The Bayern Insider: Lennart Karl future depends on Michael Olise decision
Welcome to today’s exclusive & comprehensive round-up of all things Bayern Munich from Bayern insider Christian Falk. Featuring updates on Harry Kane, Michael Olise, Lennart Karl, and Aleksandar Pavlović.
Today’s top stories
Do Bayern Munich have to worry about Aleksandar Pavlović and the Premier League?
What’s the latest state of play with Harry Kane’s contract talks?
Does Michael Olise have a say in Lennart Karl’s FC Bayern future?
And plenty more on Luka Vušković, Phil Foden, Nick Pope & Jules Koundé
Michael Olise’s excellent form during the international break with the French national team is also good news for Germany! We have Harry Kane, Michael Olise and a few German players who are also doing very well, and don’t forget about Luis Diaz when the Colombian is back at his best again. You can see, next to Real Madrid, that FC Bayern can really count on one of the best forward lines in world football, which is a great sign for the club’s Champions League campaign this year. We’re very proud to have stars of such a calibre here in Munich.
Harry Kane and Bayern Munich closing in on new contract
It is TRUE: Harry Kane’s contract talks with Bayern Munich are moving forward. It’s very positive at the moment. We mentioned previously that there were some productive talks before the international break. I’ve heard that these have been going on since, with the two parties discussing numbers and the contract. I’ve been getting positive vibes from both sides. Nobody thinks things will fall apart; it’s simply a question of when, not if, it will all work out. I think things could move very quickly with Kane returning to Bayern. But, of course, they’re happy to take their time, as no one thinks either party will make a surprise move in negotiations. It will normally be a contract until 2029. There are some ideas about the option of an additional year. In the last column, we mentioned a potential exit clause being included in the contract. But at the moment, I think there’s no question that the future of Harry Kane is very much at Bayern Munich.
Michael Olise can influence Lennart Karl’s Bayern future
These two players’ futures are very much connected. I’ve talked with a few people at the club on the subject of Lennart Karl, and the situation is that there are currently no contract talks with the 18-year-old. Everyone is waiting to see what is happening with Michael Olise. They’ve given the Frenchman time until next summer to offer a sign in terms of his intentions. Of course, FC Bayern would be very happy to get a heads-up on this front much earlier! But as things currently stand, nobody knows what the France international will do. They do know the negotiations will be challenging, and this is why everyone is now looking at Karl. Bayern have a big talent in the teenager who could end up being the successor of Olise – certainly so if the former Crystal Palace star decides to leave in the summer. In that case, Bayern would buy another player for the position, but it would mean a different scenario for Lennart Karl in which he’d be potentially competing for more minutes.
That said, if Michael Olise signs a new contract, you have to be playing the 24-year-old. If the right winger signs a new contract, he’ll almost certainly be made a top earner (at around €25m [£21.1m] gross per year) in Munich alongside Harry Kane and Jamal Musiala. In this case, Karl has to give serious thought to the question of whether he also wants to commit to a new contract, given that Musiala and Olise are both considered starters ahead of him. You could forgive the German for thinking, “Well, where is my place in the team?” So, this could invite questions around a potential departure. We know Real Madrid are interested, but perhaps the Premier League could appeal. Alternatively, if it becomes increasingly clear that Olise will leave, then Bayern have to give Karl a new contract, which will likely put the teenager in the middle of the club’s wage bill (minimum €8m [£6.7m], perhaps even €10m [£8.4m]). His current terms, it should be noted, see him on about €2m [£1.6m].
But there could also be the idea at Bayern Munich to offer Lennart Karl a contract in the immediate short-term future. This could be cheaper than waiting for an answer from Michael Olise, which could very well be a “no”. This then ensures the club has a backup option available in the team for the future. If Karl then decides to leave Bayern, he has a market value that is protected by his new long-term contract. So, three clear scenarios there. Now, everyone is paying close attention to what the young forward and his senior Bayern teammate will do.
Aleksandar Pavlović keeps on impressing
First of all, I’m very happy – it was our exclusive that revealed Manchester City had come in with an offer for Aleksandar Pavlović back in March. Despite the interest, I know that there’s no idea within the Pavlović camp of leaving Bayern Munich; he wants a big future with the Bundesliga champions, and he’s a big fan of the club (naturally, as you might expect of a player born in Munich). That’s great for Bayern Munich to have such players at the club.
