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Wales vs Turkey predictions: Talented Turks can clinch top spot
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Daniel Childs
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Vincenzo Montella's Turkey warmed up for the Wales trip with a 3-2 win in Germany
Vincenzo Montella's Turkey warmed up for the Wales trip with a 3-2 win in Germany

- Turkey have won eight of their last 11 matches 
- Turkey have scored the first goal in four of their last five competitive fixtures 
- Recommended bet: Turkey draw no bet

Wales have an outside chance of automatic qualification for next year's European Championship but it is dependent on them defeating Group D leaders Turkey at the Cardiff City Stadium.

A place in next year’s play-offs looks a far more likely scenario for Wales, who can only secure a top-two finish if they succeed against Turkey, and Croatia fail to win at home to Armenia.

Rob Page’s side are two points below Croatia and five adrift of Turkey, who clinched qualification with last month’s 4-0 victory at home to Latvia.

Turkey warmed up for their Welsh trip with a 3-2 friendly success away to Germany, and they need just a point to seal top spot in the section.

Team news

Wales have been unable to select Wes Burns (shoulder), Aaron Ramsey and Regan Poole (both knee).

Tom Lockyer is expected to step in for suspended defender Chris Mepham, and Brennan Johnson is pushing for a return to the starting line-up after coming off the bench during Saturday’s 1-1 draw away to Armenia.

Captain Hakan Calhanoglu (illness) and attacker Cengiz Under (unspecified injury) have had to withdraw from the Turkey squad.

Winger Yunus Akgun (thigh) and Orkun Kokcu (foot) missed out on the original selection.

The stats

Saturday's 1-1 draw in Armenia means Rob Page's Wales need help from elsewhere to qualify automatically for Euro 2024
Saturday's 1-1 draw in Armenia means Rob Page's Wales need help from elsewhere to qualify automatically for Euro 2024

Wales are unbeaten in five matches since a 2-0 loss away to Turkey in June.

The Welsh have not scored more than two goals in any of their last 19 competitive fixtures.

Two of Wales’s last four defeats have been by a 2-0 scoreline.

Nine of Wales’s last 11 European Championship qualifying games have generated fewer than three goals.

Turkey have won eight of their last 11 fixtures but six of those successes were by a single goal margin.

The Turks have scored in nine of their last 10 away matches.

Three of Turkey’s last four fixtures have featured at least four goals.

Prediction

Wales were shuffled down to third place in Euro 2024 qualifying Group D after Saturday’s 1-1 draw away to Armenia, and their campaign is likely to conclude with a loss to Turkey at the Cardiff City Stadium.

Rob Page’s side went into the weekend fixture in Yerevan with their fate in their own hands but squandered the opportunity with a nervy, disjointed performance.

A place in the play-offs is looking likely and Wales will need to find a little bit more consistency if they are to realise their ambition of qualifying for a third successive European Championships.

Turkey failed to reach the 2022 World Cup but they have had a strong year, enabling them to wrap up Euro 2024 qualification with a game to spare.

Vincenzo Montella’s side won 1-0 away to qualification rivals Croatia last month and they triumphed 3-2 over Germany in Saturday’s friendly in Berlin.

Defeating such strong teams will have given them a lot of confidence and they have an incentive to do well against Wales because they need a point to seal first place in the group.

The Turks should be expected to maintain their focus and they can register a second away win in four days.

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