Serie A preview: Sassuolo vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction
AC Milan will finally be back in action on Sunday evening, travelling to the Mapei Stadium to take on Sassuolo.
It has been a long break for us all, but Serie A is back and Milan will resume their season on Sunday evening. It’s not the easiest one to start the hectic run of games, though, as Sassuolo have been a bit of a thorn in their side ever since they got promoted to the top flight.
Ruben Amorim praised the Neroverdi head coach, Alberto Aquilani, during his press conference but also made it clear that his team is in a good mood. Some players have also been able to recharge their batteries over the break.
Game date: Sunday, October 11 Kick-off time: 18:00 (CEST) Venue: Mapei Stadium Referee: Francesco Fourneau (VAR: Santoro)
Team news
The international break is always a worrying time when it comes to injuries, and that was only fueled this time by the longer duration and more games. It was very ironic, therefore, that it was one of the players who remained at Milanello who got injured.
Of course, we are talking about Alexis Saelemaekers. The versatile Belgian suffered a knock to his ankle and it thus ‘lost stability’, having previously had surgery on that ankle in 2024. The next steps are still being figured out, but he will be out for at least four months.
Pietro Terracciano is also struggling with an injury, but other than that, Amorim has a full squad at his disposal. Some of them are returning from international duty with a lack of energy, understandably so, but the break wasn’t all bad. For example, Christian Pulisic remained at Milanello and got to improve his condition a lot.
Matteo Gabbia also got some minutes in his legs, playing in the friendly against Padova, while the likes of Fikayo Tomori and Omari Hutchinson were tested too. Not that any of these three are expected to start tomorrow, but it’s important to get them going ahead of a hectic schedule.
Speaking of the starting eleven, it looks like Amorim will switch to a 4-2-3-1 formation. It’s really all about how you view the matter, though, as the manager explained during his presser that it’s a case of switching between three and four at the back during the games.
Mario Gila is the key in that sense, as he will either drift out wide and act as a right-back, or take on a more central role as a third centre-back. We will likely see a bit of both during the game, but it all depends on how it shapes up.
Davide Bartesaghi will be the only change to the defence, replacing Pervis Estupinan who isn’t 100% (but still called up), while the midfield will consist of Adrien Rabiot and Luka Modric again. The second and final change will be in “attack”, with Diego Moreira starting as a left winger in the trio.
In other words, we will see Samuel Chukwueze, Pulisic and Moreira together in the attacking trio behind Goncalo Ramos. It would be fair to say that it will be an attacking-minded Milan at Mapei Stadium tomorrow, which is interesting.
Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Gila, De Winter, Pavlovic, Bartesaghi; Modric, Rabiot; Chukwueze, Pulisic, Moreira; Ramos.
Predicted bench: Bouyer, Torriani, Tomori, Gabbia, Diawara, F. Terracciano, Estupinan, Jashari, Musah, Comotto, Loftus-Cheek, Cisse, Hutchinson, Camarda.
Injuries & suspensions: Terracciano, Saelemaekers.
The opponents
Aquilani was picked up by Sassuolo in the summer after impressing with Catanzaro in Serie B. He was really unlucky not to get promoted, as Monza only won the play-offs final thanks to their initial league position. It was 2-2 on aggregate, but they prevailed anyway.
The likes of Alphadjo Cisse and Mattia Liberali were both key players for Aquilani, so his history with the club as a player isn’t the only link with Milan. Nevertheless, it certainly wasn’t a surprise that Sassuolo decided to secure his services.
On the transfer market front, the Neroverdi parted ways with their best defender last season, namely Tarik Muharemovic. He was actually linked with Milan a little, but ended up joining Leeds United for more money than the Rossoneri were willing to spend.
The striker Andrea Pinamonti also departed, joining Lazio, but Sassuolo swiftly replaced him with Sebastiano Esposito on loan. As for the centre-back, no big-money replacement was brought in, but Fedde Leysen has made the spot his after joining on loan from Union Saint-Gilloise.
All things considered, it was a decent summer as Sassuolo, above all, managed to keep most of their stars. Jay Idzes, Kristian Thorstvedt, Domenico Berardi, Armand Lauriente and so on. This means that Aquilani has a pretty good squad at his disposal.
There are no injuries to note either, at least if we exclude Ismael Kone who suffered that horror injury with Canada at the World Cup. There were some concerns about the new goalkeeper, Arijanet Muric, but it turned out to be nothing.
During his press conference today, Aquilani said that he has been happy with the performances of his team so far, but also made sure to highlight that they need to do better in both phases. With nine goals scored and conceded so far, it would be fair to say that the defence needs the most work.
