Tonight, the 2025-26 Division I Men's College Basketball season concludes with the National Championship game between the number-one-seeded Michigan Wolverines and the second-seeded UConn Huskies. Either the Wolverines will win their first basketball championship in 37 years, or the Huskies will become the next great dynasty with their third title since the start of 2023.

Earlier on Saturday evening, UConn downed the Illinois Fighting Illini 71-62. That was the Huskies' 18th NCAA Tournament victory since head coach Dan Hurley took over as the program’s leader in 2018.

“There's no better feeling than being on that bus on Monday night, just being one of the last two standing,” Hurley told reporters after the win. “That bus ride to the stadium is just a cool experience… I just couldn't be more proud of my guys and how hard they fought when most people probably didn't think we were going to win the game, or at least a little bit of what I saw on TV today.”

The Huskies played cleanly, finishing the contest with just four turnovers. In fact, UConn didn't record its first turnover until early in the second half. That level of care was a huge reason why the Huskies won the game.

“Just our decision-making, being confident in what move we're going to do. If we're going to take a shot, take a shot, [and] not getting caught in between,” explained junior guard Silas Demary Jr. “And I think more so erring on the side of if we screen for one another, and we set a good a good screen for one another, we know we can get to our spots and hit our shots. And then, just being smart with the ball. I think if the pass is not there, get a shot on the rim and try to offensive rebound rather than just getting a live ball turnover.”

It wasn't the best day for senior forward Alex Karaban. Despite finishing the game with nine points, four rebounds, and four assists, he was one for eight shooting from the field. Regardless, with a win tonight, Karaban will become the tenth player in Division I college basketball history to win at least three championships in four years.

“AK, I think he just holds the standard with this program,” freshman guard Braylon Mullins said of Karaban. “I mean, that's the guy you look up to on the court. He's been through it twice. And just knowing that he has been through it twice, you can use him as an outlet. To make history with Monday for him, I think that's what we're all trying to accomplish. And, it'd be so special for him.”

If UConn wants to make history, then they’re going to have to lean on senior center Tarris Reed Jr., who was exceptional on Saturday, with a team-high 17 points and 11 rebounds. In this year's tournament, he has averaged 20.8 points and 13 rebounds per game.

“These players, they have careers, and it's why you kind of never give up on a player. You stick with a player. You stick with a player because of the characteristics that he has,” Hurley said. “Obviously, he's got enormous talent, but he's a man of great character. He's a man of great faith. He's got great work habits. He's a very humble person. He's just a great, great young man. We’ve all just been waiting for this from him, and this version of him is one of the best players in this tournament, one of the best players left in this tournament. He's played as well as anyone has played in this tournament, and it's all we've ever wanted for him.”

For Michigan, they were in control the entire way in their Final Four matchup with the Arizona Wildcats. They never trailed at any point in the game on their way to a 91-73 thrashing of one of the best teams in college basketball.

“This game was very indicative of how this group has played throughout the season,” explained head coach Dusty May during the postgame press conference. “Unselfish basketball. A connected group who defends, gets out in transition, and then shares the basketball… The one thing we thought really jumped out was our ability to get 50-50 basketballs and be quicker to the ball than Arizona tonight. Just very proud of our effort. What a great group.”

A potentially disastrous moment happened when Wolverines senior forward Yaxel Lendebrog re-aggravated ankle and knee injuries in the first half of the game. Thankfully, he returned to the game and reassured fans that he would play tonight.

"I tried to go up for a dunk in between three people like a dummy," Lendeborg told CBS Sports after the game. "I stepped on (Motiejus) Krivas' foot, turned [and] felt the pain right away. My knee, at worst, is like an MCL sprain... My ankle got re-rolled, so that's bothering me a little bit. But I'm going to feel good, I'm going to do a lot to work on it, and I'm playing on Monday for sure, no matter what."

There wasn't really a need for Lendebrog to return to the game since Michigan had a 16-point halftime lead over Arizona. Still, the University of Alabama at Birmingham transfer started the second half and finished the evening with 11 points and three rebounds in just 14 minutes of gameplay.

“We didn't really get a lot of time to talk to him because we were on the court, and at halftime, he was getting treatment, but we know what type of guy Yaxel is. Like if he could play, he's going to play,” junior guard Elliot Cadeau said after the game. “So we asked him, ‘Are you good?’ He said, ‘Yeah.’ So, we expect him to be on the court, and he told us when he got on the court that he's going to give it his all.”

