Can Lionel Messi reach 1000 goals before Cristiano Ronaldo? It’s not impossible…
Cristiano Ronaldo really, really wants to score 1,000 career goals. And he’s now just 20 away. But could his old foe Lionel Messi overtake him and get there first?
Whatever he might say about letting things happen naturally, Ronaldo has spent enough time discussing the landmark for us to know just how much it means to him. Messi, on the other hand, gives the impression that he couldn’t care less.
While the Portugal international frequently discusses his place in football history, Messi generally appears content to let his performances and achievements do the talking. He’s never seemed quite so fixated on hitting particular milestones.
Which raises an entertaining possibility. What if Messi, seemingly without even trying, managed to reach 1,000 goals before the man who’s spent years talking about it?
“People aren’t appreciating what I’m doing right now,” Ronaldo told CNN.
“They’re more concerned with how many goals left to reach 1,000. I don’t like that. Things have to happen naturally.
“I’m the greatest in history. Period. When it comes to scoring goals, the numbers speak for themselves.
“I’m not going to say I have to reach 1,000 goals. If I get there, fantastic.”
But what would it take for Messi to streak ahead and score his thousandth goal before Ronaldo gets there? Let’s crunch the numbers.
Messi finds currently finds himself 46 goals behind Ronaldo. On paper, that appears an unbridgeable gap – and, to be fair, it probably is.
If you compare them on a game-by-game basis, Messi would need to outscore his old rival at a rate of roughly 3.3 times to get to the milestone of a thousand goals before Ronaldo.
Strictly speaking, the required ratio is 66:20 (3.3 to one) if Messi is to get there before Ronaldo scores his 20th, assuming an equal number of matches.
Messi outscore Ronaldo by over three times? Fat chance.
…Except, here’s the thing.
Go back to the start of June, and Messi has done exactly that.
The Argentinian has scored 24 goals (plus another 12 assists for good measure) in his last 24 appearances for club and country if you go back to the start of the summer. He remains just as prolific as he ever was, had an excellent World Cup, and is currently enjoying one of his best-ever spells of form for Inter Miami.
Ronaldo, meanwhile, has scored just seven goals since the start of June. And he hasn’t assisted once. Messi has already caught up 17 goals on the 41-year-old’s total tally over the past three and a bit months.
The veteran forward appears to be finally slowing down, having drawn a blank in 10 of his last 16 appearances for club and country. In only one of those games – against Uzbekistan, in the World Cup – has he scored more than once.
Messi has done so five times over the same timeframe, including a four-goal haul against Montreal and a hat-trick against Algeria.
It’s a relatively small sample size, but if the two players continue on their current trajectories, then Ronaldo could soon find himself looking over his shoulder. If current trends continue, Ronaldo’s comfortable lead could look considerably smaller come the end of the calendar year.
There are, of course, a few caveats to be applied here. Ronaldo’s stats come from just 16 appearances, the eight fewer appearances than Messi owing to Portugal’s earlier World Cup exit and Al-Nassr’s off-season break.
Even at his slower rate of scoring, Ronaldo’s recent rate of 0.4 goals per game would require Messi to up his current rate to 1.3 goals per game to overtake him.
And that’s assuming they play the same number of games, while the calendar affords Ronaldo some extra leeway. The current MLS campaign is due to end in mid-December, by which point Messi would have a couple of months off while Ronaldo keeps playing.
It’s also worth considering that Ronaldo, even in this diminished state with question marks hanging over his Portugal future, ought to keep scoring at the relatively low level of Saudi domestic football. He’s scored four goals in seven Saudi Pro League appearances so far this season, and notched 28 in their title-winning campaign last term.
Given that, it would take either a truly extraordinary drop-off from Ronaldo or an insane goalscoring streak from Messi (we’re talking a hat-trick every game) for the race to be genuinely close, given their upcoming schedules.
Realistically, Messi’s best chance might be Ronaldo spending an extended spell on the sidelines. Even with their contrasting recent form, the Portuguese forward’s 46-goal advantage remains enormous.
But stranger things have happened. Ronaldo is slowing down, Messi is scoring for fun, and 20 goals is still a fair way off. We’re not ruling anything out just yet.
