How to Use Statistical Models in Sports Betting (Beginner-Friendly)

If you are new to sports betting or are simply looking for some tips on how to use stats to your advantage, you have come to the right place! We have put together this article all about using stats for sports betting. It includes a look at what a statistical model is, what you need to know, the different types of sports stats, popular sports in Canada, and more! Keep reading below to find out more.

By LiveScore Desk, Editorial team for sports, betting and casino Last updated: 16 May 2025, 09:07AM

What is a Statistical Model?

A statistical sports betting model is a way of predicting what could happen in an upcoming match, game, or event. It involves using past data and trends to back up your predictions, such as how often a team has won in the past, home and away form, goals scored, shots saved, and much more.

By combining all of that information, bettors can then use this to help them estimate the chances of a particular outcome, such as who may win a game, who is likely to score, and so on.

In short, it is a way to help make the most informed and educated guesses when placing bets, using sports data and stats, as opposed to random guessing.

Popular Sports Betting in Canada

When it comes to betting on sports in Canada, some are much more popular than others. We have taken a look at some of these below.

NHL

Made up of 32 teams, 25 in the United States, and seven in Canada, the NHL is considered the biggest ice hockey league in the world. The season runs from October through to April and includes another big event on the annual sporting calendar worldwide: The Stanley Cup. The seven teams from Canada include the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Maple Leafs, Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks, Calgary Flames, Winnipeg Jets, and the Ottawa Senators.

NFL

One of the biggest sports across America and Canada, the NFL is made up of 32 teams. It runs from September to January each year, where the sides play 17 games over 18 weeks, with one bye week. Every February, the world watches the sports' most iconic event, the Super Bowl, take place as two teams battle it out to become champions. It is a sport that sees lots of bettors get involved with due to its busy schedule and unpredictability.

Soccer

One of the most popular sports to wager on amongst keen Canadian bettors is soccer. With betting markets on competitions and leagues from across the world available, there is something for every bettor's preference. There are also local leagues and Major League Soccer (MLS) markets available for bettors who want to wager on their home sides.

What you need to know

Before applying stats to sports betting, it is important that bettors understand the basics of betting and probability.

Odds

Canadian sports betting odds will be in decimal format. For example, odds of 2.00 mean bettors will get $2 total for every $1 bet.

Probability

Bettors can turn decimal odds into implied probability to see what the sportsbook thinks the chance of a specific outcome has. To do this, follow this simple method: 1 / Decimal Odds x 100.

Value

Value betting involves identifying any odds that may be underpriced, when your research leads to you thinking a certain outcome is higher than what the odds at a sportsbook suggest.

Types of Sports Stats

When looking at sports statistics, there can be so much information available. We have reviewed the three main categories to focus on for sports bettors in Canada.

Performance

Performance stats provide insights into parts of the game, including possession, shot accuracy, player ratings, and defensive stats. These help bettors to get an idea of how a team is performing in recent games and over time, what parts of the game could be letting them down, as well as what parts could be behind their success. These stats can help bettors place more strategic bets.

Historical Data

This involves looking at previous games, results and performances to identify any trends that may have developed. These include head-to-head records between sides, and historical outcomes in similar conditions or situations. Historic data can help bettors to identify patterns and contribute towards the accuracy of their predictions.

Real-Time Updates

Crucial for live betting, real-time updates provide all of the latest information and updates on a game. This includes injuries, substitutes, and shifts in momentum. Being able to see this data allows bettors to react quickly and place informed bets based on how a match or game is currently going at that moment.

How to apply stats into your Sports Betting

To ensure that you apply stats to your sports bets as effectively as possible, we have covered the key things you need to keep in mind.

Choose a sport you know

Select a sport to bet on that you follow or are familiar with, as not only will this mean you have knowledge and understanding of the basic rules of the game, but you will also know what to look out for when identifying value bets, underpriced selections, and what data to refer to.

Research & Gather data

Before an event starts, do your research and check out any relevant stats for the teams and players involved. Look at historical data, how have the previous meetings between the two sides turned out? Also, look at recent performances to see if a side is in form or struggling. Look at key metrics relevant to the sport, such as xG (expected goals), possession, goal scorers, defensive stats, head-to-heads, as well as the latest odds at sportsbooks, to see if they are leaning in favour of either side.

Use Reliable Sources

It is vital to use reliable sources when getting your stats and information before a game. This includes getting your odds and stats from licensed, recognized sportsbooks such as bet365, official websites such as sports news sites, club and league platforms such as the official NHL site, sports organizations' sites, including FIFA, and stat platforms such as Opta.