France make the trip to Reykjavik to face Iceland at Laugardalsvöllur on Monday evening (19:45 BST), aiming to maintain their stranglehold on Group I with another assured performance. Didier Deschamps' side arrive as overwhelming favourites, armed with attacking quality and a commanding head-to-head record. Iceland will be hoping a home advantage and recent upturn in form can spring a surprise.
Team form
Iceland have shown glimpses of progress under new boss Arnar Gunnlaugsson, but remain inconsistent. Two wins from their last five outings tell only part of the story, with their home form proving particularly worrying. They've lost three of their last four fixtures in Reykjavik and conceded seven goals across Gunnlaugsson's first five matches.
France, meanwhile, continue to excel, winning four of their last five matches and netting at least twice in eight of their last ten outings. Back-to-back 2-0 victories have reinforced their credentials, whilst three clean sheets in their last four games suggest Deschamps has tightened things up at the back.
Head-to-head
Les Bleus have dominated this fixture in recent years, remaining unbeaten in their last five encounters with four wins and a draw. Over those meetings, they've outscored Iceland 14-5. The last clash ended 2-1 in France's favour, with Kylian Mbappé proving the difference.
Team news
France are forced into at least one alteration, with winger Désiré Doué ruled out through injury. Hugo Ekitike is expected to deputise, joining Mbappé, Bradley Barcola, and Michael Olise in attack. Manu Koné and Aurélien Tchouaméni should anchor the midfield, whilst Ibrahima Konaté and Dayot Upamecano marshal the defence.
Iceland are likely to stick with the side that put five past Azerbaijan, with Victor Pálsson, Daníel Ingason, and Hólmar Gretarsson forming the defensive spine. Ísak Thordarson and Albert Jóhannesson will support Andri Gudjohnsen up front as they look to make life awkward for the visitors.
Key stats
France have scored in both halves in 60% of their matches, compared to Iceland's 30%
Clean sheets: France have kept them in 40% of games, Iceland in just 20%
France average 1.3 expected goals in second halves. Iceland average 1.0
Pre-match odds give France an 81.8% win probability compared to Iceland's 7.7%
Prediction
France's quality and depth should prove decisive, even if Deschamps rotates his squad. Iceland will look to sit deep and frustrate their opponents, but history and current form suggest Les Bleus have the class to find a way through. Expect France to control possession and create a steady stream of chances, keeping qualification firmly in their grasp as they set their sights on the 2026 World Cup.
Iceland may grab a consolation, but France's cutting-edge ought to see them claim all three points.
Predicted result: Iceland 1-2 France
