average), with five stretching beyond 490 yards, including the opening and closing holes.
Since 2024, the tournament moved from the autumn swing to March, which has slightly altered how the course plays. The use of overseed now creates tighter conditions around the greens compared to Bermuda, increasing the difficulty of scrambling, meaning missing greens is more penal.
Interestingly, missing the fairway has become less impactful. The scoring difference between fairway and rough has reduced significantly, shifting the advantage toward distance over accuracy. This change has influenced the type of winners we’ve seen here, favouring longer hitters.
In terms of comparable courses, Torrey Pines (South Course) stands out, where bombers typically thrive. Another is Corales Golf Course, host of the Corales Puntacana Championship, which shares similarities in terms of setup and player profile.
Last 5 Years Winner Trends
When looking at previous winners of the Houston Open, there are a few key caveats to consider. Firstly, as mentioned, the move from November to March in 2024 has slightly altered the profile of winners, meaning results prior to this shift should be taken with a pinch of salt.
Secondly, with the event only moving to Memorial Park in 2021, there is very limited course history to draw from. Very few winners had prior experience here, with only Finau and Jaeger having played the course before winning. This makes assessing “horses for courses” far less reliable than at more established venues.
That being said, there are still some signs of course correlation. Stephan Jaeger had recorded a top-10 at Memorial Park prior to his win and followed it up with an 11th-place finish on his next visit. Similarly, Tony Finau finished 2nd the year after his victory, giving some weight, albeit limited, to the “horses for courses” angle.
Looking at form entering the tournament since the move to March, the surface-level view suggests fairly modest form from both Min Woo Lee and Jaeger, with just one top-10 between them. However, digging deeper adds more context.
Jaeger’s top-10 came at Torrey Pines earlier that year, with the correlation being further strengthened by Finau’s record at Torrey Pines, where he has finished inside the top-15 in four of his last five starts. Despite no top-10’s for Min Woo Lee in his previous five starts, he had finished top-20 in five of his last seven events since the turn of the year.
Focusing again on the post-2024 renewals of the Houston Open, strokes gained data highlights just how important putting has been. Both recent winners ranked inside the top 3 for putting, and extending that back to 2021, every winner has ranked inside the top-5 for the week, underlining it as a key differentiator.
There has been some variation in other stats over the past couple of years, largely driven by weather conditions. Last year’s rain delays softened the course significantly, making greens easier to hold and increasing GIR by around +5%pts year-on-year. As a result, approach play became even more important, while around-the-green play became less predictive, with the average ranking of top-5 finishers in that category dropping from around 17th to 33rd. It’s a good reminder to keep a close eye on weather conditions this week, as they can materially shift the statistical profile.
Houston Weather Forecast
Off the tee, the importance appears slightly muted on paper, but this is largely due to the reduced penalty for missing fairways over the past two seasons. With less penal rough, accuracy has become less critical, and the emphasis has shifted toward simply advancing the ball as far down the hole as possible, reinforcing the advantage of distance at Memorial Park.
Key Stats
Driving Distance
Ball Striking
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (5-15ft)
Par 5 Scoring
As I just mentioned, driving distance is key to success at Memorial Park due to its length. Looking at the past two years, the average driving distance rank among top-5 finishers has been 20th, compared to 35th for accuracy, highlighting that distance is favoured over pure Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.
Building on that, I’ve prioritised ball striking. Given the difficulty around the greens, I want players who can combine strong driving with hitting greens in regulation, particularly with greens that are often hard to hold (Key approach yardages are in the 150–175 range & 200+). While this can be influenced by weather, the current forecast, with little to no rain expected, suggests conditions more in line with 2024, so I’m leaning toward that skill set.
Based on this, and with four of the top six finishers in 2024 ranking inside the top-15 for Strokes Gained: Around the Green, I see short game as another crucial factor given how difficult these elevated greens are to play into. I’m pairing that with strong putters who can limit bogeys when they do miss greens and capitalise on scoring chances. This aligns with the trend of the last five winners of the Houston Open, all of whom ranked inside the top-5 in putting during their winning week.
Finally, with only two par 5s and a set of long, demanding par 4s, par 5 scoring becomes critical. Excluding last year’s softer conditions, winning scores have averaged around -13, and consistently birdieing the par 5s is essential if players are to reach that mark.
Stats Model - Top 10
Scottie Scheffler
Jake Knapp
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
Min Woo Lee
Adam Scott
Ryo Hisatsune
Ryan Gerard
Chris Gotterup
Haotong Li
Ryan Fox
Houston Open Tips:
Gold Medal Pick: Nicolai Højgaard 28/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 2.25pts E/W
My first pick for this week is a man I’ve had earmarked for this event since the start of the season, Nicolai Højgaard. He is known for his driving distance, currently ranking 14th in this metric and even higher for ball speed (4th), with his distance numbers slightly suppressed by the types of courses he’s played.
