Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca predictions: Quiet night for keepers at Selhurst Park
Simon Barlow
Five of Palace's eight Conference League games saw fewer than nine shots on target
Larnaca had just two shots on target to Palace's one in their October meeting
Recommended Bet: Under 8.5 total shots on target
Crystal Palace welcome AEK Larnaca to Selhurst Park on Thursday in the first leg of their Europa Conference League last‑16 tie, with Oliver Glasner's side aiming to avenge October's frustrating 1‑0 home defeat.
That night the Eagles dominated long spells but were undone by a defensive lapse, allowing Imanol Idiakez's men to escape south London with a dogged victory.
Palace struck the woodwork, missed several clear chances and were repeatedly denied by visiting goalkeeper Zlatan Alomerovic, who produced one of the standout displays of the league phase.
Results have improved amid a run of three wins in their last four, but the Eagles' lack of ruthlessness in front of goal could be an issue against the club with the best defensive record in the competition.
Larnaca conceded only once in finishing eighth in the league phase and the Cypriot Cup winners arrive in London buoyed by a 3-0 league win over Chloraka.
The latest Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca odds are available on LiveScore Bet
Team news
Palace had no match last weekend and are expected to field a strong XI, with Jorgen Strand Larsen leading the forward line and Adam Wharton anchoring the midfield.
Maxence Lacroix should be reinstated to the line-up after missing the Eagles' 3-1 win at Tottenham earlier this month through suspension.
Top scorer Jean-Philippe Mateta is expected to return to the squad for the first time since a 3-1 league loss to Chelsea in late January.
AEK travel to England without veteran defender Valentin Roberge, who played a key role in their victory last October, but with a new coach in the dugout.
Xavi Rothada takes charge of the team for the first time after replacing Idiakez, who resigned after Larnaca's 1-1 draw with Olympiakos Nicosia earlier this month.
Forwards Waldo Rubio and Youssef Amyn are also missing, while midfielders Jimmy Suarez and Giorgos Naoum will also sit this one out.
The stats
Five of Palace's last seven home matches have featured fewer than three total goals, while five of AEK's six Conference League games have also produced two goals or fewer.
Only three shots on target were recorded in October's meeting at Selhurst Park.
Larnaca conceded just one goal in the entire league phase.
Palace have kept back‑to‑back home clean sheets.
The latest Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca odds are available on LiveScore Bet
Prediction
This is unlikely to be a free‑flowing contest because it is not in the visitors' interests to open the game up at Selhurst Park.
They sat deep and strung five across the back when they made the trip to London in October and successfully ground out a win.
Palace are likely to face a similar approach from the Cypriot side and will need their creative players to produce some defence-splitting passes.
However, the Eagles have lacked a clinical edge of late and cannot be totally trusted to deliver the resounding win that their pre-match odds indicate should happen.
The hosts should dominate the shot count, but the visitors are unlikely to venture forward much themselves, potentially leading to another match with fewer than nine efforts on target.
Back Under 8.5 total shots on target at 9/10 with LiveScore Bet
