The Numbers Behind The England World Cup Provisional Squad

Although the Premier League season still has just over a week to go, it is time for England manager Thomas Tuchel to get down to work. The World Cup is now less than a month away and the German coach has some big decisions to make.

At the end of next week, Tuchel has to select which 26 players will be on the plane to North America and with the embarrassment of riches at his disposal, that important task is going to be far from easy.

A difficult task but one made slightly easier due to the 52-year-old having to hand a 55-man provisional squad list over to FIFA. A list that although not named publicly, can be assumed with a high degree of confidence.

The reason for this confidence is that Tuchel has already named 51 players during his England tenure. Of those 51, we know that two right backs will definitely not be included. Kyle Walker already calling time on his career, Ben White now missing out due to injury.

That gives us a working list of 49 but outside of all the players that have previously called up, there are strong reports that the trio of Danny Welbeck, Luke Shaw and Jarrad Branthwaite have also been added to Tuchel’s long list.

Up to 52 names and this means a slight amount of artistic license is required to get us over the line. With this in mind, we have opted for three ‘wild cards’ Max Dowman and Ethan Nwaneri of Arsenal plus Tottenham’s Mikey Moore who has been on loan at Rangers all season.

Fuse that altogether and there is a 55-man list that looks as follows:

When looking at the 55 players as a collective, a total of 1,168 international caps have been handed out. An average of 21 per World Cup hopeful. Captain Harry Kane unsurprisingly at the top of the list with 112 appearances, five players yet to represent the senior team.

While if we look at it from a goals scored perspective, a total of 190 goals sit within the long list. Harry Kane’s 78 equates to 41% of them. No underestimating his talent but it is a lack of obvious back up plan that may be an overriding concern before going to battle in North America.

BETWEEN THE STICKS

In terms of goalkeeper selections, six are believed to be in the 55-man squad, it is likely that three will make the final cut. Working on the basis of caps alone, then Jordan Pickford will be all but guaranteed a first-class seat on the plane with 82 appearances to his name.

The goalkeeping department has 102 caps between the six on the list, just 20 caps being shared our between the remaining five players hoping to wear an international jersey next month and of those 20, 10 have been collected by Nick Pope.

Which could lead to a personal duel between himself and Newcastle teammate Aaron Ramsdale. The latter has been Eddie Howe’s number one choice of late, Pope’s own inactivity may even see him left at the airport.

Assuming it is Pickford and Ramsdale who are England’s one and two in terms of goalkeeping duty. Dean Henderson could be the third and final selection in this department as the Palace shot stopper has played a considerable role in helping the Eagles get the Conference League final.

THE LAST LINE

Which now pushes us further up the field and those who are looking to be deployed in defence during the World Cup. If the same allocation template is used from Euro 2024, Gareth Southgate selected nine defenders.

The player with the highest number of caps is John Stones with 87. The soon to be former Manchester City defender has been beset by injuries this season, he could be the biggest exclusion of the lot.

Especially as his 87 caps make up 26% of all the defensive caps within the 55-man panel and if his experience is missing, Harry Maguire’s 66 previous international appearances will be vastly important during the upcoming tournament.

Stones and Maguire as a partnership make up 47% of all the previous defender appearances. Look past these two and it is Luke Shaw and Trent Alexander-Arnold who sit joint-third with 34 caps each – the latter’s hopes of making World Cup now surely boosted after Ben White’s injury.

Therefore, on the basis of experience and Stones perhaps missing out, the defensive element of the 26-man squad could well look like this:

If that is the case, a total of 219 caps will be winging their way to North America

IN THE MIDDLE

In this section of the park, it is important to make the distinction between midfielders and those who play in either an attacking midfielder or wide forward role. Therefore, midfielders are classed as central for the purpose of this article.

11 players looking for what could be just four squad berths and although Jordan Henderson has collected 89 caps for England, the question is whether he still has enough to offer the national team after his Premier League return with Brentford.

He has played eight times for England since 2025, so it could well see Tuchel give him the nod but with both Elliott Anderson and Adam Wharton nipping at his international heels, youth could be given the nod over experience.

Henderson’s 89 caps make up 39% of the 228 total midfield international caps on this list, Declan Rice’s 72 will surely be added to in just a few weeks’ time and if there is a younger focus in the middle, it could allow Kobbie Mainoo to book his place.

Plenty of options for Thomas Tuchel to call upon but when you look at the amount of experience outside of Henderson and Rice, there is not a great deal of it:

67 caps across nine players, six of those nine have not even made double figures in England colours. This is arguably the most open department of the 26-man World Cup squad that must soon to be made. If I had to pick I would opt for Rice, Anderson. Wharton and the versatility of Nico O’Reilly.

ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK

Now it is time to look at a particular position and one where realistically five into three just won’t go. The number 10 role for England has been an ongoing discussion and at different points of the season, candidates have seemingly made a strong case for it to be theirs.

Morgan Rogers was arguably the best 10 either side of Christmas, Morgan Gibbs-White has certainly entered himself into the conversation after a real purple patch for Nottingham Forest. The pair only have 19 England caps between them.

Rogers has 14 goal contributions (nine goals and five assists), Gibbs-White has 17 (thirteen goals and four-assists). If you were selecting the England squad on Premier League output, the Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest players would be pushing to the top of the queue.

By comparison, Cole Palmer has 10 goal contributions (nine goals and one assist), Phil Foden of Manchester City has 12 (seven goals and five assists) and Real Madrid’s Jude Bellingham has just eight in La Liga (four goals and four assists).

If you were to take the three players mentioned above, you would be taking 109 caps with you. This decision could be where Thomas Tuchel really earns his money and maybe even a World Cup winners’ medal.

PUSH THINGS FORWARD

Which leaves us with our final seven seats on the plane and these will be filled by a mixture of central and wide forwards. Harry Kane’s input already mentioned at large, which half dozen additions will also join him?

If we worked based on who flew to Germany two years ago, the super seven would look as follows:

242 caps between them, 106 goals for good measure. Of those 106, Bayern Munich forward Kane has scored 74% of them with his record-breaking tally of 78 in England colours. 28 goals left remaining, one of them scored by Ivan Toney.

The player that is arguably most at risk when it comes to missing out and especially when you consider the resurgence of Marcus Rashford at Barcelona. The La Liga winner has scored eight goals and also made seven assists for good measure.

15 goal contributions and his versatility across the front line may end up giving him the nod at the expense of former Brentford forward Toney. Were he to earn seat 26 on this World Cup flight, it is a net profit of 17 additional international goals in the England camp.

Those 18 goals for England are just two more than Danny Welbeck’s 16 and although he has never been called up by current boss Thomas Tuchel, the Brighton forward has scored 13 league goals this season,

The highest scoring English player in this season’s Premier League and with enough options out wide to choose from, maybe someone such as Jarrod Bowen is left behind. Could we soon witness a Welbeck swansong? We will have the answer to that next week.