Cadillac Championship Analysis
Summary of Tips:
Gold Medal Pick - Colin Morikawa 18/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 2.5pts E/W
Silver Medal Pick - Patrick Cantlay 25/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 1.5pts E/W
Bronze Medal Pick - Kurt Kitayama 40/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 1pt E/W
Longshot to Watch - Daniel Berger 80/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 0.5pts E/W
Acca of the Week - Morikawa, Cantlay & Henley Top 20 - 4.5/1 (LiveScoreBet)
*Odds correct when posting
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Introduction & Course Breakdown
Next up we have another signature event with the inaugural Cadillac Championship held in Miami at Trump National Doral Golf Club on the famed ‘Blue Monster’ course.
Doral was a regular stop on the PGA Tour for over 50 years as the Doral Open until 2006, before becoming a WGC event up to 2016, with Adam Scott winning the final edition, edging out Bubba Watson by a stroke.
Tiger Woods also enjoyed huge success here, winning four times. There’s also been a clear crossover with The Masters, with champions like Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, and Phil Mickelson all winning here, while Bubba Watson himself finished runner-up here three times alongside his two Masters wins.
The Blue Monster was redesigned in 2013 by Gil Hanse and now stretches to 7,700 yards, around +7% longer than the PGA Tour average. As the name suggests, water is everywhere with players averaging just under one penalty shot per round and combined with the length, it consistently plays over par.
Fairways hit are down around -8%pts vs the PGA Tour norm, despite being slightly wider (+2 yards). This is largely because players are aggressive off the tee to gain better angles, knowing the rough isn’t overly penal as long as water is avoided.
That sets up approaches into large, undulating greens with significant run-offs, where precision is key with GIR -5%pts down vs PGA tour norm . It’s very difficult to gain strokes on approach, and missing in the wrong spots leads to extremely tough recoveries.
Around the greens, the challenge increases further due to the contours and tight lies, making scrambling unreliable as a long-term strategy. On the greens, the emphasis shifts more toward lag putting and three-putt avoidance rather than holing lots of birdies.
Looking at Data Golf comparisons, similar tests include:
TPC Harding Park (2020 PGA Championship)
Quail Hollow (Truist/Wells Fargo)
Muirfield Village (Memorial Tournament)
There is also comparisons to Bay Hill due to the impact of water and overall difficulty.
Last 5 Years Winner Trends
All but one of the last five winners had at least five prior appearances at the course before winning, although Tiger Woods had already tasted victory here. The exception was Patrick Reed, who won on debut in 2014. With the course having been off the tour for a decade, course form is effectively non-existent.
Excluding Woods for obvious reasons, the other repeat participants had each recorded at least two top-20 finishes prior to winning, with both Adam Scott and Dustin Johnson posting two top-5s. This points towards a clear “horses for courses” angle, if you’re willing to look that far back.
Recent form also stands out as a key indicator. Across the last five winners, they averaged two top-10 finishes in their previous five events, with three arriving off the back of a win. This underlines the importance of entering the tournament in strong form, especially given the all-round test posed by the Blue Monster.
Strokes gained data, although only available for the last two editions, reinforces a consistent profile. Both winners ranked 1st in approach and 7th off the tee, highlighting the critical importance of elite ball striking. In contrast, both ranked outside the top-50 in strokes gained around the green, suggesting scrambling is not a decisive factor here. While both players did finish inside the top-20 for putting, this appears secondary to strong tee-to-green performance.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Approach (Key yardages 200+)
Good Drives Gained
Bogey Avoidance
3-Putt Avoidance
Choosing the key stats for the test that the Blue Monster presents, I’ve started with strokes gained: tee-to-green. Given the strong form profile of previous winners and the calibre of players who typically contend here, this metric provides the best overall view of a player’s current performance.
Next is strokes gained: approach, which has been clearly highlighted by recent winners, both ranking 1st in this category in their winning weeks. With large, undulating greens split into distinct sections, precision with irons is critical. Missed approach shots can leave extremely difficult putts or place too much reliance on around-the-green play, which hasn’t proven to be a winning formula here.
In terms of specific yardages, I’ve focused on 200+ yards, with over 30% of approach shots historically coming from this range. This also captures the demands of the par 3s, with three of the four exceeding this distance, further reinforcing the importance of long-iron play.
For an Off-the-tee metric, I’ve opted for good drives gained. Fairways hit isn’t essential here, as long as players avoid hazards and poor positional misses (like being blocked out by trees), they can still score. This metric better reflects that balance by rewarding either finding the fairway or successfully hitting the green in regulation after the drive.
Finally, the last two metrics go hand in hand and reflect the overall difficulty of the course. The Blue Monster places a premium on limiting mistakes, where par is often a strong score. Players who can avoid dropping shots while picking up occasional birdies will put themselves in contention. Supporting this is 3-putt avoidance, given the size and complexity of the greens, strong lag putting is essential to prevent unnecessary bogeys and maintain position relative to the field.
