Reaching The Magical 40 Point Marker

The final international break of the season is upon us, eyes fixed on who will win the Premier League in just a few weeks. Arsenal and Manchester City in a two-horse race to see who wins the title supported by a bunch of thoroughbreds sitting behind in a bid to qualify for Europe.

Two interesting subplots that are approaching their final chapter but not an exclusive list either and if we are to fuse the themes of football and horses for a little longer, those sitting at the bottom of the Premier League table have to be considered as rather lame.

Lame enough to prop up the table as both Wolves and Burnley await for their fate to finally be sealed and although the Molineux men and the Clarets are all but certainties when it comes to suffering relegation, there is still one more team that will feel suffering two months from now.

Four clubs that are in the line of fire, all aiming to reach the mythical promised land which is 40 points. Earn that amount and this usually comes with the prize of Premier League football for another season. Anything less and things start to get rather nervy.

But just how important is the collection of 40 points? Can you get away with earning slightly less and still stay up? It is time to crunch the numbers.

A look at the last 30 seasons of the Premier League (1995/1996 to 2024/2025) would suggest that there is some margin of error:

A team that finishes 17^th has not needed 40 points to stay up since Watford earned their survival back in the 2016/17 season. The highest that a team has needed since, was Burnley’s 39 across the 2020/21 campaign.

The fact that the 40-point marker could be considered something of a fallacy bodes well for Crystal Palace who currently sit 14^th in the table with 39 points, it also offers a modicum of additional hope to the four teams that sit below.

There are seven games remaining at the time of writing, these are the teams still fighting for their lives:

Three wins for both Leeds and Nottingham Forest will more than likely see them safe at the end of the season. Asking the same of Tottenham is a tall order and this is where it will depend on what West Ham do while currently sitting 18^th.

Which in itself is another way to look at the numbers and instead of looking at it from a points earned in 17^th perspective, we can instead tilt the lens to the team that finished 18^th in each of the last 30 seasons.

Over the same period only three teams have needed 40 points or more in order to stay in the Premier League. In the 1996/97 and 1997/98 seasons both Sunderland and Bolton reached this marker and still failed to stay in the top tier.

While it makes for even more difficult reading of you are a West Ham fan. Back in the 2002/03 season the Hammers earned themselves an unwanted record. 42 points to their name after finishing 18^th – the most in that position but still not enough to avoid relegation.

Thankfully for West Ham this season their plight does not seem as difficult and especially when you look at the trend of recent years. The last two seasons of the Premier League has seen the team in 18^th not even earn as many as 30 points.

Luton and Leicester collecting just 26 and 25 in 2023/24 and 2024/25 respectively. The Foxes only nine points better off when they also finished 18^th at the end of the 2022/23 campaign. The high watermark in the last 10 years is Newcastle collecting 37 points in 18^th 10 years ago.

Across that same 10-year period, the average number of points collected by a team finishing in 18^th is 32. If this was the case for this season, it would mean Tottenham who currently sit 17^th would only need one win to beat the average.

That elusive win would take them to 33 points, enough to stay up in three of the past five seasons but there is a sense that the difficulty curve has become tougher in the Premier League’s class of 2025/26.

The concentration of points in the bottom half of the table is far more equitable than in recent seasons. Teams not having the ability to fill their boots against the likes of Southampton and Sheffield United, every single point meaning more than ever.

Which is precisely what the teams sitting between 15^th and 18^th will know as we move into the final phase of this Premier League season. West Ham may be the team in the firing line at present but they at least have some form of momentum.

Their crosstown rivals Tottenham continue to sink like a stone, their agonising slide down the table there for all to see. They may not need 40 points this season but they certainly need a few more to keep their heads above water.

The average number of points that the 17^th placed finisher has collected since the 1995/96 season is 37.8. That figure drops down to 36.9 over the past 10 seasons. If we round that up and say 37, Spurs are currently seven points off the pace.

Seven games to go, seven points to earn them to increase their chances of survival. The chances may be further increased if they decide to change manager. Regardless of the managerial situation, the relegation situation is yet to be solved. Great if you are neutral, torture if you support Tottenham.