We should also thank Jürgen Klopp for giving him opportunities in the last two matches with the German national side. He played really well and was the best player in the second squad. For context, Klopp had created two squads to handle two games each. Joshua Kimmich was in the first squad, with Pavlović selected for the second. Kimmich had initially hoped to be involved in all four games, given his status as the national captain, but Klopp was firm on wanting to see the young players in action without the Bayern veteran on the pitch. Now, everyone is asking whether, in a Jürgen Klopp system, it would be better to have a more defensively minded midfielder like Pavlović instead of Kimmich. This is a big debate in Germany.
Of course, some may wonder why Germany can’t just make it work with both players, given they play together at Bayern Munich. But Germany and Bayern use different systems, which creates different pressures and conundrums. For instance, Klopp uses just one six in the midfield instead of the two Vincent Kompany favours at Bayern. So, you can see why some are wondering whether or not Joshua Kimmich’s days are numbered in the national team. I don’t think so, because he’s far too good a footballer not to be involved in the national team, but it is a tactical question – and a difficult one for Jürgen Klopp.
JJ Gabriel has turned 16… what next?
JJ Gabriel has, indeed, turned 16, so the negotiations will now start. PSG made the next move, pushing to have talks with his representatives at Epic Sports (Ali Barat’s agency). However, I get a feeling that the Spanish clubs, specifically Real Madrid and Barcelona, are ahead at the front of the queue. Of course, there’s still the big argument in favour of Bayern Munich. You can see that many young players are getting minutes and opportunities under Vincent Kompany. To be clear, Gabriel’s agents are aware of this, so FC Bayern still have a chance, even if they’re not pushing hard at this point in time. They’re watching what the others are doing. But they are still in the group of four clubs that are involved in the transfer poker for this teenager. I think JJ Gabriel will become a great player. However, when you’re talking about Lennart Karl and Jamal Musiala, you can see it’s not so easy as well for a new player coming into the mix – there is competition! Still, I hope Bayern Munich can get firmly involved in this deal. At the moment, they’re not frontrunners.
Bayern and Europe are keeping an eye on Luka Vušković
It is TRUE: Bayern Munich are among the clubs keeping an eye on Luka Vušković’s development at Brighton. Both sides have a history; Vušković was offered to FC Bayern before he made the step to the Premier League. Bayern didn’t have the space or the money to make a serious push for the Croatian at that point in time. Of course, he’s young and has plenty of time to develop further, so it’s natural he’d still be on the list. As I say, almost in every column, if they sell Min-jae Kim or Hiroki Ito, there will be a place and the money available to sign a new defender. In that scenario, Luka Vušković is absolutely an interesting player for Bayern Munich, as he’s already shown his capabilities in the Bundesliga during an impressive loan spell with Hamburg. There is also interest from the footballer in playing for Bayern. So, a good sign from both sides for potential future talks. But at the moment, Bayern Munich are not in a situation where they can make an offer. Nonetheless, they’re keeping the centre-back on the shortlist and are continuing to track his development.
Could Bayern move for Phil Foden if he became available?
I can’t say it’s true that Bayern Munich’s reported interest in Phil Foden is particularly concrete. However, because Vincent Kompany knows this player very well from his time at Manchester City (and it would be potentially great to add him to Bayern’s squad), I can’t also firmly rule out the possibility. On the other hand, the Englishman would be very expensive! Bayern already have Luis Diaz on the pitch, and while he’s not an expensive player, he’s not cheap either. So, you have to ask where exactly Foden would play if he were a Bayern star. Bayern Munich is searching to bolster the left wing position, and I think something could happen in the January transfer window if there is a player available on the market who isn’t so expensive. Ideally, a young player. I wouldn’t say no to Phil Foden if he were on the market and affordable. But at the moment, it’s not hot. Let’s call this a “semi-true” story!
