One of the reasons why football is s unpredictable and by extension found so interesting by so many is because it does not always reward being in control. More often than not, it actually rewards chaos instead.
Across the Premier League’s 20 teams, some are playing to slow games down and manage territory in order to minimise risk. The others are turning each of their encounters into something less monotonous.
Which is where the Chaos Index comes in.
It is a simple measure of goals scored added to goals conceded. No fancy algorithms or weighted averages here, just a calculation to see which teams are dragging games into a state of volatility and who are managing to keep things largely under control.
The league table may be the perfect indicator as to who is winning the most games but it does not dig deep enough to tell you how those games have unfolded. A handful of teams win by the barest of margins, some win by the equivalent of a coin flip.
It may not matter in a single week of the season but over time that difference will compound considerably and with that in mind, it is time to see who is at the top and bottom of the Premier League’s Chaos Index:
League Pos | Team | P | GF | GA | Chaos Index | Chaos Average |
3 | Manchester United | 33 | 58 | 45 | 103 | 3.12 |
19 | Burnley | 33 | 34 | 67 | 101 | 3.06 |
9 | Bournemouth | 33 | 50 | 50 | 100 | 3.03 |
7 | Chelsea | 34 | 53 | 45 | 98 | 2.88 |
5 | Liverpool | 33 | 54 | 43 | 97 | 2.94 |
17 | West Ham | 33 | 40 | 57 | 97 | 2.94 |
14 | Newcastle | 33 | 46 | 49 | 95 | 2.88 |
18 | Tottenham | 33 | 42 | 53 | 95 | 2.88 |
2 | Manchester City | 32 | 65 | 29 | 94 | 2.94 |
8 | Brentford | 33 | 48 | 44 | 92 | 2.79 |
15 | Leeds | 33 | 42 | 49 | 91 | 2.76 |
1 | Arsenal | 33 | 63 | 26 | 89 | 2.70 |
12 | Fulham | 33 | 43 | 46 | 89 | 2.70 |
4 | Aston Villa | 33 | 47 | 41 | 88 | 2.67 |
6 | Brighton | 34 | 48 | 39 | 87 | 2.56 |
20 | Wolves | 33 | 24 | 61 | 85 | 2.58 |
16 | Nottingham Forest | 33 | 36 | 45 | 81 | 2.45 |
10 | Everton | 33 | 40 | 39 | 79 | 2.39 |
11 | Sunderland | 33 | 36 | 40 | 76 | 2.30 |
13 | Crystal Palace | 32 | 35 | 36 | 71 | 2.22 |
Sitting at the top of the Chaos Index are Manchester United with a score of 103. Two higher than second placed Burnley with 101, the Red Devils calculating that score thanks to 58 goals and 45 conceded.
They may be top of this chaotic table but there will not be too much concern as far as Michael Carrick is concerned. With United currently sitting third in the table, it seems as if the Old Trafford outfit are dealing with chaos in the right way.
In each of their 33 league games that have been played at the time of writing, United total 3.12 goals on average but with the ability to outscore their opponents, their chaos can be labelled as entertaining rather than stressful.
Compare that to Burnley sitting in second with a Chaos Index of 101 and their picture is far more chaotic towards the bottom end of the table. The Clarets are waiting for their relegation to be confirmed and this is due to conceding nearly more than double they have scored.
Plenty of chaos in Burnley matches in this season’s Premier League, as their Chaos Average sits at 3.06 goals per game. The problem is that this three and in is far too lopsided in the opposition’s direction and this is a overriding factor in their struggles throughout the campaign.
Only three teams have a Chaos Average of more than 3.00 in this season’s edition of the Premier League and the third to clear that benchmark are Bournemouth – a side that when you look at the numbers are arguably the most chaotic of all.
With Andoni Iraola calling time on his Vitality Stadium stint at the end of May, it may be this underlying chaos that has driven him to step down. A Chaos Average of 3.03 across 33 matches. it is fair to say that Bournemouth games have been far from dull.
However, there is also a neat element of equilibrium when you look at Bournemouth’s tallies for goals scored and goals against. 50 at either end have generated a Chaos Index of 100 – the fact that they have drawn 15 of their 33 league outings should not be overlooked either.
Six more draws than Chelsea but what the Blues would even do to get a point on the board right now. Liam Rosenior’s side have lost each of their last five league outings, they have failed to score in each of those defeats.
Something which has perhaps lessened their Chaos index from an even higher level due to the goals only going in the goal at one end of the pitch. That said, they have still generated a score of 98 and although they were seemingly dealing with this state of mind, they are not dealing with it anymore.
That 98 score is one higher than both Liverpool and West Ham on 97. However, with 12 league positions between the two at present, it also highlights how a team can deal with chaos and how the other struggles with it.
The Merseyside men have scored 54 goals this season and conceded 43. An element of chaos throughout their campaign as defending champions, a positive swing when it comes to getting on the scoresheet.
The same cannot be said though for West Ham and with Nuno Espirito Santo’s men having conceded 57 goals after only scoring 40, their lack of ability to deal with chaos on the field is reflected by sitting 17th in the league.
That Chaos Index of 97 that the Hammers have recorded may be two higher than that of local rivals Tottenham but it is Spurs who are currently in the relegation zone. Last season’s Europa League winners may have scored 42 goals but that is undone by the 53 that they have conceded.
A Chaos Average of 2.88 is the same as what Newcastle have also generated as the Magpies round out the top eight when measuring clubs by the Chaos Index but what about those teams searching for the title?
In an ideal world you do not want to be at the top or the bottom of this list. If you are at the top you are likely to be scoring and conceding in equal measures and that is not a precursor to a title bid. If you are at the bottom, you are watertight at the back but also misfiring in the final third.
Which plots Manchester City in ninth and Arsenal in 12th – the sweet spot when it comes to measuring the right amount of chaos within Premier League. The former with a Chaos Index of 94, the latter situated on 89.
Both teams gunning for the title, who can handle the chaos that will unfold in the final five weeks of the season? Deal with this commodity in the best possibly way and the Premier League title will be theirs. (Data correct as of 22nd April AM)
