Harry Kane and Luis Diaz looked like different players: Bayern Munich’s unlikely blunder despite a new best mark

30 shots and a season-best xG figure: Bayern Munich were held to a 2-2 draw by Augsburg mainly because of their own finishing - and the offside rule.

"Do we now want to go through together all the goalscoring chances we had?" asked sporting director Max Eberl in his analysis of this wild game in the mixed zone. It would have been a long evening. But before any of the reporters present could agree, Eberl dropped the idea and simply said: "I'm not a huge fan of expected goals. But I read we had five-point-something. Then you can create as many goalscoring chances as you like if you don't score them."

Of course, Bayern Munich also stumbled against FC Augsburg because of Manuel Neuer. His big mistake led to the 1-0 after eight seconds, the fastest goal in Bundesliga history. Neuer was unfortunate again for Rodrigo Ribeiro's interim 2-1, just like the entire back line. More than anything, though, Bayern slipped up because of their ruthless wastefulness in front of goal.

Bayern Munich finished with an xG figure of 5.13 against Augsburg. It was comfortably their best return of what is still a young season, even one already packed with goals for Bayern Munich. In the 7-0 against Union Berlin just before the international break, for example, Munich had reached "only" 3.71.

According to the data portal Statmuse that figure against Augsburg is even Bayern Munich's eighth-highest in the Bundesliga since data collection began in the 2021/22 season. The xG record in that period came in an 8-1 win against FSV Mainz 05 in 2024 and stands at 6.57. In all seven matches with a higher xG value than the one Bayern recorded against Augsburg, Munich scored at least four goals.

Luis Diaz and Serge Gnabry each scored two offside goals

One thing should not be forgotten: the 5.13 xG Bayern created in Augsburg does not even include the four goals Luis Diaz and Serge Gnabry had ruled out for offside in total, two each. Otherwise Munich would probably have set a new record. Three of the four disallowed goals were undisputed. Luis Diaz's first goal, a spectacular overhead kick, should actually have stood not only in Eberl's view.

Josip Stanisic had been offside in the build-up, but the goal then came from a new phase of play. Referee Sven Jablonski initially gave the goal, but after a VAR intervention he ruled it out. "It was very good that VAR was in use. Otherwise we would have lost 6-2," said Augsburg's Robin Fellhauer with a sly grin, but was fundamentally critical of VAR.

Curiously, despite Diaz putting the ball in the net twice, the official statistics left him with zero shots and therefore an xG value of 0. In principle, that means a kind of improvement in his case. In the weeks before the international break, Diaz had squandered a string of top chances. This time he had a 100 per cent conversion rate. Now he just needs it to happen within the rules, or for the referee to go along with it.

How badly Diaz is craving a positive moment was clear from his exuberant celebration after his supposed 1-1 equaliser, which was eventually ruled out. "It simply would have done him good if the goal had counted," said Eberl, who after Diaz's recovery break during the international period, when he opted out of the matches with Colombia, sees him overall as "absolutely on the up".

Harry Kane turns into a wasteful finisher against FC Augsburg

As for finishing, it was surprisingly Harry Kane who stood out most for the wrong reasons in Augsburg. The Englishman, who before and during the international break and really at all times had been so clinical, suddenly looked like a wasteful finisher, in a sense taking over Diaz's role. Kane missed three big chances and failed with eight efforts. The most dangerous of them hit the crossbar shortly before the break. Kane alone posted an xG figure of 1.55.

Behind him came Ismael Saibari with the second-most shots, six. At least he scored the interim 1-1, while Nathaniel Brown grabbed the late 2-2, both from Kane assists. Overall, Munich had 30 shots against Augsburg.

For Eberl, the sheer number of chances created was also the big difference from Bayern's first slip-up of the season, the 0-0 against FC Schalke 04 on matchday two. "Unlike at Schalke, we found a lot more solutions," said the sporting director. Back then, Munich managed an xG value of just 1.94.

Kimmich, meanwhile, did not put the flood of chances down solely to Bayern Munich's attacking strength. "Generally, I was actually surprised that we got so many goalscoring chances," he said. "To be honest, I didn't think Augsburg defended outstandingly well at all."

Bayern Munich: The xG figures in the season's matches so far