Nick Pope is not on Bayern Munich’s goalkeeper shortlist
It is NOT TRUE: Newcastle goalkeeper Nick Pope is on Bayern’s list. There was a meeting during the international break at Bayern Munich, and they discussed many names – including Pope’s. However, while the Englishman was on the list, he’s now no longer really considered an option. As we’ve previously discussed on Bayern Insider, there is interest in Finn Dahmen, interest in Bernd Leno, and interest in Marvin Schwäbe. And you can see that these goalkeepers are all German. The first idea would be to get a German goalkeeper in, as historically, it has worked for FC Bayern. Of course, Jordan Pickford (who we mentioned last week) and Nick Pope are both goalkeepers who would make sense, but Bayern are currently prioritising German goalkeepers. Where you may have some problems is that, as in the case of Dahmen, he’s the No.1 goalkeeper at FC Augsburg. So you have to see if he would be prepared to be the No.2 at Bayern. He’s not saying “no” at the moment. Baumann, the former German No.1 during the World Cup qualifiers, wants to set the record for the most Bundesliga appearances, so he’s not an option at the moment. For Leno, it could be an option for him to return to Germany. He’s a bit older than the other candidates, so it could be interesting. Whomever it is, Bayern needs a player who is willing to accept that Jonas Urbig is the No.1. It’s not so easy to find a player like that who is simultaneously a very good goalkeeper, which is why Bayern have a long list.
Could Kenan Yildiz return to FC Bayern?
It is TRUE: Kenan Yildiz is on the list of many teams in Europe. He’s a big talent and I think that Bayern Munich made a mistake in allowing the player to leave on a free transfer. But now, it’s too late for FC Bayern. If they got him back at the club, they would be admitting to having made a mistake, and it would also mean paying a lot of money to correct this error. It’s not very hot at the minute, but the agents are close to the club, so it’s always a discussion in terms of whether this is a viable option. If other clubs, like Real Madrid, come in and are prepared to pay big money, then Bayern Munich are out of the poker. It is interesting that Yildiz used to be a Bayern youth player and could have ended up providing backup to Harry Kane had he stayed put in Munich. Of course, football doesn’t always work out in the dream scenario. And in this case, Bayern Munich are not in the driver’s seat.
Jules Kounde is still a name Bayern like
It is TRUE: Jules Koundé is on the list at Bayern Munich. Like Vušković, the Frenchman is on a list. There was always contact with his camp, but no concrete offer last summer. They know that Bayern Munich are interested in him. Koundé was really concrete a few years ago. If he’s on the market, he can become concrete quickly once again, as Bayern are still searching for right-backs. In my view, Givairo Read is still ahead on this list. As everyone knows, Bayern Munich have to sell some players. Sacha Boey’s salary is still on the wage bill, and Bayern have tried very hard to part ways with him. He has no chance to play and is rarely part of the matchday squad, so they will try once again to sell him in the winter. If they’re successful in this mission, FC Bayern will be in the market for a new right-back. Bayern Munich have shared signs with right-backs and their agents that they’re still in the hunt for a new fullback and that these linked players are still on the list. That’s why we’re seeing fresh rumours around players like Jules Koundé.
Min-jae Kim and Tomás Araújo’s situation
Bayern Munich have a problem, if you can call it that: they have two really good starting centre-backs in Jonathan Tah and Dayot Upamecano. But you see that Min-jae Kim is doing very well this season as a rotational option. In fact, he’s considered another number one option for the starting-XI. As Bayern Munich know, the wage bill is looking quite high. Kim first arrived as the best player in Serie A at the time, as was made clear by the expensive price tag. If you want to have ideas for the future, you have to sell players who carry a significant market value, and ultimately Kim is a player who carries such a market value. You see that clubs like AC Milan are still interested. It wasn’t as concrete as some reports from Italy indicated, but Milan did have an idea in the summer to try and sign the South Korean international.
Bayern Munich are fully aware that Min-jae Kim has a high salary and a high price on the market. Every season, you have to change something in the squad to keep competitive. This is why we’re having this discussion. However, I’m aware that talks have been planned in the Autumn with Min-jae Kim’s camp. There will be talks about the future and so we will see exactly what Bayern Munich are thinking and what they’re offering. In the end, perhaps it could be to establish that if genuine interest arrives, he could be sold. But it could also just as well be that Vincent Kompany is so happy with Kim he’ll get a new contract.
