A Case For The Defence

Although attacking numbers often dominate the conversation within football, it is not always a case of what you do with the ball that gets you over the line. Goals may win you matches but clean sheets will win you league titles more often than not.

Across any league format, the table is ultimately shaped not just by what teams can do with the ball but also by what happens when they are not in possession. Some sides can outscore their problems, others cannot escape them and the best are built on a platform of defensive control.

Which is where the real story of the 2025/26 Premier League season starts to come to light. Is there a correlation between keeping clean sheets at the top of the table and conceding too many goals at the bottom? Let’s see what the data tells us below:

(Defensive Rank – lowest to highest Goals Against Per Game “GAPG”)

It makes good reading if you are an Arsenal supporter as not only are the Gunners sitting at the top of the Premier League table at the time writing but they also have the meanest defence in the division to go alongside it.

The Gunners average just 0.76 goals against per game. 0.12 goals less than Manchester City in second. Life imitates art in this instance as the Etihad outfit find themselves ranked second when it comes to both their defensive and league rankings.

At this stage, we can see that there is a positive correlation between league position and defensive ability and if the hypothesis ran true throughout each of the 20 clubs in the table, there would be an exact match across the two metrics.

However, we only need to look at the third team in the defensive rankings to see the correlation drift apart and although Brighton find themselves sitting sixth in the Premier League table, they are actually third when looking at their defence.

The Seagulls have conceded 39 goals across 34 league matches at an average of 1.15 goals against per game. Their defensive record giving them a profit of three positions when comparing defensive to league rankings.

A positive story for Brighton when looking at their backline, even more so when looking at their local rivals Crystal Palace. Like their East Sussex counterparts, they have also conceded 39 goals but they have done so having played one game fewer.

Their 33 league outings equate to conceding 1.18 goals against on average per game and although they are fourth defensively, they are only 13^th in the Premier League table – nine places better off when looking at their goals conceded.

This suggests that although the Eagles have a rather tight backline, their output at the other end has let them down. The same number of goals conceded than Brighton but seven league places further back – the disconnect at Selhurst Park sits higher up the pitch.

The same can be said for Everton and if you were ranking the Premier League table from a purely defensive lens, the Toffees would be flying high in fifth and having every right to dream of being in the Champions League next season.

However, David Moyes’ men only find themselves sitting 11^th in the table right now. They may have only conceded 1.21 goals against per game on average but it looks as if the Everton defence is doing a lot of the heavy lifting this season.

The three clubs between third and fifth all showing some form of profit defensively, the next two clubs actually worse off than their league position and this highlights how an effective attacking setup can often get you out of the hole you find yourself in.

Take Aston Villa for example, defensively they are sixth in the rankings but actually find themselves sitting fifth in the Premier League table. Unai Emery’s men concede 1.24 goals against per game but manage to score 1.38 at the other end.

A slight variance between the two, but one that is working in Villa’s favour at present. There will not be many complaints if Villa Park is playing the Champions League anthem next season but the defence may still be an area that manager Emery will want to improve over the summer.

While there is a big question over who will be the Liverpool manager over the summer and although Arne Slot looks likely to be in charge for the 2026/27 campaign, there is still the looming prospect of Xabi Alonso taking his place.

A lot will depend on whether Liverpool can punch their ticket to the Champions League. That said, if it was decided by how a team defends in the Premier League, the Merseyside men would be denied a return to European football’s elite.

They may be sitting fourth in the Premier League table at the time of writing, they sit seventh when it comes to defensive matters. Arne Slot’s men have conceded an average of 1.29 goals against per game, thankfully they have scored 1.67 per game to avoid this becoming a greater issue.

After a mixed pattern from the clubs in third to seventh we then restore parity when comparing defensive and league rankings. Not that Chelsea will be too pleased in currently sitting eighth, they do so after averaging 1.32 goals against per game.

The same value that both Nottingham Forest and Sunderland have shipped across 34 matches and it is their defences that is keeping their heads above water when it comes to the battle to avoid the drop.

For the Black Cats, they find themselves three places better off defensively than in the Premier League table comparing positions nine to twelve. For Forest, it is their relative compactness at the back which could prove all the difference at the end of next month.

Vitor Pereira’s men may be 16^th in the Premier League table as things stand, but defensively the City Ground outfit find themselves sitting six places better off. More importantly, their 1.32 goals against per game is far better than any of the teams that are currently in the bottom four.

The bottom four of the Premier League, all find themselves in the bottom four when it comes to defensive rankings. It may not be a direct match between the two metrics but we can certainly see a strong correlation between poor defending and low league positions.

Whereas there is an element of disruption when comparing teams at the top of the Premier League table, there is very little noise by comparison when looking at the sides that have either already been relegated or are agonisingly close to the drop.

Whereas Nottingham Forest are conceding 1.32 goals a game, stricken Tottenham are conceding 1.56 goals by comparison. They have the fourth-worst defence in the Premier League; they currently sit third bottom of the table.

Which is something of a quirk when compared to West Ham. They have scored fewer goals than Tottenham and concede more per game on average. The Hammers ship 1.71 goals against per game, but their ability to grind out late winners such as last weekend’s win over Everton is the difference.

A difference of 0.11 goals fewer per game than Burnley who sit second bottom in both rankings and now that relegation has been confirmed, the Turf Moor outfit have also confirmed the departure of manager Scott Parker.

The former Fulham and Bournemouth boss not given another attempt at Championship promotion but something that will be afforded to Wolves boss Rob Edwards. His Molineux men side have conceded 2.00 goals per game on average. A metric that needs to improve in the second tier.

Which means that across the league, defensive ranking shows a strong correlation with final position but the exceptions to that are ultimately what define the story of each season – a season that is now approaching its final chapter.