Europa League: How many points Milan and Juventus need to qualify

Juventus and Milan are heading in opposite directions in the Europa League, and a new projection shows exactly how many points each will need to reach the knockout stage.

According to Corriere dello Sport, data platform Football Meets Data has calculated the likely qualification marks with four games of the league phase left.

Ten points should be enough to finish in the top 24 and reach the playoffs, with a 95% chance of qualifying. Nine points drops that to just 52.8%.

Reaching the last 16 directly will be harder. A top-eight finish with 15 points comes with only a 50.9% chance. That rises to 89.4% with 16 points and 99.6% with 17. Goal difference could also decide places for teams level on points.

Luciano Spalletti’s Juventus are already on 10 points and unbeaten after Thursday’s 2-1 win at AZ Alkmaar. Teun Koopmeiners scored against his former club, and Randal Kolo Muani added a second. Two more wins would put them on the verge of the last 16.

Milan face a much tougher task. Rúben Amorim’s side lost 2-0 at home to Ferencváros, with Lenny Joseph scoring both goals. They have just three points from four games and have dropped to 28th, outside the playoff places. They probably need at least seven points from their last four matches.