After Kane's Ballon d'Or crowning: how did Lamine Yamal lose despite winning 64% of the votes?
A huge shock for the fans
The numbers said one thing. The hearts said another. Harry Kane walked away with the official Ballon d'Or, but Lamine Yamal claimed the people's version by a historic landslide, with the world backing him by an overwhelming 64% against just 17% for Kane.
Kane collected the 2026 Ballon d'Or on Monday, exactly as the pundits had predicted. The official result mirrored the forecasts to the letter: Mbappe second, Lamine Yamal third. That was the verdict of the panel of experts at France Football magazine. It was not the verdict of the public.
A historic landslide for the Barcelona star
According to Spanish newspaper "Sport", figures from the global betting and analytics platform "Betfair" laid bare a resounding surprise. Barcelona and Spain winger Lamine Yamal pulled in 64% of international public support, crushing every one of his rivals.
Kane, the official winner, finished second in popularity on just 17%, with Mbappe third on 6%. Put another way, Lamine alone drew more than three times the backing of Kane and Mbappe combined, the two men who had beaten him in the official vote.
What Yamal pulled off was close to miraculous. He alone outscored every other candidate put together, the rest sharing just 36% between them while he banked 64%, almost double.
Not just a vote: conviction and investment
Why do these figures carry such weight? Because they are not simply an emotional vote. Betfair users do not merely pick their favourite candidate, they invest their money and resources on the result they want to see land. This is no hunch. It is a firm conviction that their chosen outcome will come to pass. And the international public was utterly convinced that Lamine deserved his first award as the world's best player.
The top seven candidates accounted for 96% of the trading volume. Others such as Olise, Bellingham and Kvaratskhelia drew less than 1%.
Kane the king of analysis, Lamine the king of hearts
The data throws up another astonishing paradox. Harry Kane ruled Betfair's winning-probability system for almost the entire season, standing as favourite in 12 of the 15 moments analysed between March and the awards ceremony.
Lamine, by contrast, topped the pile only twice: in March and on 6 October with 34.71%. Mbappe managed it just once, at the start of July during the World Cup.
Kane's average support across the year reached 25.7%, against 15.13% for Lamine and 9.38% for Mbappe. Yet the gulf between the analysis and public opinion was starkest with Lamine. His average probability of winning sat at only 15.13%, but he secured 64% of popular support, more than four times as much.
The conclusion writes itself. Kane mastered the language of analysis, statistics and titles. Lamine owned the language of emotion and dazzle. The public never bought Kane's effective but less thrilling game, preferring the electric style of the young Spanish winger and crowning him the world's best player in their hearts, even as the official panel withheld the trophy.
