Chelsea and Liverpool want Alex Scott - but is he really worth £100m?

Bournemouth have put a £100 million price tag on midfielder Alex Scott amid reported interest from Chelsea and Liverpool – but is the 23-year-old really worth that much?

Scott has been attracting interest from the biggest clubs in the world for several months. Rumours have linked the former Bristol City midfielder to the likes of Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Real Madrid, making him one of the hottest properties on the transfer market.

Bournemouth’s response has been to give the 23-year-old an asking price of £100m (€119m), according to Football Insider, but how much is Scott really worth?

Why Bournemouth can set a high price for Alex Scott

Scott’s Estimated Transfer Value (ETV) currently sits at £47m (€55.8m). This is less than half the price Bournemouth are asking for, so why can the Cherries make such a big demand?

Firstly, the value in the England player is not necessarily in what he is now, but what he could become in the years ahead.

Furthermore, the Cherries have watched other Premier League midfielders leave for similar sums of money.

Sandro Tonali and Mateus Fernandes, for example, moved from Newcastle and West Ham respectively to Tottenham this summer for deals around the £90m mark. Enzo Fernandez, meanwhile, joined Manchester City from Chelsea in a move worth £125m.

According to data analytics experts SciSports, Scott is of a similar standard to these players and, crucially, has the capacity to become even better.

Alex Scott belongs to an elite group of midfielders

This data also underpins what a comparatively rare commodity Scott is on the transfer market currently.

SciSports gives each player a SciSkill rating based on hundreds of in-game data points. The higher this figure is, the better the player is. It also provides a potential estimate for how good a player can become.

There are only 20 central midfielders who have a current SciSkill of over 98 and a potential SciSkill of over 115. Scott is one of this elite group.

But his attraction can be whittled down further. Let’s remove players already at major clubs who are unlikely to be sold:

Warren Zaire-Emery (PSG)

Gavi (Barcelona)

Pedri (Barcelona)

Kobbie Mainoo (Man Utd)

Elliot Anderson (Man City)

Ryan Gravenberch (Liverpool)

Phil Foden (Man City)

Carlos Baleba (Man Utd)

Declan Rice (Arsenal)

Martin Odegaard (Arsenal)

Bernardo Silva (Real Madrid)

Moises Caicedo (Chelsea)

We’re now left with eight players who fit the bill as being central midfielders with solid current ability and high potential.

The current trend among England’s leading clubs is to prioritise Premier League experience. Nicolo Barella at 29 is highly unlikely to make a leap to a big English side, and while Como’s Maximo Perrone should not be totally discounted, he offers fewer guarantees than Scott.

An exception here is Eduardo Camavinga at Real Madrid, whose experience at the top level of European and international football allows him to join a list of just six players:

Of this group, only Ayari and Yarmolyuk are box-to-box players like Scott in their style, underlining the uniqueness of his profile.

Would Scott really be worth £100m at his peak?

Let’s assume Scott were to reach his top-end potential of 119.9, would he then be worth the £100m that Bournemouth want?

The evidence is mixed. Currently, there are only six central or defensive midfielders around that bracket. None of these players have an ETV in excess of £100m, including Pedri, who is the same age as Scott, and Rice.

Indeed, the average ETV of these six players stands at £62.8m (€74.6m).

£100m looks excessive based on Scott's current ETV and even his projected potential, but the market could push his eventual price well beyond his data-driven valuation.

Demand for the England midfielder is high among clubs while the group of players like him is vanishingly small.

This, combined with the new fashion of Premier League clubs to sign from within the league at a premium price, could force Scott’s value up, though even in these circumstances, Bournemouth will do well to get £80-90m for their ace.