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The one statistic that suggests Southampton will miss out on automatic promotion

The one statistic that suggests Southampton will miss out on automatic promotion

Paul Blake
Saints Marching
Paul Blake

Southampton have collected just seven points from six away days this season. In stark contrast, at St Mary's they have dropped two points all year, with a goalless afternoon against Bolton Wanderers being the only blemish.

Spot the difference!

The difference between Saints' home and away form is concerning for a team hoping for automatic promotion. Middlesbrough lead on 25, Swansea sit second on 23, and Saints are on 20, even with the four-point deduction. But home form alone will not bridge the gap, because a five-point gap to the leaders could widen with every poor result on the road.

Away FixtureDateResult
Watford16th August1-2
Birmingham City1st September1-1
Lincoln City5th September1-1
Wrexham19th September1-2
Norwich City14th October1-0
West Ham United24th October3-2

Two draws and two defeats was all that Eckert's side could take from the opening four away trips. Then came Norwich City, where Kuryu Matsuki scored the only goal, and the London Stadium, where the Japanese international scored again within two minutes, and Saints led 3-1 at half-time.

Daniel Peretz made eleven saves to secure the win, so the 3-2 victory was much tighter than three first-half goals suggest.

Southampton will have to do much better as they travel north for their next two away fixtures.

Southampton need to sharpen up against the Baggies and the Blades

Two good away days do not erase four away games that returned only two points, and no fan will pretend otherwise. The club has tickets on sale for both Sheffield United and Preston North End in November, after the Saints travel to the Hawthorns on Tuesday the 3rd.

Preston are bottom on five points. Dropping points there, in a game a promotion side is expected to win, would be little short of a catastrophe.

Swansea give Saints a reason to stay hopeful, because they lost twice in their most recent two league games and sit only three clear. A single decent away result closes a lot of that gap, and a poor one hands it straight back.

Saints Marching have argued the squad looks built for automatic promotion because of how it deals with sides in the play-off places, and the West Ham result backs that up. The difference in Saints' home and away form, though, may be this side's Achilles' heel.

Southampton fans have plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Their side's goals-against column is joint-best in the division, and a team that badly needed a result at West Ham just went and got one.

Away from St Mary's, though, the job is only half done. The top two stays viable if the Preston and Sheffield United trips yield more than the road has given so far. It fades if they provide another Watford or Wrexham horror show.

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The one statistic that suggests Southampton will miss out on automatic promotion