In the most recent game, a howler from Muric and a penalty given away allowed Monza to clinch a 2-1 win, even if Sassuolo came close by hitting the post at the end. It was actually Monza’s first win of the season, so unlike Milan, the break perhaps came at a good time for the Aquilani’s side.
Predicted Sassuolo XI (4-3-3): Muric; Cinquegrano, Caleta-Car, Leysen, Doig; Adzic, Matic, Thorstvedt; Berardi, Esposito, Lauriente.
Predicted bench: Turati, Satalino, Van der Brempt, Odenthal, Obrador, Ghion, Lipani, Bakola, Sulemana, Skjellerup, Dominguez, Pierini, Bowie.
Injuries & suspensions: Ismael Kone.
Head to head
There have been 26 meetings between Milan and Sassuolo in the past, with the Rossoneri getting the most wins at 13. However, the Neroverdi are not far behind at eight, while five have ended in draws. A pretty even fixture, in other words.
Most fans will remember the Mapei clash in 2021-22, as Milan secured their 19th Scudetto in that game with a convincing 3-0 win. Since then, there have been seven encounters between the two sides, with two wins each and three draws. Again, it’s an even fixture.
The most recent game was also at the Mapei Stadium and Sassuolo prevailed by two goals to nil, following goals from Berardi (of course) and Lauriente. Tomori was also sent off in the first half of that one, which didn’t help.
Key stats and facts
➤ Sassuolo are unbeaten in seven of their last nine Serie A matches against Milan (W4 D3), including the three most recent (W1 D2). This is their longest unbeaten run against the Rossoneri in the competition.
➤ AC Milan lost their last Serie A away match against Sassuolo, after an eight-match unbeaten run (W6 D2). The last time the Rossoneri lost two consecutive away games against the Neroverdi in the competition was back in 2016 (three on that occasion).
➤ Sassuolo have won just one of their last 10 Serie A matches against AC Milan in the first half of the season (D3 L6): 3-1 on 28 November 2021 (a comeback victory with goals from Gianluca Scamacca and Domenico Berardi).
➤ After three wins and two draws, AC Milan could remain unbeaten in their first six Serie A games of the season for the first time since 2022/23. However, the Rossoneri could also have three draws in their first six matchdays for the first time since 2018/19.
➤ Sassuolo have won eight of their last 11 home games in Serie A (3L). Since the start of the second half of last season, only Inter (10) and Roma (nine) have recorded more home wins (eight also for Napoli).
➤ Sassuolo, along with Monza, are one of two teams to have both scored and conceded at least one goal in each of their Serie A games this season. The only times the Neroverdi have found the net in each of their first six top-flight matches of the season were in 2015/16, 2018/19, and 2020/21.
➤ Only Como (41) and Juventus (38) have attempted more shots from outside the box than Sassuolo so far this season (35). On the other hand, no team has attempted fewer long-range shots than Milan (14, like Parma).
➤ Milan is the team with the highest conversion rate in this Serie A: 15.6%, having scored 10 goals with 64 shots. On the other hand, Sassuolo have scored one goal less (nine) despite having 22 more shots (86).
➤ Domenico Berardi has scored 12 goals in 20 Serie A matches against Milan. In the entire history of the competition, only Silvio Piola (22) and Enrico Chiesa (14) have scored more goals against the Rossoneri (Antonio Di Natale, Carlo Reguzzoni and Stefano Nyers also have 12).
➤ Diego Moreira has scored three league goals for Milan in 127 minutes across three appearances. Only two players have scored four goals in their first four games for the Rossoneri in the competition in the 2000s: Mario Balotelli in 2013 and Krzysztof Piatek in 2019.
Ones to watch
Given that Amorim has highlighted a fluidity between a three-man and a four-man backline during the games, we should probably keep an extra eye on Gila. He will be the key to switching between the two, or at least that is the feeling after seeing how he played against Lecce.
Further up the pitch, Moreira is the obvious one to name after scoring in his last three league appearances. So far, he has been a fantastic super-sub but obviously, it would be good to see the same from start, and tomorrow he will have the chance.
Moving on to Sassuolo, it’s impossible not to name Berardi. The stat mentioned above says just how much of a pain he has been for Milan, and the most recent fixture was another testament to that (so he hasn’t lost it at 32 years old.
The Juventus loanee Adzic has also looked very encouraging so far, finding the back of the net three times. The most recent goal was a really nice free-kick and he has a good shot from distance too, so Milan will need to be careful.
Prediction
This is a tough one to predict given the history of the fixture, but I’ve got a feeling that Milan will be able to build on the Lecce win despite the long break. Several players are returning in great form, above all Ramos, so this could perhaps be a high-scoring affair.
Sassuolo 1-3 Milan
