Premier League Stats: Expected goals against and best defensive records compared

Sir Alex Ferguson famously once said “attack wins you games, defence wins you titles” – and Arsenal are taking that adage to heart under Mikel Arteta.

The Gunners conceded the fewest goals in England’s top flight as they finished first last season (27), before approaching the current campaign in a similar manner.

Arsenal’s back line has been breached just five times across eight Premier League matches, registering an impressive five clean sheets along the way.

Consecutive wins and shut-outs against Nottingham Forest (1-0) and Everton (1-0) in the previous two rounds have moved them level with Manchester City at the summit, as Arteta’s defence-first approach continues to pay dividends.

The North Londoners’ rearguard resilience cannot be questioned, then, but things aren’t always as clear as the table suggests at this early stage of the season.

With such a small sample size, there will be teams who have been fortunate to only concede a handful of goals – and others who have had luck on their side.

A clearer picture is sure to emerge over the coming months, but until then, Opta’s expected goals against (xGA) metric is a useful way of judging each team’s defensive acumen.

Though xGA cannot account for a side having particularly error-prone centre-backs, for example, it does showcase the quality and volume of chances that each club has allowed opponents to date.

So, just as we did with expected goals (xG) last week, here’s a look at how the Premier League’s expected defensive numbers compare with the actual goals conceded totals following Gameweek 8…

xGA Performance Table: Goals conceded minus expected goals against (xGA) after Gameweek 8

Bournemouth on the rise

It has been quite the week for Bournemouth supporters, who banished their early-season struggles with a trio of domestic and European triumphs.

The Cherries dispatched struggling Sunderland 2-0 during Gameweek 7, before beating AC Milan 3-0 in the Europa League last Thursday – a result that fans could only have dreamt of two decades ago.

Marco Rose’s men then followed that up with a 3-0 win over Manchester United at Old Trafford on Sunday, as they climbed to 13th in the table.

It is arguably no less than the South Coast side deserve, though, having been unfortunate to concede 13 goals in their eight games to date.

Bournemouth are the division’s biggest underperformers in a defensive sense – registering an xGA of 9.29, which is a whole 3.71 goals lower than their actual tally.

Just as former boss Andoni Iraola initially took some time to get up and running at the Vitality Stadium, things look like they may finally be clicking into gear for Rose after a slow start.

Concern for Crystal Palace

A team underperforming their expected goals against can be cause for optimism – but only if that figure also ranks impressively compared with other sides in the league.

Take Nottingham Forest, for example, who have conceded on ten occasions but only have an xGA of 8.79.

That’s potentially good news for Oliver Glasner’s outfit, because their xGA puts them second in the table for this metric, behind leaders Arsenal (6.19) and just ahead of third-place Bournemouth (9.29).

Things don’t look so rosy for his former club Crystal Palace, though.

The Eagles are one of the Premier League’s biggest underperformers for expected goals against (+3.24), but still have the division’s second-worst record with an xGA of 15.76 – and have conceded the most actual goals (19) as well.

Only Ipswich Town have a less impressive total (16.43), which may be of concern to fans of Tractor Boys, despite their respectable number of points on the board (10).

Mixed results for Brighton and Leeds

So what else can we glean from the Premier League’s current expected goals against table?

Well, there are mixed results for early-season success stories Brighton and Leeds United, with both clubs conceding notably fewer goals than their xGA suggests they should be.

Leeds are the biggest overperformers by a whopping 4.54 goals, but Brighton aren’t far behind on -4.36.

Fortunately, even taking that into account, Daniel Farke’s side and the Seagulls still sit sixth and tenth in the xGA table, respectively, which are pretty healthy positions at this stage of the campaign.

Tottenham supporters are also entitled to feel a degree of positivity after securing consecutive wins against Coventry City (3-1) and Chelsea (2-0).

They are narrowly underperforming their expected goals against figure (9.93 vs 10 actual goals) but – more significantly – sit a credible eighth in the xGA rankings.

After a torrid few months, a strong defence could be the bedrock that allows Spurs to start climbing the Premier League table in the weeks ahead.