Premier League 2026/27 top goalscorer odds and predictions: Erling Haaland, Alexander Isak and Igor Thiago's prospects assessed
James Hilsum
The Premier League returns on Friday, August 21, and the race begins for the division's top goalscorer.
Erling Haaland will undoubtedly be the man to beat after winning the golden boot three times in the past four seasons, with a host of big names eager to take his crown.
Among them is Brentford's Igor Thiago, who enjoyed a stellar first season in English football, while Alexander Isak will hope to recover after a disappointing debut campaign with Liverpool.
So, with the new season just around the corner, we took a look at where the smartest value could be had.
Erling Haaland
The prolific Manchester City frontman is unsurprisingly the huge favourite once again, as reflected by his very short odds.
The 26-year-old is a goalscoring phenomenon, holding the record for the fastest time to reach 100 Premier League goals.
He did so in his 111th appearance in the competition last season, as City triumphed in a 5-4 victory away at Fulham in December.
He also holds the record for the most goals of any player in a Premier League season in 2022/23, and few would bet against him surpassing the 30 mark again in this campaign after an netting an impressive seven goals for Norway at the 2026 World Cup.
Erling Haaland to win top goalscorer - odds @13/20
Alexander Isak
The Swedish striker is a somewhat surprising second favourite in this list after a disappointing first campaign at Liverpool, which was marred by injury and poor form.
The 26-year-old mustered just four goals in 14 top-flight appearances last season, since arriving from Newcastle United in a British record £125 million deal.
However, there are hopes that Isak can reproduce the form which convinced the Reds to part with that huge fee.
The 26-year-old scored and claimed an assist in the 3-2 friendly defeat against Monaco, and was one of the few sparks on a poor day for the hosts.
He also found the net for Sweden at the World Cup, scoring and providing two assists in the 5-1 thrashing of Tunisia, meaning he could be worth a punt at these odds.
Alexander Isak to win top goalscorer – odds @9/1
Igor Thiago
The Brazilian was a revelation for Brentford last season, scoring 22 goals and appeared in all 38 of their Premier League games.
Thiago roared back after an injury-plagued first season at the Gtech, more than justifying what was then a club-record £30 million fee for the west Londoners.
He found the net in his first pre-season game back for Brentford in a 4-2 win over Rennes, and will be the focal point of a Bees attack which took them tantalisingly close to European qualification.
If the 25-year-old picks up from where he left off, then Keith Andrews' side will surely make a strong push for the European places once again.
Igor Thiago to win top goalscorer – odds @10/1
Ollie Watkins
With Harry Kane long since departing for pastures new in Bavaria, the Aston Villa forward is the Englishman with the shortest odds in this list.
Watkins was rested for the UEFA Super Cup defeat to Paris Saint-Germain on August 12th, with Unai Emery choosing to give him a full four weeks off after the World Cup.
He finished fourth in the Premier League golden boot standings last season with 16 goals, and is only nine away from joining the prestigious 100 club.
It promises to be an intriguing season for Villa after securing a return to the UEFA Champions League, after the high-profile departures of Morgan Rogers and Youri Tielemans.
Rumours of Watkins’ potential move to Arsenal have also quietened down for now, and Villa know how key the 30-year-old will be if they are to successfully compete amongst England’s elite sides.
Ollie Watkins to win top goalscorer – odds @14/1
Joao Pedro
The Brazilian was undoubtedly the shining light for Chelsea in an otherwise turgid previous campaign at Stamford Bridge.
Had it not been for his 15 Premier League goals last season, the Blues could have easily slumped to a bottom-half finish, having only finished in the top half by virtue of goal difference alone.
The 24-year-old will also have the bit between his teeth after being a surprise omission from Brazil's World Cup squad.
Their limp last-16 exit at the hands of Norway may serve as further vindication for Pedro, who will be supported by former Villa man Rogers in an exciting new-look Blues attack.
With that in mind, his odds here to finish top of the pile look quite generous indeed.
Joao Pedro to win top goalscorer – odds @16/1
Outside contenders
Benjamin Sesko enjoyed a successful second half of last season after a slow start to life at Old Trafford and is sixth in our rankings list @20/1. Other outside bets include Viktor Gyökeres, who is also listed @20/1. The top ten is completed by Antoine Semenyo @25/1, Dominic Solanke @33/1 and Cole Palmer @40/1.
Player | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
Erling Haaland | Manchester City | 13/20 |
Alexander Isak | Liverpool | 9/1 |
Igor Thiago | Brentford | 10/1 |
Ollie Watkins | Aston Villa | 14/1 |
Joao Pedro | Chelsea | 16/1 |
Benjamin Sesko | Manchester United | 20/1 |
Viktor Gyökeres | Arsenal | 20/1 |
Antoine Semenyo | Manchester City | 25/1 |
Dominic Solanke | Tottenham Hotspur | 33/1 |
Cole Palmer | Chelsea | 40/1 |