Stats Model - Top 10
Si Woo Kim
Cameron Young
Collin Morikawa
Rickie Fowler
Kurt Kitayama
Scottie Scheffler
Hideki Matsuyama
Jake Knapp
Adam Scott
Min Woo Lee
Cadillac Championship Tips:
Gold Medal Pick: Collin Morikawa 18/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 2.5pts E/W
For my gold medal selection, I’m backing Collin Morikawa, who I’ve stayed away from since his withdrawal at The Players Championship. Since returning, he’s recorded back-to-back top-10 finishes despite not looking fully comfortable, so the hope is that another week of recovery has helped him shake off the injury.
Prior to that withdrawal, he was in excellent form with three consecutive top-10s, including a win. His season-long stats also point strongly towards him being an ideal fit for this course. He currently ranks 2nd in strokes gained: tee-to-green, 1st in approach, and 1st in good drives gained. While he isn’t among the longest hitters, his accuracy consistently puts him in the right positions to attack pins, crucial on a course like this.
He also ranks 15th in bogey avoidance, which is key given the difficulty of the layout. Although not known as an elite putter, he sits 38th in three-putt avoidance, underlining his ability to lag putt effectively. His comfort on large, undulating greens is further evidenced by gaining over +2 strokes putting recently at The Masters Tournament.
Finally, he has strong pedigree at correlating courses, with runner-up finishes at Muirfield Village and Bay Hill, and a major victory at PGA Championship when it was held at TPC Harding Park.
Silver Medal Pick: Patrick Cantlay 25/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 1.5pts E/W
In silver, I’ve gone with Patrick Cantlay, who looks to have rediscovered some of his best form in recent weeks. Across his last three starts, he’s finished inside the top-12 each time and ranks 11th in my model.
Cantlay sits 15th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and while he’s currently outside the top-50 for approach for the season, there are clear signs of improvement. He’s gained strokes on approach in each of his last three events, ranking inside the top-20 in his last two, suggesting he’s trending in the right direction. He also ranks 25th from 200+ yards and 9th in par-3 scoring, key areas given the demands of this course.
Off the tee, he ranks 11th in good drives gained, and his ability to avoid mistakes is a major strength, sitting 7th in bogey avoidance. While scrambling isn’t a primary requirement here, he still ranks 8th, showing he has the tools to recover when needed. Cantlay has been winless since the BMW Championship in 2022, but this kind of demanding, all-round test looks like an ideal opportunity for him to contend and potentially end that run.
Bronze Medal Pick: Kurt Kitayama 40/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 1pt E/W
For bronze, I’ve gone with Kurt Kitayama, whose maiden PGA Tour win came at the at Bay Hill Club in a week heavily impacted by wind. That performance showed his ability to grind it out on long, difficult layouts, which is a strong pointer for this test.
Kitayama ranks 4th in my model, sitting 20th in strokes gained: tee-to-green. He’s particularly solid in the key areas, ranking inside the top-12 for both approach (including 36th from 200+ yards) and good drives gained. He also sits 31st in driving distance, which is an added advantage on a course of this length. His ability to limit mistakes is another big plus, ranking 15th in bogey avoidance, which is crucial given how punishing this course can be.
While his recent form doesn’t immediately jump off the page, he did finish 8th last time out at the RBC Heritage. His other standout results this season include 18th at Bay Hill and a 2nd-place finish at the The Genesis Invitational, both strong indicators given they came on long, demanding tracks.
Longshot to Watch: Daniel Berger 80/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 0.5pts E/W
For my longshot this week, I’ve landed on Daniel Berger—a player who wasn’t initially on my radar until I saw the price.
Despite underwhelming performances in his last three starts, Berger was a playoff away from winning at Bay Hill Club earlier this season, which as mentioned is a strong indicator given the similar test. While he doesn’t tick every statistical box, he currently ranks 5th in strokes gained: approach on the PGA Tour and 7th in good drives gained, putting him in a great position to attack this course.
His short game has been the main issue recently, but with less emphasis on around-the-green play here, there’s a clear path for his elite ball striking to carry him into contention. If conditions do turn and the wind becomes a factor, that’s another angle in his favour given his proven ability to perform in tougher weather.
Acca of the Week: Morikawa, Cantlay & Henley Top 20 - 4.5/1 (LiveScoreBet) - Accessed through player props section.
For my acca this week, I’ve gone with two of my outright selections, Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay both to finish inside the top 20, alongside Russell Henley, who just missed out on my main card.
I’ve already covered Morikawa and Cantlay, with a key factor being their current form having both finished inside the top-12 in each of their last three starts. Henley is another player I like on difficult setups, highlighted by his win at the Arnold Palmer last year and a 3rd-place finish two starts ago at The Masters Tournament.
While Henley hasn’t been at his best with approach play this season, currently sitting just outside the top-60, he does rank 10th in good drives gained. More importantly, his short game has been exceptional, ranking 1st in scrambling and 1st in bogey avoidance. He may not generate enough chances to win outright, but his ability to limit mistakes should keep him firmly in the mix and give him a strong chance of landing a top-20 finish.
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