FedEx St. Jude Championship Analysis
Summary of Tips:
Gold Medal Pick - Tommy Fleetwood 16/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Silver Medal Pick - Hideki Matsuyama 20/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Bronze Medal Pick - Si Woo Kim 33/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Longshot to Watch - JJ Spaun 55/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Prop Bet of the Week - Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama, Si Woo Kim & Tom Kim Top-20 - 13/1 (LiveScoreBet)
*Odds correct when posting
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Introduction & Course Breakdown
After a dramatic finish to the regular season, we now move onto the FedExCup Playoffs and the first event of the three-week series, the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind in Memphis. Justin Rose won in dramatic style last year, defeating J.J. Spaun in a playoff after Fleetwood threw it all away over the final few holes.
TPC Southwind has hosted this event since 2022 after previously hosting the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, so there is plenty of course history to work with. It's a par 70 measuring around 7,200 yards, which is around average for a PGA Tour venue, although it can play slightly longer due to having just two par 5s.
Similar to last week, driving distance isn't as important here, with a premium on finding fairways. The fairways are around -29% narrower than average, while fairway hit percentage is down around -4%pts. On top of this, missing the fairway is particularly costly due to factors such as trees obstructing angles into the greens and water coming into play, with the scoring differential +18% higher than usual. There are also an average of 0.7 penalty shots per round, which is around +84% higher than the PGA Tour norm.
Based on this, the course is very tactical, with plotters often successful here. Precise shots off the tee are required to give players a chance of hitting these smaller-than-average greens, which measure around 4,500 sq ft, with GIR down around -4%pt compared to the PGA Tour average. Once on the greens, they aren't particularly difficult, so it can ultimately come down to who gets hot with the putter that week.
Last 5 Years Winner Trends
Looking at the winners over the last five years, it clearly shows that distance isn't a necessity here. Despite the average Strokes Gained: Off the Tee ranking for the week they won being relatively high at 19th, this is largely due to these players being strong for accuracy, with an average ranking of 21st, compared to 42nd for driving distance.
The clear winner for the most important Strokes Gained metric is approach play, with an average ranking of 7th amongst the winners and only one player ranking outside the top-10. Putting is the next-highest metric, but as mentioned, it doesn't seem to be a prerequisite coming into the tournament. Instead, I'd focus on players who have shown they can spike with the putter, particularly on Bermuda greens.
Around-the-green play, for the second week in a row, doesn't seem to be the route to winning here. However, having the ability to scramble is definitely a plus this week, with the smaller greens meaning players will inevitably need to get up and down at some point.
Looking at recent form entering the event, it seems players need to be bringing their A-game, with all five winners having recorded at least one top-10 finish in their previous five starts. Even more impressively, the lowest finish in their final event before winning at TPC Southwind was 21st, highlighting the level of form required to overcome the challenges this course presents.
On top of this, course form also appears to be important, with no player winning on their debut here. Three of the five winners had recorded at least one top-10 before winning, while every champion had finished inside the top 15 at least once at TPC Southwind.
Based on all of this, the formula seems pretty straightforward: be accurate off the tee, strong with your approach play, have the ability to spike with the putter—particularly on Bermuda—and arrive in good form with proven course experience.
Easy, right?
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach (Key yardages 150-200)
Ball Striking
Par 4 Scoring
Bogey Avoidance
Good Drives %
At the top of my key stats this week is approach play, with the winners here highlighting the importance of this statistic, while even looking at the top-five finishers from the last five events, their average ranking is 13th. The key yardages are between 150-200 yards, with more than 40% of approaches coming from this range. However, 125-150 yards can also spike depending on the weather, so this range must also be considered.
Next, I'm going to talk about my second and fifth stats, which go hand in hand: Ball Striking and Good Drives %. There is some crossover between the two, but essentially I'm looking for players who don't necessarily need to hit every fairway, but have the ability to position themselves around the course to give themselves the best chance of finding the green with their second shot, and then have the ability to execute those approaches.
My third-most important stat, as with any traditional par 70, is Par 4 Scoring. With these making up the majority of the holes, this is where players need to separate themselves from the field.
Finally, my fourth stat is Bogey Avoidance. I was tossing up whether to go with Birdie or Better %, given the winning score is usually around 15-under, but I think Bogey Avoidance is the better fit. There are plenty of big numbers out there, so if players can limit their mistakes, they should put themselves in a strong position. It also indirectly takes into account players' ability to scramble, which is going to be important when trying to save par after missing these smaller greens.