What’s really stood out this season, though, is his approach play. He currently ranks 20th on tour and sits inside the top 50 for both key yardage ranges, which is a strong fit for this test. On the surface, his around-the-green numbers don’t jump off the page (67th), but when you isolate scrambling from the fairway, he actually ranks 4th, with this being key for this week.
He made his debut here last season and missed the cut, but that doesn’t concern me too much given how much his game has progressed. Since January, he’s recorded three top-10 finishes and has finished inside the top 30 in six of his last eight starts, including a solid 22nd at correlating course Torrey Pines.
Silver Medal Pick: Sahith Theegala 50/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 1.50pts E/W
Next up I’ve gone with Sahith Theegala, who I’m pleased to see looks back to his best after a wrist injury impacted him last year.
So far this season, he’s recorded three top-10 finishes, including at Torrey Pines (also 4th there in 2022). He has stalled slightly in recent weeks with a 32nd at The Players and a missed cut at the Valspar, but I don’t think those venues play to his strengths, both demanding precision off the tee, with Valspar in particular not suiting his more creative style.
Theegala thrives on courses where he can be slightly erratic off the tee without being heavily punished, which is exactly what Memorial Park offers. He ranks 12th in my model, and while not elite off the tee, he’s still solid, sitting 60th in driving distance. Around the greens is where he can really separate himself, ranking 29th in scrambling from the fairway, and his creativity should be a big asset when attacking these elevated pins.
Add in that he ranks 8th from 150–175 yards and 12th in par-5 scoring, and this sets up as a course he can really take apart.
Bronze Medal Pick: Ryan Fox 66/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 1.25pts E/W
My bronze medal pick is Ryan Fox, who ranks 10th in my stats model.
Another bomber, he sits 16th in driving distance, and while his overall approach play is around middle of the pack on tour (75th), he pops from 200+ yards ranking 4th, a key range here with roughly 30% of approaches coming from that distance.
He also spikes in scrambling from the fairway (12th), likely aided by his experience on the links, and ranks 35th in putting from 5–15 feet, with the ability to get hot on the greens. Adding to that, he sits inside the top 30 for both birdies or better % and bogey avoidance, which is ideal on a course where scoring opportunities need to be taken while limiting mistakes.
Fox finished 15th here last season, showing comfort on this setup, and arrives in solid form with four top-25 finishes in his last four starts, including a top-10. Coming off two wins last season, we know he has the ability to get the job done at this level.
Longshot to Watch: Alejandro Tosti 150/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 0.5pts E/W
I’d normally want more to go off for a longshot, but this is very much a horse-for-course play with Alejandro Tosti. He has two starts at Memorial Park and has finished top-5 on both occasions, which immediately catches the eye.
He ranks 14th in ball speed, indicating strong distance off the tee, and in both appearances here he has gained strokes across all major categories.
His recent form doesn’t look great on paper, making just 1 cut in his last 7 starts, but there are some positives. He did make the cut last time out at the Valspar, finishing 30th, and interestingly his current form mirrors the previous two seasons, where he arrived here with very little momentum before performing well.
At these odds, it feels like a risk worth taking for a player who clearly has an affinity for this setup.
Props Pick of the Week: Stephen Jaeger Group E Winner - 7/2 (LiveScoreBet)
For my props pick, I’ve gone for the group betting market, selecting Stephan Jaeger from Group E (Rasmus Højgaard, Alex Smalley, Ricky Castillo, Jason Day).
As a previous winner at the Houston Open, Jaeger has also posted finishes of 11th, 9th, and 35th in his four starts here, seeming like a consistent performer at this venue.
With the weather forecast shaping up similarly to when he won in 2024, I’m hoping for another solid showing, especially off the back of a 7th-place finish last week and a strong performance earlier this season at Torrey Pines (5th at the Farmers Insurance Open).
Looking at the rest of the group, there’s no one who overly concerns me. Rasmus Højgaard is probably the biggest threat, but he hasn’t been popping in the key statistical categories in the same way as his brother recently.
First Round Leader: Alejandro Tosti 90/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Finally, for my first-round leader prediction, I’m going back to Alejandro Tosti, who was joint leader here last year.
I’m hoping he brings some confidence into this week off the back of his first made cut of the season, finishing strongly with his best approach performance, ranking 4th in the field in his final round.
Let’s hope for a fast start from the Argentinian
