Lando Norris has won four the last eight Grands Prix, more than any other driver in that time
Lando Norris trails Oscar Piastri by 34 points in the drivers' standings
Recommended bet: Lando Norris to win
After a promising start to the Dutch Grand Prix weekend for Lando Norris, it could not have ended any worse as his engine expired in a cloud of smoke six laps from the end while he was chasing his McLaren team-mate and championship rival Oscar Piastri for the victory.
Norris had looked to have the edge throughout practice but was pipped to pole position at Zandvoort by Piastri by just 0.012 seconds.
In the race he could match the Australian's pace, although probably wouldn't have got past, but instead of Norris losing seven points by finishing second, Piastri was able to stretch his championship lead by 25 points.
That leaves Norris trailing by 34 points with nine races remaining, but there are reasons to think he can start closing the gap with a win in this weekend's Italian Grand Prix.
The stats
The McLaren drivers have won 12 of the first 15 races of this season.
McLaren were set for a fifth consecutive one-two finish last week before Norris' retirement.
Norris was the fastest qualifier at Monza last season.
Prediction
Norris had been recovering well from a costly error in Canada that saw him crash into and luckily not also take out Piastri.
The Briton won three of the next four races and finished a close second in Belgium to arrive at Zandvoort nine points behind Piastri in the title race.
Falling a further 25 points behind will have hurt, but in a way it could reduce the pressure on Norris and bring out the best in the Bristolian, who can now focus on his own game.
Norris started from pole position at Monza last year, before Piastri muscled his way past halfway round the first lap.
Both McLaren drivers were later outfoxed by Ferrari strategy, allowing Charles Leclerc to take the win, to the delight of the Italian fans, but the papaya cars are likely to have the fight between them again on Sunday.
It is not hard to argue that Piastri should have won last year and, having come on in leaps and bounds, he is an understandable favourite.
But that has led to Norris being available at a decent price, and he looks the value selection.
There is a lot less between the McLaren pair than it might look on paper, and while the cool, consistent Piastri deserves his championship lead, there remains a feeling that when he puts it all together, Norris still has the edge.
Reigning world champion Max Verstappen can never be counted out and his Red Bull goes well when the downforce comes off, as will be the case at the high-speed Monza circuit.
Meanwhile, Ferrari usually build a car with their main home race in mind and Leclerc took pole position two races ago in Hungary, as well as winning in Italy last season.
However, it looks a safe bet that we will witness another McLaren duel this weekend, with Norris the pick based on the prices.
