Burnley vs Norwich predictions: Little to pick between promotion hopefuls

Ante-post Championship title favourites Norwich sit a point and a place off top spot while Burnley, who were sixth in the pre-season promotion markets, lie fifth in the table.

In truth, any concerns about early season performances always seemed premature. 

Burnley won only one of their first five league outings but Vincent Komany’s side were creating chances and dominating the ball even as they adapted to his possession-based style. 

Their subsequent run of three wins and a draw at West Brom — in a game they led until the 98th minute — from their last four games shows that the Clarets only ever needed a few tweaks and a change in fortune to get the promotion push on track. 

Norwich’s stutter was more genuine after they fell hard from their chastening Premier League campaign. 

However, Canaries supporters will not have been unduly concerned after experiencing a similar start in each of their previous two seasons in the second tier — both times they started with a wobble before finishing with a Championship trophy in the Carrow Road cabinet. 

Sure enough, five consecutive victories followed a return of one point from their first three league outings and Norwich fans will be hoping that their Championship campaign is once again following a familiar path. 

Team news 

Burnley goalkeeper Arijanet Muric was forced off injured for the second time in a week at West Brom last Friday but Vincent Kompany believes Muric will be fit to face Norwich. 

Ashley Westwood is out until November as he recovers from a broken ankle and while Kevin Long and Scott Twine are much closer to returning, neither is expected back on Friday. 

Norwich have been struggling with a lengthy injury list all season. Dimitris Giannoulis, Liam Gibbs and Jacob Sorensen are all out with ankle injuries and while Isaac Hayden is closing in on a return from the knee injury that has delayed his Norwich debut, he still has a couple of weeks to go. 

Sam McCallum is out until December with a broken foot and youngster John Rowe is still absent with a shin injury. 

The stats 

Norwich have won their last five Championship matches, beating Sunderland and Birmingham on the road as well as picking up three victories at Carrow Road. 

However, four of their five wins have come against teams currently in the bottom half. 

Norwich’s two meetings with teams in the top half have returned a 2-1 defeat at 12th-placed Hull and a rather fortunate 1-0 victory at eighth-placed, managerless Sunderland. 

Burnley have also enjoyed a kind run of fixtures and have faced only one top-ten opponent. 

That returned a 1-0 defeat at Watford but even Hornets boss Rob Edwards admitted his side was lucky. That game — in which Burnley had 64% possession and only conceded one shot on target — remains Kompany’s only defeat in nine outings in all competitions. 

Prediction 

Both teams will go into this match in high spirits after a run of positive results but both arguably have something yet to prove given their kind fixtures. 

That is particularly the case for Norwich, whose three home wins have come against bottom two Coventry and Huddersfield and against a Millwall side who rarely impress on the road and currently own the second-worst away record in the Championship. 

Norwich’s away record of two defeats and two victories — both of which required late winners — is probably a better indicator of their current level than the five-match winning run. 

The Canaries are certainly improving and boast one of the strongest squads in the division but this trip to Turf Moor will be their first serious test this season. 

Burnley are unfortunate not to have more points and will deny Norwich their fair share of possession that they normally enjoy. 

A game of fine margins could be won by a mistake or moment of quality on either side, but a draw looks the most likely outcome.