Stats Model - Top 10
Scottie Scheffler
Si Woo Kim
Matt Fitzpatrick
Patrick Cantlay
Tom Kim
Kurt Kitayama
Cameron Young
Jordan Smith
Collin Morikawa
Michael Thorbjornsen
FedEx St. Jude Championship Tips:
Gold Medal Pick: Tommy Fleetwood 16/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
For my first pick, I've gone for a man who has done everything but win here: Tommy Fleetwood. As previously mentioned, he threw his lead away last year over the final few holes, missing out on the playoff by one stroke, and he has also previously finished third here in 2023.
This course seems like a perfect fit for Fleetwood, who sits 11th in my model, with the Englishman seemingly thriving when courses force you to think your way around them. Looking at his strokes gained data over his last six tournaments, Fleetwood has only lost strokes in one category twice: putting at the Scottish Open and around the green at the Canadian Open. He has gained in all other categories, meaning he's gained strokes on approach and off the tee in all six events, while gaining in the other two categories in five of six.
Based on this, as you can imagine, his form is electric. He hasn't finished outside the top 15 in any of those six events, and perhaps he can become a man who now dominates the playoff events having won the FedExCup last year.
Silver Medal Pick: Hideki Matsuyama 20/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
I'm back in on Hideki this week after his third top-10 in his last three starts. As mentioned last week, his driving has really turned around since the Travelers and continued last week, gaining in accuracy for the sixth consecutive event. This was something that plagued him early on this season, hence his 118th ranking in Good Drives Gained.
Looking at the key approach ranges, he ranks inside the top 20 in both 150-175 yards and 175-200 yards, which will be crucial around this course and should set him up nicely if he continues to find the fairways.
What fills me with even more confidence is that he has already won here and hasn't finished outside the top 20 in his last five starts at TPC Southwind. It really feels like Hideki has been biding his time, and I've had this event earmarked for him for a while now, especially after his recent turn in form.
Bronze Medal Pick: Si Woo Kim 33/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
In bronze is Si Woo Kim, who I've avoided for most of the season until now. Outside of Scottie Scheffler and maybe Sam Burns, Si Woo is one of the most deserving players of a win this season, having been amazingly consistent all year, which is very unlike him.
Si Woo has two top-10 finishes in his last three events, both coming across the pond at the Scottish Open and Open Championship, meaning he has finished inside the top-10 in 50% of his events this season. In addition to his excellent form, he has also played well here, finishing inside the top-16 twice in his last three starts.
Highlighting what a great course fit he is, Si Woo ranks second in my stats model, currently sitting 3rd for approach this season, including ranking inside the top-3 from both of the key yardages. He also ranks 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 15th in Bogey Avoidance and 10th in Good Drives Gained, with his lowest-ranked stat being 28th for Ball Striking.
Based on this, it seems like Si Woo can better his 14th-place finish here last year, and if his putter finally cooperates, he looks primed to contend. With his odds finally lengthening a little, I'm willing to take a punt on him.
Longshot to Watch: JJ Spaun 55/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
For my longshot this week, I'm not going too far down the board due to the strength of the competition, and I've landed on the man who lost here in the playoff last year, J.J. Spaun.
Although his form hasn't been great over his last few starts, he did manage a seventh-place finish at the Travelers, which came within his last five events.
Spaun ranks 12th in my model and fifth for approach this season, sitting 11th from 150-175 yards and 4th from 175-200 yards. These key ranges account for more than 40% of approaches this week. In addition to this, he currently ranks 21st in Good Drives Gained, which should help put him in good positions to attack the pins from these ranges.
What has let Spaun down this year has been his putter, ranking 128th on Tour. However, he's shown that if he can even slightly spike with the putter, he can compete, recording three top-10 finishes and a 24th in the tournaments where he's gained more than half a stroke putting.
With his past success at this course and his trending approach game, Spaun looks capable of contending again this week.
Prop Bet of the Week: Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama, Si Woo Kim & Tom Kim Top-20 - 13/1 (LiveScoreBet)
I've beefed up my prop bet this week with four selections to finish inside the top 20, and with the reduced field and the form of these players, I'm confident it can cash in.
Three of the four players finished inside the top 20 last year, with Tom Kim not making the playoffs last season. All four also come into this week in great form and have a strong pedigree around this course, with 66% of their last three starts resulting in a top-20 finish. I think that's a great return given the quality of the field.
All four are also gaining strokes with their approach play recently and are accurate drivers of the golf ball, which should help them avoid the big numbers around TPC Southwind. The main thing holding most of them back is their putting, but if they can putt to an average level, I think they have enough elsewhere in their games to comfortably finish inside the top-20.
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