“I think it just shows you know the guy who Yaxel is,” added freshman guard Trey McKenney. “He just wants to put it all on the floor for Michigan, and he wants to give the fans what they came here for. I'm just really grateful to have him as a teammate. He's one of the best players in the country, and he really showed that tonight.”

For as good as Lendeborg has been, the best player on the court Saturday was Michigan center Aday Mara. The 7'3" big man led all players with 26 points, while snagging nine rebounds.

“Aday's really come a long way with his strength and also just his mindset,” Dusty May said. “Aday’s put a lot of work [in]. Obviously, it takes time to grow into this role. He's physically more mature than he was… We went back, and we looked at his film playing with the Spanish national team, playing for Zaragoza, and he had shown glimpses of this… He's playing ball at a high level, and he's added a lot to our program.”

For Michigan, this is relatively uncharted territory. But for the Huskies, they’re "conditioned to win" as Dusty May described on Sunday.

“They win when they play well. They win when they don't play well,” he explained. “They take what the game gives them. They ride a hot hand or ride a matchup. And so there's just a number of challenges. You can't go into this game saying, ‘If we do this, we're going to win,' because even if we do that well, they're going to pivot, and then we're going to have to find a way to counter that pivot.”

At the same time, Dan Hurley had high praise for Michigan. He said that the Wolverines present "lots" of challenges.

“This is one of the most dominant teams, and there's just no real holes in their attack,” said Hurley. “They're an elite defensive team. They're an elite offensive team. They crush the glass. They're one of the best-coached teams. They're deep. They're as well-rounded a team as you're going to play. And for us, going for a third championship in four years, it's fitting that this is the mountain that we'll have to climb to try to get there.”

Prediction for #2 UConn Huskies vs. #1 Michigan Wolverines (-7)

If you've watched Michigan at all during March Madness this year, it's no secret that they have been killing their opponents. Hell, the Wolverines have beaten NCAA Tournament teams by an average of 21.6 points per game. Still, it’s insulting to UConn that Michigan is favored by seven points in this matchup. This game will be decided by three points at most, so it's safe to assume that UConn will cover the spread tonight.

As we previously discussed, Tarris Reed Jr. has looked like one of the best players in this year's tournament. However, UConn has not gone up against a defensive powerhouse like Michigan. Of the five March Madness games that the Huskies have played, Duke has been the best at defending two-point field goal attempts, allowing opponents to make just 46.4% of those shots, which is 18th in the country. Meanwhile, the Wolverines have the best rim-protecting center in the country in Aday Mara. And, if that wasn't enough, Michigan opponents have the second-lowest success rate of any team in the country in terms of two-point field goal attempts (44.1%). Tarris Reed will be good, but going against Aday Mara will prevent him from taking over the game the way he has in UConn's other March Madness matchups.

The Wolverines defensive strategy has been incredibly sound. They normally get out to a big lead by halftime or early in the second half and then focus on defending the perimeter because their opponents need to shoot a lot of threes to get back into the game. This is proven by the fact that Michigan's tourney opponents are attempting 32.2 three-pointers per game, 5.2 more than what the Wolverines have allowed during the season (27). Since UConn is ranked 157th in the country in three-point attempts per game (23.8), the Huskies are not going to force a lot of three-pointers. They're going to keep this game close with a focus on pounding the paint.

The injuries to Yaxel Lendeborg are incredibly concerning because he has been the best player in March Madness this year. Obviously, Michigan was dominating the Arizona Wildcats in their Final Four matchup, so he didn't have to play much. But, he'll HAVE to be on the court for more than 14 minutes tonight, even if he's dealing with multiple injuries. His ankle and knee issues will hamper his effectiveness, as was the case on Saturday against Arizona. After averaging 19 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game in the tourney, it would be shocking if Lendeborg can replicate those numbers while injured and facing a dominant UConn defense.

If Yaxel Lendeborg were fully healthy, then Michigan would win the 2026 National Championship. Unfortunately, the knee and ankle injuries will hurt his ability to take over the game. Without Lendeborg being fully healthy to run the offense and be the designated shooter in crunch time, the Huskies will focus their efforts on stopping Aday Mara, which will allow them to be the ones taking home the hardware.

Prediction: UConn 73 - 69 Michigan

How to watch #2 UConn Huskies vs. #1 Michigan Wolverines (-7)

UConn vs. Michigan starts at 8:50 p.m. EDT on Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium. You can watch it on TBS, TNT, or truTV, or stream it via the March Madness app or HBO Max.

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